市场观察人士预计,由于能源价格上涨以及与伊朗的紧张关系持续,美联储将在周三将联邦基金目标利率上调0.25个百分点。对消费者而言,在美国家庭已面临财务压力之际,此举可能推高借贷成本。
消费者价格指数——衡量通胀的广泛指标——上月继续攀升,使8月份的年通胀率达到3.4%。政府数据显示,油价和天然气价格上涨是一个重要因素。
美联储主席凯文·沃什表示,致力于将通胀降至美联储2%的目标水平。如果美联储为抑制通胀而加息,这将是央行三年多来的首次加息。但此举也可能与总统唐纳德·特朗普产生潜在冲突,特朗普一直施压要求降低联邦基金利率。债券遭抛售,股市……为何再平衡策略眼下是明智之选。特朗普提出的5000美元选举红利支票可能刺激经济。经济学家:对高收入者征税以资助社会保障获得两党关注。特朗普宣布为近100万人提供500美元奥巴马医改退款。CNBC财务顾问:最佳财务顾问、顶尖公司排名。CNBC精英:2026年顶级超高净值财富管理公司。美联储设定的联邦基金利率是银行之间隔夜借贷的利率。
尽管消费者并不直接支付这一利率,但联邦基金利率的变化会在整个经济中产生连锁反应,影响许多借贷和储蓄利率。
当美联储提高基准利率时,消费者和企业的借贷成本会上升,这可能会给经济降温,进而抑制通胀。消费者在抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡债务以及其他金融产品上面临更高成本。另一方面,更高的利率也意味着储户可能从存款中获得更多收益。
信用卡利率可能达到历史新高。一般来说,消费者债务的短期利率与最优惠利率紧密挂钩,而最优惠利率通常比联邦基金利率高3个百分点。长期利率则更取决于通胀预期和其他经济因素。
例如,多数信用卡采用浮动利率,因此与美联储的基准利率有直接关联。随着联邦基金利率上升,最优惠利率也会上升,信用卡利率会在一两个结算周期内随之上升。
穆迪首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示:“信用卡利率已经超过20%,一旦美联储加息,这一利率还会进一步上升,可能会创下历史新高。”
汽车贷款一旦发放,利率就是固定的,但美联储加息可能会推高新贷款的利率,而购车者本已难以承受高额的月供。
The average R on a 48-month new car loan is expected to rise by around 12 basis points in the months following a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike, according to a recent analysis by personal finance site WalletHub Although federal student loan rates are fixed for the life of the loan, rates are already higher for new borrowers in the year ahead based on the last 10-year Treasury note auction in May. Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the Libor prime or Treasury bill rates, so as the Fed raises rates, those borrowers will also pay more in interest. How much more, however, depends on the benchmark. Fed hike may have a mixed impact on home loans Longer-term loans follow long-term Treasury rates. When the yield on the 10-year Treasury note which underpins most mortgages topped 4.95% last week — the highest level since October 2023 — the average interest rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage surpassed 7% for the first time in over a year."A Fed hike would not automatically mean higher 30-year mortgage rates," said LoanDepot's chief investment officer and head economist Jeff DerGurahian. "If the market prices in the move ahead of time and the Fed presents it as a measured step to bring inflation back to 2%, investors could view it as positive for longer-term bonds." "If that message lands, longer-term Treasury yields could hold steady or move lower, allowing 30-year mortgage rates to do the same. It's essentially the Fed tapping the brakes now to keep inflation from gaining speed later," DerGurahian said.其他住房贷款对美联储的行动感受更为直接。可调整利率抵押贷款(ARM)和房屋净值信用额度(HELOC)都与最优惠利率挂钩。大多数ARM在初始固定利率期结束后每年调整一次。但HELOC利率会立即调整。“一个可能被忽视的好处”存款利率往往与联邦基金目标利率的变化相关,这对储户有利。
“利率上升的一个可能被忽视的好处是,有机会为储蓄获取更高的收益,”经济分析师、《哈姆里克简报》创始人马克·哈姆里克表示。
“无论是借贷还是储蓄,货比三家以获取最佳利率都很重要,这样可以避免多付利息并最大化回报,”哈姆里克说。