这已是共识。一项大型调查中接受调查的所有分析师都预计，日本央行将在本周加息。

不太明朗的是接下来会发生什么，市场不确定日本央行是会开启更高利率的路径，还是继续坚持不置可否、外交辞令式的表态。

日本央行行长植田和男周五在该行为期两天的政策会议结束后举行记者会时，可能会提供一些指引。

“我认为关键在于植田行长将如何避免释放鸽派信号，并表明央行已准备好在不久的将来进行下一次加息，”Gaitame.com研究所外汇分析师中村勉表示。

分析师表示，日元近期反弹的部分原因在于，市场认为日本央行将转向更鹰派的立场，此前美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特上月评论称该央行将采取行动。

在9月4日至9月10日期间接受调查的全部52位经济学家都认为，日本央行将在本周的会议上把利率从目前的1%上调至1.25%。

Totan IC的数据显示，市场预计年底前再次加息的概率约为85%。这将标志着明显加速，因为该央行此前大约每六个月才加息一次。

一些分析师不确定植田和男是否会在本周会议后释放收紧政策的信号，因为他以行事谨慎而闻名。

“Gov. Ueda will likely maintain a cautious tone, so he will probably not send particularly hawkish signals,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. Ichikawa said the market is going a bit overboard with pricing in rate increases. It is anticipating five 25-basis point increases over the next two years, which would take the policy rate to 2.25%.“To be honest, I think taking rates over 2% might be a stretch,” Ichikawa said. Aggressive moves higher could lead to a sudden retreat later, and that could be followed by yen weakening, he added. Some analysts note that the BOJ’s tone will depend on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates on Wednesday. As inflation remains an issue, markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a Fed rate increase, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. During a news conference after the July policy meeting, Ueda emphasized inflation risks.“Given that underlying inflation is approaching our 2% price stability target, we must pay even closer attention to upside inflation risks,” he said. The governor reiterated that the central bank intends to raise rates if economic and price data track its forecasts, adding that it will monitor other factors, including the Middle East situation,artificial intelligence-related demand and the currency markets. According to BOJ data from last week, wholesale inflation was 7.6% in July in Japan, above 7% for a third consecutive month on elevated oil prices and rising AI-related demand. The yen has rallied steadily against the dollar since Sept. 2. It went from just above ¥160 on Sept. 1 to as far as ¥152.9 last week — levels not seen since Feb. 17.周一下午，日元兑美元汇率约为1美元兑154.1日元。

一些分析师认为，日元近期走强很可能并非干预的结果，他们表示，日元汇率波动速度还不够快，不足以表明存在官方买入。