巴基斯坦连续第三次会议维持基准利率不变，决策者正在支持增长的必要性与中东冲突带来的不断上升的通胀风险之间寻求平衡。

巴基斯坦国家银行周一发表声明称，将目标利率维持在11.5%。接受调查的大多数分析师此前预计到了这一决定。

这一决定出台之际，巴基斯坦正寻求在2023年濒临主权违约后维持经济复苏，而这场冲突可能推高进口成本并使其对外财政承压。

信用评级上调以及创纪录的30亿美元垃圾债券发行，凸显了投资者信心的改善。但该国仍易受能源冲击影响，此前今年早些时候油价飙升曾威胁侵蚀其外汇储备。

Those risks are already feeding into inflation. Consumer prices accelerated to a faster-than-expected 11.15% in August, driven by higher food and energy costs and complicating the central bank’s efforts to bolster growth. Any further escalation of the US-Iran war could intensify those pressures, with a significant share of Pakistan’s energy supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan’s stronger financial position has also translated into improved sovereign ratings. Moody’s Ratings upgraded the country last month, citing a stronger external position, better fiscal metrics and lower domestic financing costs, following a similar move by S&P Global Ratings in July.巴基斯坦国家银行预计，2027财年通胀率将保持在5%至7%之间，而GDP增长预计为3.5%至4.5%。经常账户余额预计占GDP的0%至1%。9月份欧元债券的发行，加上巴基斯坦国家银行大量购买外汇，帮助外汇储备提升至214亿美元。