字号 ·· | 护眼
time

人工智能在最糟糕的时刻到来了

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

人工智能(AI)并非降临到一个能够妥善接纳它的世界中;相反,它进入的是一个在过去二十年里系统性地破坏了那些让我们能够负责任地运用这项强大技术的根基的社会。制度权威、共同的价值观以及信息的真实性都遭到了严重破坏。我们正在这个充满信任危机的社会中,构建人类历史上最复杂的认知技术。

AI is not arriving in a world capable of receiving it. Instead, it is coming into a world that has spent the last two decades systematically dismantling the very foundations that would allow us to deploy such a powerful technology responsibly. Institutional authority, shared truth, and information integrity have been battered. We are building the most sophisticated cognitive technology in human history atop the most fractured trust landscape in modern memory.

如果你想设计一个对人工智能发展极为不利的时机,或许就会创造出这样的时刻。

If you wanted to design the worst possible moment for AI to emerge, you might create a moment like this one.

从“后真相时代”到“后信任时代”:十年前,我们还在担忧自己生活在一个“后真相”的世界中。2016年,《牛津词典》将“post-truth”(后真相)选为年度词汇,将其定义为“客观事实在塑造公众舆论方面的影响力低于情感诉求和个人信念”的状态。在后真相时代,事实依然存在,但往往被情感化的叙述所掩盖。

From post-truth to post-trust A decade ago, we worried about living in a “post-truth” world. Oxford Dictionaries selected “post-truth” as its Word of the Year in 2016, defining it as circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief. Post-truth describes a world where facts still exist but are often overshadowed by emotional narratives.

然而我们现在所经历的危机更为严重。我将其称为“后信任时代”:在这个时代,那些构建信任的机制已经彻底崩溃。问题不仅仅在于情感有时会凌驾于事实之上,更在于我们早已失去了判断什么是事实的共同标准。

What we are experiencing now goes deeper. I call this the “post-trust era:” a world where the very mechanisms that allow us to establish trust have broken down. It is not just that emotions sometimes trump facts. It is that we have lost shared foundations for deciding what counts as a fact in the first place.

看看过去二十年里我们的信息生态系统发生了什么变化:我们曾经生活在一个由编辑筛选真相、出版社出版内容、少数知名中介机构负责信息传播的世界;如今,任何人都可以发布信息、放大或歪曲事实,甚至伪造内容。数据量激增,社交媒体进一步分裂了受众群体。算法开始优先考虑点击量、用户参与度以及内容的刺激性(而非内容的真实性)。社会的激励机制也发生了根本性的变化:人们追求的是信息的传播速度(而非准确性),愤怒情绪取代了理性分析,速度取代了细致的审查。

Look at what has happened to our information ecosystem over the past two decades. We moved from a world in which truth was curated by editors, printed by presses, and distributed by a small number of recognizable intermediaries, to a world in which anyone can publish, amplify, distort, or fabricate. Data exploded, and social media fragmented audiences. Algorithms began optimizing for clicks, engagement, and sensationalism. The incentives shifted from accuracy to attention: virality over veracity, outrage over nuance, speed over scrutiny.

数据本身就能说明问题。近八成人主要通过社交动态、搜索引擎和聚合器等算法系统获取新闻,实际上将自己的信息摄入外包给了他们既不理解也不完全信任的系统。在美国,对联邦政府的信任度已从20世纪50年代末的70%以上跌至如今的20%以下。大众传媒的公信力下降:不足三分之一的美国人表示甚至有一“相当程度”的信任。宗教机构、金融体系、医疗组织,甚至科学本身,都经历了信任的侵蚀。

The numbers tell their own story. Nearly 8 in 10 people get directed to their news primarily through algorithmic systems such as social feeds, search engines, and aggregators, effectively outsourcing their information diet to systems they neither understand nor fully trust. In the United States, trust in the federal government has fallen from over 70% in the late 1950s to under 20% today. Confidence in mass media has dropped: fewer than one-third of Americans express even a “fair amount” of trust. Religious institutions, financial systems, healthcare organizations, and even science itself have seen trust erode. Post-truth describes a distortion in how people weigh facts and feelings. Post-trust describes a deeper fracture: the loss of shared procedures for determining what is real.

“后真相”描述的是人们权衡事实与情感方式的扭曲。“后信任”则描述了一种更深层的断裂:判断何为真实的共同程序的丧失。

When the first photographs appeared in the 1830s, people marveled at their fidelity. For nearly two centuries, seeing was believing. A picture was not perfect, but it was evidence.

19世纪30年代首批照片出现时,人们惊叹于其真实度。近两个世纪以来,“眼见为实”。照片虽不完美,却是证据。

In early 2023, an AI-generated image of Pope Francis wearing a stylish white puffer jacket spread across social media platforms. It was compelling because it sat in a narrow band between familiar and unexpected. The photo’s style, posture, and lighting borrowed credibility from decades of real photography. Many accepted it as real before they had time to question it.

2023年初,一张教皇方济各身穿时尚白色羽绒服的AI生成图片在社交媒体平台上传播开来。之所以令人信服,是因为它处于熟悉与意外之间的狭窄地带。照片的风格、姿态和光影借用了数十年真实摄影积累的可信度。许多人在来得及质疑之前就已将其视为真实。

In early 2023, an AI-generated image of Pope Francis wearing a stylish white puffer jacket spread across social media platforms. It was compelling because it sat in a narrow band between familiar and unexpected. The photo’s style, posture, and lighting borrowed credibility from decades of real photography. Many accepted it as real before they had time to question it.

两年之内,AI生成的图像、声音和视频已变得无处不在、逼真至极,问题不再是“你能识别假象吗?”,而是“你还能相信你所看到的任何东西吗?”大规模制造可信“证据”的能力已然到来,而我们的信息生态系统恰恰处于最分裂的时刻。杜克大学和纽约大学的研究表明,让人们在社交媒体上接触对立政治观点,可能会加剧而非减少极化。《科学》杂志的一项里程碑式研究发现,虚假新闻在网上传播的速度和广度远超可信新闻。神经影像学研究显示,当人们遇到挑战其政治信念的信息时,与负面情绪相关的大脑区域会被激活,而证实性信息则会激活奖赏通路。我们不仅在对事实的认知上存在分歧,我们的大脑天生就以完全不同的认知通道来处理证实性和非证实性信息。

Within two years, AI-generated images, voices, and video had become so pervasive and so convincing that the question was no longer “can you spot the fake?” but “can you trust anything you see?” The ability to fabricate convincing “evidence” at scale has arrived just as our information ecosystem is most fragmented. Research from Duke and NYU shows that exposing people to opposing political views on social media can increase polarization rather than reduce it. A landmark study in Science found that false news spreads significantly faster and more widely than trustworthy news online. Neuroimaging research suggests that when people encounter information challenging their political beliefs, brain regions associated with negative emotion light up, while confirmatory information activates reward pathways. We are not only divided about facts. We are wired to process confirming and disconfirming information through different cognitive channels altogether.

这就是AI降临的基底:一个信息充裕但信任稀缺的世界,一个共识现实已经碎裂的世界,一个建立共同真相的机制已经瓦解的世界。

That is the substrate into which AI arrives: a world where information is abundant, but trust is scarce, where consensus reality has splintered, and where the mechanisms for establishing shared truth have broken down.

一种不同的智能 在这个碎裂的基底之上,某种真正全新的东西到来了。它不仅仅是一种工具,而是历史上第一种以认知为核心能力的科技。

A different kind of intelligence Into this fractured substrate arrives something genuinely new. Not just another tool, but the first technology in history whose core competence is cognition.

过往的科技延伸了我们的能力,却始终从属于人类思维。印刷机放大了我们选择印刷的文字。电力转化了我们决定驾驭的能量。内燃机替代了我们使用的肌肉力量,计算机执行了我们编写的计算。互联网传播了我们撰写的讯息。

Past technologies extended our capabilities while remaining subordinate to human thought. The printing press amplified the words we chose to print. Electricity transformed the energy we decided to harness. Combustion engines replaced the muscle power we used, and computers executed calculations we programmed. The internet distributed the messages we wrote.

人工智能打破了这一模式。它不再仅仅执行任务,而是生成论点、综合信息、提出建议,并创作出在人类层面感觉像是他人思想的创造性作品。单一模型可以撰写文章、总结法律庭审记录、翻译医疗笔记、编写代码、规划营销活动以及创作音乐。

AI breaks that pattern. It no longer merely executes tasks. It generates arguments, synthesizes information, makes recommendations, and produces creative work that feels, at a human level, like someone else’s thoughts. A single model can write an essay, summarize a legal transcript, translate a medical note, draft code, plan a marketing campaign, and compose music.

大多数此类系统的核心是一种通过预测序列中下一个元素(无论是单词、像素还是标记)来学习的架构。这些模型并不以人类理解的方式知晓“真相”。它们只是在所接收的数据中发现模式、频率和相关性。

At the heart of most of these systems is an architecture that learns by predicting what comes next, a word, pixel, or token, in a sequence. These models do not know “truth” in the way humans understand it. They discover patterns, frequencies, and correlations in whatever data they are given.

而时机在此刻变得至关重要:它们所接收的数据产生于一个后信任时代。

And here is where the timing becomes critical: the data they are given is generated in a post-trust world.

人工智能是在我们的新闻报道、社交媒体动态、数字化书籍、带有偏见的档案、两极分化的辩论、阴谋论、科学突破以及错误信息的基础上进行训练的。它不仅吸收了我们的知识,也吸收了我们的扭曲;它不仅学习了我们的事实,也学习了我们围绕这些事实产生的冲突。

AI is trained on our news stories, our social media feeds, our digitized books, our biased archives, our polarized debates, our conspiracy theories, our scientific breakthroughs, and our misinformation. It absorbs not only our knowledge but our distortions. It learns not only our facts but also our conflicts about those facts.

其结果是一面奇怪的镜子。人工智能通过统计模式折射,并借助计算能力放大,将我们映照给我们自己。它基于我们无法彻底审查的训练数据,为我们提供难以轻易审计的答案,并针对我们并不总能控制的目标进行优化。

The result is a strange mirror. AI reflects us to ourselves, refracted through statistical patterns and scaled by computation. It gives us answers we cannot easily audit, based on training data we cannot thoroughly inspect, optimized for objectives we do not always control. A new kind of cognitive infrastructure is emerging at the precise moment our social infrastructure for trust is under strain.

就在我们的社会信任基础设施承受巨大压力的精确时刻,一种新型认知基础设施正在浮现。

Excerpted from The Trust Code with permission from Tiffany Xingyu Wang.