一个独立组织是最新尝试评估阿尔伯塔省若在未来决定成为主权国家可能需要付出多少代价的团体。
Alberta separation group releases report touting affordable transition to independence Former Alberta Treasury Board senior manager calls plan 'magic' by omitting major expenses An independence organization is the latest group to try to price out what it might cost should Alberta decide in the future to become a sovereign nation.
阿尔伯塔过渡委员会（ATC）本周发布了一份预算和成本核算计划，估计一次性支出约为50亿加元，同时预测独立的阿尔伯塔省每年将拥有222亿至321亿加元的潜在预算盈余。
Alberta separation group releases report touting affordable transition to independence Former Alberta Treasury Board senior manager calls plan 'magic' by omitting major expenses An independence organization is the latest group to try to price out what it might cost should Alberta decide in the future to become a sovereign nation.
“这是负担得起的，这是可行的，实际上完全在阿尔伯塔省目前的能力范围之内。因此我们的观点是，我们可以实现独立，我们可以作为一个独立的国家运作，并且我们在财务上可以取得成功，”ATC财务报告的主要作者丹尼斯·卡尔马（Dennis Kalma）在接受加拿大广播公司新闻部（CBC News）采访时表示。
The Alberta Transition Council (ATC) released a budget and costing plan this week which estimates about $5 billion in one-time expenses, while predicting that an independent Alberta would have a potential budget surplus of between $22.2 to $32.1 billion each year. “This is affordable, this is doable and actually well within the means that Alberta has today. So our view is we can become independent, we can operate as an independent country and we can be successful financially,” said Dennis Kalma, the principal author of the ATC financial reports, in an interview with CBC News.
卡尔马说，每年剩下220亿至320亿加元的资金可以用于不同的优先事项，例如减税、偿还债务、增加储蓄，或改善服务和基础设施。
Having between $22 billion to $32 billion left over every year is money that could be used for different priorities, Kalma said, such as lowering taxes, paying down debt, building savings, or service and infrastructure improvements.
“加拿大是一个更大的组织。它并不以效率著称，而一个较小的国家可以进行一些简化，”卡尔马说。
Having between $22 billion to $32 billion left over every year is money that could be used for different priorities, Kalma said, such as lowering taxes, paying down debt, building savings, or service and infrastructure improvements.
ATC的数据与卡尔加里大学公共政策学院学者的一份类似报告大相径庭。
“Canada is a bigger organization. It's not known for its efficiency and a smaller country could do some simplification,” said Kalma.
一位前国库委员会高级经理称ATC的财务数据是“魔术”，因为它忽略了数千亿加元的成本，同时也没有详细说明对老年人、低收入阿尔伯塔人和父母的财政支持可能面临的削减。
ATC's figures vary drastically from a similar report by academics at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.
ATC正是此前发布了一份214页“过渡计划”的同一组织，该计划列出了一系列需要从渥太华移交给阿尔伯塔省管辖的法规和机构。
A former treasury board senior manager called the ATC financials “magic” for ignoring hundreds of billions of dollars in costs, while also not detailing potential cuts in financial supports to seniors, low-income Albertans, and parents.
领导阿尔伯塔过渡委员会、同时也是独立组织“让阿尔伯塔决定”（Let Alberta Decide）负责人的律师基思·威尔逊（Keith Wilson）表示，重点不仅仅在于账目是否平衡。
The ATC is the same group that previously released a 214-page “transition plan,” laying out a range of regulations and institutions that would need to transition to Alberta’s control from Ottawa. Lawyer Keith Wilson, who leads the Alberta Transition Council and is also a leader with the independence group Let Alberta Decide, said the important point is not simply whether the books balance.
“问题在于，在阿尔伯塔省承担起一个国家的各项服务和职责后，是否还能剩下有意义的财政空间，”威尔逊在一份新闻稿中说道。“‘魔法’是贯穿始终的主题”这是众多试图设想如果阿尔伯塔省居民决定脱离加拿大，将会发生什么以及需要付出什么代价的报告中的最新一份。
“It is whether there could be meaningful financial room left after Alberta pays for the services and responsibilities of a country,” Wilson said in a news release. ‘Magic a prevailing theme’ This is the latest in a long line of reports trying to envision what would need to happen and what it would cost if Alberta residents decide to leave Canada.
上周，卡尔加里大学公共政策学院估计，建立一个新国家的成本在五年内将介于500亿至1700亿加元之间，且从长期来看极具不可预测性。
Last week, the University of Calgary School of Public Policy estimated that the cost of establishing a new country would range between $50 billion and $170 billion over a five-year period and would be highly unpredictable over the long-term.
前国库委员会高级经理兰尼·卡普兰也为总部位于卡尔加里的智库——加拿大西部基金会的一份报告提供了预测。卡普兰估计，建立一个独立的阿尔伯塔省将耗资超过2000亿加元，且每年的持续成本将超过500亿加元。
Former Treasury Board senior manager Lennie Kaplan also contributed a projection to a report from the Canada West Foundation, a Calgary-based think-tank. Kaplan estimated setting up an independent Alberta would cost more than $200 billion, with ongoing costs of more than $50 billion annually.
在审阅了阿尔伯塔省公平中心（ATC）的报告后，卡普兰形容“魔法是贯穿始终的主题”，因为不能理所当然地认为，阿尔伯塔省一旦独立，就能通过经济增长摆脱赤字和债务。
After reviewing the ATC’s reports, Kaplan described “magic as a prevailing theme,” since it should not be assumed that by virtue of Alberta becoming independent it can grow its way out of deficit and debt.
“不确定性和风险被视为可以在脱离后再去协商的事情，”卡普兰在一封电子邮件中表示。ATC“没有对产出、就业或贸易进行建模，也没有对未来任何一年的经济规模做出任何预测。”
“Uncertainties and risks are treated as things to negotiate later on after separation,” said Kaplan in an email. The ATC “does not model output, employment or trade, and it makes no claim about the size of the economy in any future year.”
卡普兰指出，此外，这些报告并未计算继续获得贸易协定准入等问题的成本，这些问题“需要由ATC进行协调”。报告称：建立独立的阿尔伯塔省五年内可能耗资高达1700亿加元。债务、服务削减和军事。专家表示，最大的遗漏在于ATC预设了一个独立的阿尔伯塔省将无需承担其应分摊的联邦债务份额。
In addition, the reports do not cost continued access to trade agreements, among other issues, said Kaplan, which will “need to be reconciled by the ATC.” Debt, service cuts and military The biggest omission, experts say, is the ATC anticipating that an independent Alberta would not inherit its share of the federal debt.
相比之下，卡尔加里大学的报告预测，阿尔伯塔省在承担加拿大联邦债务的一部分后，其债务规模将急剧膨胀，升至3240亿至4423亿加元之间，这将迫使该省在支付债务利息方面比目前多支出数十亿加元。
In contrast, the U of C report forecast Alberta's debt would balloon as it takes on a portion of Canada's federal debt, rising to between $324 billion and $442.3 billion — requiring the province to spend billions more than it currently does on paying that debt's interest.
阿尔伯塔省主权委员会（ATC）解释称，由于尚未就债务结算达成协议，且结果无法预知，因此未将联邦债务纳入考量。
The ATC explained the federal debt was omitted since no settlement has been negotiated and the outcome cannot be known in advance.
对于卡尔加里大学报告的撰稿人、经济学教授特雷弗·汤姆（Trevor Tombe）而言，ATC决定完全不考虑独立后的阿尔伯塔省将承担任何债务，是“一种不切实际的设想”。此外，ATC在国防支出方面未使阿尔伯塔省达到国内生产总值（GDP）2%的国际承诺标准，且未包含针对原住民和梅蒂人的项目支出。
For Trevor Tombe, an economics professor and contributor to the U of C’s report, the ATC’s decision to not account for any debt whatsoever being taken on by an independent Alberta, is “not a realistic scenario to contemplate.” In addition, the ATC does not adhere to military spending to align Alberta with the international commitment of two per cent of GDP and does not include spending on First Nations and Métis programs.
ATC还列举了在“取代加拿大目前为阿尔伯塔省所做的一切”之后所能实现的巨额节省，但汤姆表示，这些数字所设想的“服务规模远低于现有水平”，之所以有结余资金，完全是因为削减了开支。
The ATC also lists considerable savings "after replacing everything Canada does” currently for Alberta, however Tombe said those figures envision “a scale of services that are far lower than what currently exists,” and there is only leftover cash because of cuts. For instance, the federal government provides individual benefits to seniors and low income individuals. There are other supports such as the Canada Child Benefit and grants to individuals and businesses.
例如，联邦政府为老年人和低收入群体提供个人福利。此外还有加拿大儿童福利金以及对个人和企业的补助金等其他支持。
For instance, the federal government provides individual benefits to seniors and low income individuals. There are other supports such as the Canada Child Benefit and grants to individuals and businesses.
ATC提议通过将其纳入新的阿尔伯塔养老金计划来支付现有的联邦老年保障金，而不是像联邦政府目前那样将其纳入年度预算。
The ATC proposes paying for the existing federal Old Age Security program by including it in a new Alberta Pension Plan, as opposed to covering the cost in an annual budget, as the federal government currently does.
“这是一种不可持续的策略，”汤姆说，除非提高税收或工人的缴费率。
“That's an unsustainable strategy,” said Tombe, unless taxes or worker contribution rates were increased.
“这些都是大额支出项目，很大程度上解释了他们的数字与我们公共政策学院得出的数据之间的差距，”他说。
“Those are big ticket items and largely accounts for the gap between their numbers and what we had from the School of Public Policy,” he said. With files from Joel Dryden