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彼得·蒂尔表示,他担心JD·万斯或马可·鲁比奥很难在2028年获胜。

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贝宝(PayPal)的联合创始人彼得·蒂尔(Peter Thiel)对2028年共和党会推出哪位候选人感到担忧,即使这位候选人是他自己的盟友——副总统杰德·万斯(JD Vance)也不例外。蒂尔在周四发布的《MD Meets》播客节目中接受Axel Springer首席执行官马蒂亚斯·多普夫纳(Mathias Döpfner)的采访时说:“我仍然支持万斯。但我担心无论哪位候选人获胜都会非常困难。因此,我的悲观看法是:这个问题本身就有问题。”多普夫纳特别询问了蒂尔,认为万斯还是国务卿马可·卢比奥(Marco Rubio)更适合成为2028年的共和党候选人。在进入政界之前,万斯曾在蒂尔共同创立的Mithril Capital公司工作。在万斯的新回忆录中,他提到了蒂尔对自己人生产生的影响,并称蒂尔是“我遇到过的最聪明的人”。在2022年俄亥俄州共和党参议院初选中,蒂尔向支持万斯的超级政治行动委员会(super PAC)捐赠了1500万美元;这一捐款,加上特朗普的支持,帮助万斯赢得了选举。蒂尔自称为自由主义者,如今已成为共和党的重要捐赠者,但他基本上没有参与2024年的选举活动。今年早些时候,他还向一个致力于推动加州实施一次性财富税的团体捐赠了300万美元。今年2月,特朗普对记者表示,他和万斯都是“非常出色的人”,自己无需为继任者问题担忧。关于特朗普会支持谁,以及还有哪些共和党人会参选的问题,将在11月中期选举之后变得更加激烈——因为这通常是白宫候选人开始行动的时期。蒂尔告诉多普夫纳,他更关注民主党内部的情况。他认为,如果共和党在11月的选举中遭遇惨败,民主党可能会选择一位民主社会主义者作为2028年的候选人。

PayPal cofounder Peter Thiel says he's worried about whoever Republicans put forth in 2028, even if it's his ally Vice President JD Vance. During an interview on the "MD Meets" podcast posted on Thursday, Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner asked Thiel whether he thinks Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be a better GOP standard-bearer in 2028. "I am still a Vance partisan," Thiel said. "I worry that it will be very hard for either candidate to win. And so, I don't know, my pessimistic thought is that that's the wrong question." Before he entered politics, Vance worked at Mithril Capital, a firm Thiel cofounded. In his new memoir, Vance wrote about Thiel's effect on his life and called his mentor "possibly the smartest person I'd ever met." During Vance's heated 2022 Ohio US Senate GOP primary, Thiel donated $15 million to a pro-Vance super PAC, which, alongside Trump's endorsement, helped propel the future vice president to victory. Thiel, who has described himself as a libertarian, has become a GOP megadonor, though he mostly stayed away from the 2024 election. Earlier this year, Thiel made a $3 million donation to a group that has worked to propose California's proposed one-time wealth tax. In February, Trump told reporters that both men were "fantastic" and he didn't have to worry about his successor. Speculation about who Trump will endorse and what other, if any, Republicans will enter the field will increase after November's midterm elections, the traditional time when White House hopefuls begin to make their moves. Instead of focusing on the GOP, Thiel told Döpfner that he's more interested in what happens inside the Democratic Party. Thiel said that a potential GOP wipeout this November could lead Democrats to choose a democratic socialist as their nominee in 2028. Prediction markets widely expect Democrats to retake the House (which is in line with historic norms), but it remains to be seen which party will win the Senate. "The Democrats will think that they will win no matter what in 2028," Thiel said. "And therefore, there probably will not be, you know, as strong a firewall against — it won't pull out all the stops to prevent a democratic socialist from winning." Thiel said a democratic socialist winning the nomination, which he gives a roughly 50% chance of occurring, would be like "the end of America." "The Democratic Party is the more important party," he said. "That is the establishment party in the U.S. The Republican Party is always a little bit anti-establishment. So, if the democratic socialists take over the Democratic Party, that's a much bigger deal." Before Trump won in 2016, a member of the Bush family had been on the ballot for either president or vice president in 1980 through 2004. Trump defeated former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush en route to winning the 2016 nomination. Since then, he has reshaped the GOP in his image. The interview was conducted ahead of Thiel receiving the media company's "Axel Springer Award," which honors "individuals whose achievements have had a lasting impact on business, society, or technological progress." Axel Springer, which, among other publications, owns Business Insider, Politico, The Daily Telegraph, and Bild, previously bestowed the recognition on figures such as Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

预测市场普遍认为民主党将重新掌控众议院(这符合历史规律),但参议院的归属仍悬而未决。蒂尔(Thiel)表示:“民主党人会认为无论结果如何,他们在2028年都会获胜;因此,他们可能不会竭尽全力去阻止民主社会主义者的当选。”他认为民主社会主义者获得提名(他估计这种可能性约为50%)将意味着“美国的终结”。他进一步指出:“民主党才是美国最重要的政党,它是美国的‘建制派政党’;而共和党则总是带有反建制派的倾向。因此,如果民主社会主义者掌控了民主党,那将是一个极其重大的事件。”

PayPal cofounder Peter Thiel says he's worried about whoever Republicans put forth in 2028, even if it's his ally Vice President JD Vance. During an interview on the "MD Meets" podcast posted on Thursday, Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner asked Thiel whether he thinks Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be a better GOP standard-bearer in 2028. "I am still a Vance partisan," Thiel said. "I worry that it will be very hard for either candidate to win. And so, I don't know, my pessimistic thought is that that's the wrong question." Before he entered politics, Vance worked at Mithril Capital, a firm Thiel cofounded. In his new memoir, Vance wrote about Thiel's effect on his life and called his mentor "possibly the smartest person I'd ever met." During Vance's heated 2022 Ohio US Senate GOP primary, Thiel donated $15 million to a pro-Vance super PAC, which, alongside Trump's endorsement, helped propel the future vice president to victory. Thiel, who has described himself as a libertarian, has become a GOP megadonor, though he mostly stayed away from the 2024 election. Earlier this year, Thiel made a $3 million donation to a group that has worked to propose California's proposed one-time wealth tax. In February, Trump told reporters that both men were "fantastic" and he didn't have to worry about his successor. Speculation about who Trump will endorse and what other, if any, Republicans will enter the field will increase after November's midterm elections, the traditional time when White House hopefuls begin to make their moves. Instead of focusing on the GOP, Thiel told Döpfner that he's more interested in what happens inside the Democratic Party. Thiel said that a potential GOP wipeout this November could lead Democrats to choose a democratic socialist as their nominee in 2028. Prediction markets widely expect Democrats to retake the House (which is in line with historic norms), but it remains to be seen which party will win the Senate. "The Democrats will think that they will win no matter what in 2028," Thiel said. "And therefore, there probably will not be, you know, as strong a firewall against — it won't pull out all the stops to prevent a democratic socialist from winning." Thiel said a democratic socialist winning the nomination, which he gives a roughly 50% chance of occurring, would be like "the end of America." "The Democratic Party is the more important party," he said. "That is the establishment party in the U.S. The Republican Party is always a little bit anti-establishment. So, if the democratic socialists take over the Democratic Party, that's a much bigger deal." Before Trump won in 2016, a member of the Bush family had been on the ballot for either president or vice president in 1980 through 2004. Trump defeated former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush en route to winning the 2016 nomination. Since then, he has reshaped the GOP in his image. The interview was conducted ahead of Thiel receiving the media company's "Axel Springer Award," which honors "individuals whose achievements have had a lasting impact on business, society, or technological progress." Axel Springer, which, among other publications, owns Business Insider, Politico, The Daily Telegraph, and Bild, previously bestowed the recognition on figures such as Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

在特朗普于2016年获胜之前,布什家族的成员曾在1980年至2004年间多次参选总统或副总统;特朗普最终击败了前佛罗里达州州长杰布·布什,赢得了2016年的总统提名。自那以后,特朗普按照自己的理念重塑了共和党。这次采访是在蒂尔获得该媒体集团颁发的“Axel Springer奖”之前进行的。该奖项旨在表彰那些对商业、社会或技术进步产生持久影响的个人。Axel Springer集团旗下拥有《Business Insider》、《Politico》、《The Daily Telegraph》和《Bild》等媒体;此前该奖项曾授予过Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格、SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克以及OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·阿尔特曼等人士。

PayPal cofounder Peter Thiel says he's worried about whoever Republicans put forth in 2028, even if it's his ally Vice President JD Vance. During an interview on the "MD Meets" podcast posted on Thursday, Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner asked Thiel whether he thinks Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio would be a better GOP standard-bearer in 2028. "I am still a Vance partisan," Thiel said. "I worry that it will be very hard for either candidate to win. And so, I don't know, my pessimistic thought is that that's the wrong question." Before he entered politics, Vance worked at Mithril Capital, a firm Thiel cofounded. In his new memoir, Vance wrote about Thiel's effect on his life and called his mentor "possibly the smartest person I'd ever met." During Vance's heated 2022 Ohio US Senate GOP primary, Thiel donated $15 million to a pro-Vance super PAC, which, alongside Trump's endorsement, helped propel the future vice president to victory. Thiel, who has described himself as a libertarian, has become a GOP megadonor, though he mostly stayed away from the 2024 election. Earlier this year, Thiel made a $3 million donation to a group that has worked to propose California's proposed one-time wealth tax. In February, Trump told reporters that both men were "fantastic" and he didn't have to worry about his successor. Speculation about who Trump will endorse and what other, if any, Republicans will enter the field will increase after November's midterm elections, the traditional time when White House hopefuls begin to make their moves. Instead of focusing on the GOP, Thiel told Döpfner that he's more interested in what happens inside the Democratic Party. Thiel said that a potential GOP wipeout this November could lead Democrats to choose a democratic socialist as their nominee in 2028. Prediction markets widely expect Democrats to retake the House (which is in line with historic norms), but it remains to be seen which party will win the Senate. "The Democrats will think that they will win no matter what in 2028," Thiel said. "And therefore, there probably will not be, you know, as strong a firewall against — it won't pull out all the stops to prevent a democratic socialist from winning." Thiel said a democratic socialist winning the nomination, which he gives a roughly 50% chance of occurring, would be like "the end of America." "The Democratic Party is the more important party," he said. "That is the establishment party in the U.S. The Republican Party is always a little bit anti-establishment. So, if the democratic socialists take over the Democratic Party, that's a much bigger deal." Before Trump won in 2016, a member of the Bush family had been on the ballot for either president or vice president in 1980 through 2004. Trump defeated former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush en route to winning the 2016 nomination. Since then, he has reshaped the GOP in his image. The interview was conducted ahead of Thiel receiving the media company's "Axel Springer Award," which honors "individuals whose achievements have had a lasting impact on business, society, or technological progress." Axel Springer, which, among other publications, owns Business Insider, Politico, The Daily Telegraph, and Bild, previously bestowed the recognition on figures such as Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.