就像那些始终难以捉摸却又频繁被提及的“大脚怪”（Bigfoot）或“尼斯湖水怪”（Loch Ness Monster）一样，偶尔也会传出一些荒诞的传闻，称共和党议员们会集体脱离唐纳德·特朗普的领导。
Just like the ever-elusive yet somehow continual sightings of Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster, it seems that every so often there are fanciful whispers of Republican lawmakers en masse breaking away from President Donald Trump.
然而，实际上特朗普与共和党之间的关系远没有那些新闻标题所描述的那么戏剧性。只要看看民意调查的数据，就能明白为什么某些候选人会采取特定的立场——或者，为什么有些共和党人会逐渐与特朗普疏远。
When it comes to Trump’s relationship with Republicans, though, the actual explanation is far less sensational than many headlines would have us believe. All you really have to do is look at the poll numbers to understand why certain candidates take certain positions — or, in the case of some Republicans, inch away from Trump.
随着许多州开始提前投票的时间越来越近，一些处境不利的共和党人开始冒险在那些他们认为选民会支持的议题上与特朗普持不同意见。换句话说，与其盲目地成为特朗普的忠实追随者却最终失败，不如选择赢得选举后再道歉。
In the past, and out of fear, most Republicans nibbled around the edges when trying to show their independence from Trump.
过去，出于恐惧，大多数共和党人在表达独立立场时都只是小心翼翼、不敢过于激进；但上周，佛罗里达州的共和党众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉扎（Maria Elvira Salazar）却采取了大胆的行动——她通过电视广告直接对特朗普发表了批评言论。
With just a couple of weeks to go until early voting starts in many states, a few vulnerable Republicans are taking calculated risks in breaking with Trump on issues they sense their constituents will respond to. In other words, it is better to win and say sorry than to be a loyal foot soldier and lose. In the past, and out of fear, most Republicans nibbled around the edges when trying to show their independence from Trump, but last week Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, R-Fla., took a big public swipe at Trump, running a television ad in which she addressed the president straight to camera:
“总统先生，您在移民政策方面的某些举措确实有些过激了，”她说，“那些在2024年帮助您当选总统的拉丁裔选民如今感到被背叛了。”
In the past, and out of fear, most Republicans nibbled around the edges when trying to show their independence from Trump, but last week Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, R-Fla., took a big public swipe at Trump, running a television ad in which she addressed the president straight to camera:
在密歇根州，共和党参议院候选人迈克·罗杰斯在新的竞选广告中与特朗普保持了距离，他表示：“与伊朗的战争必须结束，而且要尽快结束。”
“Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” she said. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”
很有可能，这两位候选人正是利用了特朗普“功利主义”的性格特点——他们认为只要自己能够获胜，特朗普或许会因为他们敢于反对自己的立场而对他们表示尊重。对于萨拉扎来说，这确实是一个明智的策略。当被问及是否在看到这则广告后仍支持她时，特朗普回答：“我依然支持她。”由于密歇根州可能是共和党的摇摆席位，特朗普很可能会对罗杰斯的竞选活动保持沉默。但可以肯定的是，如果这些候选人最终获胜，特朗普不仅会将功劳据为己有，还会要求他们绝对服从并保持忠诚，否则他们将面临特朗普的严厉惩罚。
In Michigan, Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, distanced himself from Trump on the war with Iran in a new ad where he says, “The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly.” It is very likely that these two candidates are relying on Trump’s transactional nature and the possibility that he might even respect them for stepping out of line — as long as they win. For Salazar, this was a good bet. While Trump disagreed with her, when asked if he still supported her after he saw the ad, Trump said, “I do and I have.” Because Michigan is a possible pickup seat for Republicans, it is also likely that Trump will stay quiet on Rogers. But there should be little doubt that should these candidates win, not only would Trump take credit for it, he would also demand full obedience and loyalty, lest they feel the full wrath of Trump.
有些候选人试图暗中与特朗普划清界限——这种做法风险更大，更有可能激怒特朗普，而非赢得他的尊重。根据最近的民意调查，佛罗里达州共和党州长候选人布莱恩·唐纳兹与民主党对手势均力敌。唐纳兹已经删除了自己网站上的所有与特朗普相关的内容，包括一个名为“实施特朗普的政策议程”的板块。与萨拉扎或罗杰斯不同，唐纳兹的这种做法实在非常冒险：首先，删除特朗普的支持声明会直接伤害特朗普那极度敏感的自尊心；其次，特朗普根本不尊重那些胆小怕事的人。如果你要反对他，就应该像萨拉扎和罗杰斯那样公开表明立场，而不是试图低调行事、寄希望于特朗普会被其他新闻分散注意力、从而没人注意到你的反对意见。
Some candidates are trying to move away from Trump on the sly — a decidedly riskier move, much more likely to arouse the ire of Trump than earn his respect. Rep. Bryon Donalds, the Republican nominee for governor in Florida, is in a dead heat with his Democratic challenger, according to recent public polling. Donalds scrubbed his website of almost all mentions of Trump, including a now-deleted section titled “Enact the Trump Agenda.” Unlike Salazar or Rogers, Donalds’ is a very dicey move.
有一位共和党人成功地在复杂的政治环境中游刃有余地应对各种挑战。这位名叫迈克·劳勒（Mike Lawler）的纽约州众议员，在2024年的选举中成功连任；他所在的选区中，卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）以49.9%对49.3%的微弱优势赢得了选举，这使得该选区的竞争异常激烈。劳勒巧妙地利用了自己与总统之间的分歧，同时也没有完全与总统划清界限。
For one, taking down a Trump endorsement goes directly to the president’s well-documented ego. Second, Trump doesn’t respect cowards. If you’re going to disagree with him, do it straight on like Salazar and Rogers, not by trying to slip under the radar hoping that Trump is too distracted by other news, and that no one notices. Trump doesn’t respect cowards. If you’re going to disagree with him, do it straight on. There is one Republican who has been able to thread the needle quite well. Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, having won re-election in 2024 in a district that went for Vice President Kamala Harris 49.9% to 49.3%, is in one of the most competitive races in the country. Lawler has used his disagreements with the president strategically, while not completely running away from him.
实际上，劳勒已经掌握了应对特朗普政治策略的“诀窍”：虽然他在5月份曾与特朗普共同举办了一场集会，但他也制作了一则政治广告，自己在广告中声称自己一直在与那些反对州和地方税收减免政策的势力作斗争；广告中还使用了特朗普曾称他为“麻烦制造者”的言论。在参加完共和党中期选举大会（即所谓的“Trumpapalooza”）几周后，劳勒又发布了一则攻击性广告，指责对手凯特·康利（Cait Conley）支持建设数据中心的相关政策。
In essence, Lawler has mastered the Trump weave. While he hosted a rally with Trump in May, he also ran a political ad that included him saying he took on the policial right, with a clip of Trump calling him a “pain in the ass” over fighting for the SALT, or state and local tax, deduction. Then, a couple of weeks after speaking at the Republican midterm convention, aka "Trumpapalooza," Lawler ran an attack ad against his opponent, Cait Conley, on her support for data centers.
确实，有些共和党人正在做出谨慎的决策，试图与特朗普保持一定距离；但大多数共和党人仍然选择支持特朗普。因为他们明白，要想赢得选举就必须依靠特朗普的支持者。同时，他们也担心如果公开反对特朗普，自己会在18个月后面临重新选举的挑战，因此害怕因此受到党内其他成员的报复。
So yes, some Republicans are making calculated decisions to edge away from Trump. But the majority of them are sticking with the president. That’s because they know they need his voters to win, and they are afraid of moving against him because they will be up for re-election 18 months from now and are understandably afraid of retribution in a primary.
共和党并没有抛弃特朗普；当然，也有一些罕见的例外情况——就在上周，犹他州的参议员约翰·柯蒂斯（John Curtis）采取了前所未有的行动，他公开要求对唐纳德·特朗普之子（Donald Trump Jr.）和亨特·拜登（Hunter Biden）展开调查。不过，柯蒂斯直到2030年才需要面临重新选举。
The Republican Party isn’t leaving Trump. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some rare exceptions of course — just this past week Sen. John Curtis of Utah went where no Republican has gone before, targeting a member of the Trump family by calling for an investigation of both Donald Trump Jr. and Hunter Biden. Then again, Curtis isn’t up for re-election until 2030.