随着估值飙升，一些全球投资者正警告人工智能（AI）股票存在泡沫。仿佛人工智能（AI）投资的庞大规模还不够令人不安，全球最大主权财富基金的掌门人也发出了警报。
挪威政府全球养老基金（GPFG）首席执行官尼古拉·唐根上周警告称，如果出现极端市场崩盘，其2.4万亿美元（2.07万亿欧元）投资组合遭受巨额亏损“并非完全不可能”。该基金成立的目的是投资这个北欧国家庞大的石油和天然气收入，今年前六个月实现了创纪录的17530亿挪威克朗（1860亿美元/1610亿欧元）利润。
尼古拉·唐根是挪威主权财富基金的负责人，在其执掌期间，该基金实现了创纪录的增长。然而，唐根警告称，AI芯片交易——其高估值曾帮助推动这些收益——如今构成了严重风险。他警告说，一场急剧回调可能会抹去过去30年积累的巨额财富中的很大一部分。
在唐根所称的低税收、低通胀和低利率的“异常”时期，这些投资如今为挪威政府约四分之一的预算提供资金。
尽管坦根听起来可能过于危言耸听，但主权财富基金领域的顶尖研究者比尔·梅金森认为，许多资深基金经理对股票估值持同样谨慎的态度，只是“忐忑不安地按兵不动”。俄克拉荷马大学金融学教授梅金森对德国之声表示：“当如此基础性的技术建设——由史无前例的资本支出水平推动——几乎没有显露出脆弱迹象时，很少有基金经理倾向于获利了结。”
在竞相匹配或超越人类智能的竞赛中，大型科技公司预计将在芯片、数据中心和电力基础设施等人工智能相关领域投资超过1万亿美元。
人工智能正在监视、追踪、设陷阱和监控 要观看此视频，请考虑升级到支持HTML5视频的网页浏览器。与此同时，中国正以远低于美国竞争对手的成本开发强大的人工智能模型。国际清算银行在6月警告称，如果回报达不到预期，人工智能的“过度繁荣”可能以崩盘告终。
为何挪威财富基金难以轻松对冲风险 与沙特阿拉伯或新加坡的主权财富基金不同——后者在私募股权、基础设施和房地产领域进行大规模投资——挪威主要遵循基于基准的投资策略，购买追踪全球主要市场的指数基金。
科技板块约占该基金股票投资的三分之一。"The oil fund follows a very passive, broadly diversified global index strategy," Karin Thorburn, research chair in finance at the Norwegian School of Economics, told DW. Although this approach "eliminates a lot of the uncertainty of picking individual stocks," Thorburn said Norway's GPFG fund managers have "almost no room to deviate from the index or actively hedge." A strict government mandate means the Norwegian fund cannot take significant protective positions, including holding large amounts of cash. Most institutional investors, on the other hand, hedge by buying options or futures, which rise in value when regular investments like stocks drop, offsetting some of the declines. Thorburn, who served on a 2022 Norwegian government panel probing the growing geopolitical risks to the fund, said portfolio managers trust in the collective knowledge of the financial markets."If you were to start betting against the markets, you could be right 50% of the time, but also wrong 50% of the time," she said. "So wisely, the government has decided that we don't do that." How vulnerable is Norway's fund to an AI-driven sell-off?
Javier Capape, a Madrid-based sovereign wealth fund specialist, thinks Norway is "unusually exposed" through its investment strategy of roughly 70% equities and 30% bonds."I would not describe Norway as literally 'unhedged,'" Capape said, noting that Norges Bank Investment Management, a unit at the central bank that manages the country's sovereign wealth fund, also uses currency, interest-rate and equity derivatives to protect against a crash.挪威的战略也与伯克希尔·哈撒韦形成鲜明对比。伯克希尔·哈撒韦直到去年仍由全球最成功的投资者之一沃伦·巴菲特执掌，目前坐拥约3650亿美元现金和短期美国国债。
不过，挪威的基金确实受益于其北海油田持续流入的石油和天然气收入。2026年，这预计将相当于630亿欧元。
私募股权和房地产也面临风险。尽管其在亚洲和中东的同行更加多元化，但它们在另类投资中面临类似风险。
由于严重的流动性紧缩，一些私募股权基金已暂时暂停或限制投资者赎回。自新冠疫情以来，商业房地产表现不佳，尤其是写字楼板块。
Capape noted how globally, these alternative investments now account for 24% of sovereign wealth fund portfolios. Nvidia has partnered with six Wall Street firms to boost spending on AI infrastructure by more than $500 billion According to the Sovereign Wealth Funds Report 2026, these funds now manage more than $15 trillion in assets worldwide, up from roughly $3-4 trillion during the 2008/09 financial crisis. They are now "the single most important global source of investment capital for both private equity funds and direct investment in public companies," Megginson said. How much could an AI-driven market correction cost Norway?
After a sharp pullback in June and July, many AI-related stocks have rebounded, with Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft rising in the double digits in recent weeks.一些分析师现在预计，人工智能股票将在年底前创下历史新高。不过，接下来会发生什么谁也说不准。
“挪威银行投资管理公司本身已对人工智能回调进行了压力测试，估计这种情景可能使整个基金的价值缩水约18%，”卡帕佩表示。
这将意味着该基金价值蒸发约4320亿欧元，相当于挪威近七年的能源收入。编辑：蒂姆·鲁克斯