今年举行的为期两天的亚洲私募股权与风险投资峰会传递出一个明确信息:资深资产配置人士和基金经理认为,宏观叙事或许可以解释机会,但真正让人坚定信念的是证据。
The two-day Asia PE-VC Summit this year produced a clear message from senior asset allocators and fund managers: The macro story may explain the opportunity, but it is the evidence that earns conviction.
要让投资者接受亚洲市场,历来并不容易。GDP强劲增长并未真正带来资产配置方所预期的回报。原因并不陌生:并购市场深度不足、IPO市场表现分化,以及仍需推进制度化建设的家族企业,等等。
Asia has always been a tough sell as strong GDP growth has not really translated into the kind of returns allocators expected. The reasons are familiar: Shallow M&A markets, an uneven IPO market, and family-owned businesses that still need institutionalising, to name a few.
尽管面临诸多挑战,HarbourVest的Hemal Mirani表示:“世界这一地区有些已经完成的项目确实非常出色。看看这些项目在单笔交易层面取得的回报。风险已经承担,回报也已经实现。最大的问题在于,如何让这些表现更加稳定地体现出来。”整场峰会上的有限合伙人(LP)讨论,为观察当下如何评估投资亚洲的逻辑,提供了一个有益视角。
Despite the challenges, Hemal Mirani of HarbourVest says, “There are deals that have gotten done in this part of the world that are absolutely fabulous. Look at the returns that have been earned at the deal level. Risk has been taken, and returns have been generated. The big question is, how does that come through on a slightly more consistent basis.” Across the summit, LP discussions offered a useful vantage point into how the case for Asia is being assessed today.
有限合伙人想看到什么:对有限合伙人而言,关注点正日益转向管理人能够证明什么,其筛选标准主要围绕机构化运作基础、本地团队、退出案例以及在压力时期的表现。
Despite the challenges, Hemal Mirani of HarbourVest says, “There are deals that have gotten done in this part of the world that are absolutely fabulous. Look at the returns that have been earned at the deal level. Risk has been taken, and returns have been generated. The big question is, how does that come through on a slightly more consistent basis.” Across the summit, LP discussions offered a useful vantage point into how the case for Asia is being assessed today.
需要明确的是,这些都不是增长指标。正如Affirma Capital的Nainesh Jaisingh所说:“从新冠疫情、地缘政治到人工智能,你从未见过如此集中的结构性巨变。亚洲私募股权行业正经历达尔文式的优胜劣汰,比的是谁能适应得最好。”因此,面对这一深刻变革,市场寻找的是能够证明自身价值创造能力不仅限于经济周期所能带来价值的管理人。
What LPs want to see For LPs, the spotlight is increasingly on what managers can demonstrate with the selection criteria circling institutional infrastructure, local teams, realisations and performance through periods of stress. To be clear, none of these are growth metrics. As Affirma Capital’s Nainesh Jaisingh puts it, “You haven’t seen this combination of tectonic changes, from COVID to geopolitics to AI. Asian PE is going through Darwinian moments. It is about who adapts the best.” This period of profound structural change therefore seeks managers who can demonstrate value creation beyond what the economic cycle delivers.
谈到更广泛的亚洲机会,Mirani认为,多元化策略旨在“打造一个汇集该地区最优选择的投资组合”。Hamilton Lane的Kerrine Koh则指出,行业正在转向规模更大的泛亚平台;但她同时强调,中端市场仍有单一国家基金的空间,尤其是在目前正受益于“中国+1”顺风效应的东南亚。
On the broader Asia opportunity, Mirani suggests the diversification approach to “create a portfolio that will give you the best of this region.” Hamilton Lane‘s Kerrine Koh pointed to the move towards larger pan-Asian platforms while maintaining that there is still room for single-country funds in the mid-market, particularly in Southeast Asia, which is currently enjoying the China+1 tailwind.
经济环境的变化也在影响一些机构投资者对其投资组合的策略。以日本为例,日本企业养老基金的首席投资官吉口义(Yoshi Kiguchi)表示,不断上升的通胀压力促使日本机构投资者不再仅仅追求资本的保值,而是开始增加对私人市场的投资,以推动企业的长期增长。目前,私人市场投资已经占企业养老基金总资产规模的约20%,并且这一比例预计还会继续上升,尤其是在美国、印度和东南亚地区。
The shift in the economic environment is also influencing how some of the institutional investors think about their portfolios. Take Japan, for instance. Yoshi Kiguchi, CIO at the Pension Fund of Japanese Corporations, said rising inflation is pushing Japanese institutional investors beyond nominal capital preservation towards increasing allocations to private markets to drive long-term growth.
那么,养老基金是如何评估基金经理的表现的呢?吉口义指出,基金优先选择那些表现出稳定性的投资团队,并且具有良好现金回报记录的基金经理。有趣的是,这种评估标准同样适用于新兴的基金经理。
Alternatives already comprise about 20% of corporate pension AUM and are set to grow, particularly in the US, India and Southeast Asia.
尽管机构投资者有足够的资金可供投资,但他们仍然希望看到基金经理具备明显的竞争优势(如明确的市场定位)、强大的团队实力以及丰富的投资经验。对于那些成立时间较短的基金来说,由于缺乏投资业绩记录和较低的资本回报率(DPI),这些优势就更难以证明。不过,针对新兴基金经理的市场依然存在。Hunter Point Capital的彼得·罗森布鲁姆(Peter Rosenbloom)指出,家族办公室对专业基金经理的兴趣正在不断增加;虽然新成立的基金可能具有较高的中位数回报,但这些数据可能会受到基金成立时间或选择标准的影响,同时较长的 fundraising(融资)周期也仍然是这些基金面临的挑战。
And how does a pension fund evaluate managers? Kiguchi says the fund prioritises a GP team that shows stability and a clear history of cash returns. Interestingly, the same scrutiny applies to emerging managers. While institutional capital is available, investors want to see a clear edge, sufficient addressable market, differentiation, strong GP alignment, team quality and proven deal-level experience. For newer funds, limited realised track records and DPI can make that harder to demonstrate. Yet the market for emerging managers has not disappeared. Peter Rosenbloom at Hunter Point Capital pointed to growing sophistication among family offices and continued interest in specialised managers. First-time funds may show higher median returns, but those figures can be influenced by vintage and selection biases, while limited realised DPI and longer fundraising cycles remain challenges.
这种对投资结果的重视同样体现在退出策略上。Future Standard的迈克尔·刘(Michael Liu)认为,中国的经济复苏将在一定程度上依赖于更健全的资本市场和更活跃的退出机制;而那些提供持续投资支持的机构则为经验丰富的基金经理提供了另一种实现投资回报的途径。
The same emphasis on outcomes extends to the broader question of exits. Michael Liu of Future Standard said China’s revival will depend partly on stronger capital markets and exit activity, while continuation vehicles are offering established GPs another route to realisations.
然而,对于有限合伙制(LP)投资者来说,投资回报率并不是唯一的评估标准。MUFG Investor Services的菲·丁(Fi Dinh)强调,透明度以及基金经理在面对压力时的应对能力(尤其是在资金运作方面)也是重要的评估因素。
For LPs, however, realisations are not the only test. Fi Dinh of MUFG Investor Services highlighted transparency and how managers respond under stress, including around NAV financing.
LP(有限合伙人)与GP(普通合伙人)之间的关系也是这一变革趋势的一部分。Danantara Indonesia的Weihan Wong指出,共同投资与知识交流是合作伙伴关系中的关键要素。
The relationship between LPs and GPs is part of that changing landscape too. Danantara Indonesia’s Weihan Wong pointed to co-investments and knowledge transfer as key elements in a partnership.
在这种背景下,亚洲地区将继续面临资本分配的竞争。大量资金仍流向美国,尤其是那些拥有良好业绩记录、能够持续产生稳定回报的中端市场;这种情况短期内不太可能发生变化。
Amid this backdrop, Asia will continue to see a fight for capital allocations. A significant amount is still heading to the US, particularly the mid-market, where established track records of consistent returns remain attractive. That is unlikely to change overnight.
不过,在新加坡举行的讨论表明,亚洲的长期发展潜力依然存在。真正发生变化的,是评估这种潜力的标准本身。
But the conversations in Singapore suggest that Asia’s long-term potential remains intact. What is changing is the standard against which that potential is being assessed.
构建私人财富市场不仅仅依赖于产品本身;虽然私人市场正在向更广泛的投资者群体开放,但“获取投资机会”只是其中的一个方面。投资者需要清楚地了解自己所购买的产品、其运作机制,以及该产品在其投资组合中的作用。
But the conversations in Singapore suggest that Asia’s long-term potential remains intact. What is changing is the standard against which that potential is being assessed. Building private wealth market takes more than just products Private markets may be opening up to a broader wealth audience, but access is only one part of the proposition. Investors need to understand what they are buying, how the structure works and what role it is intended to play in a portfolio.
目前市场上产品并不缺乏,基金经理也可以提供多种不同的投资方案。关键在于找到适合当前市场环境的解释方式(即找到能够说服投资者的“故事”或宣传内容)。
Building private wealth market takes more than just products Private markets may be opening up to a broader wealth audience, but access is only one part of the proposition. Investors need to understand what they are buying, how the structure works and what role it is intended to play in a portfolio.
当投资者对私人资产的特性缺乏充分了解时,这种沟通工作会变得更加困难。问题不仅仅在于投资时向投资者解释产品的功能,还在于投资者对这些产品的期望——尤其是在市场波动较大的情况下。
There is no dearth of products and fund managers can curate different solutions. But the importance lies in finding the right narrative and relevance for the market environment.
此外,投资者对投资回报的预期也是需要重点关注的因素。投资者可能会将私人资产与公开市场上的证券进行比较,并期望因私人市场的低流动性而获得更高的回报。
That becomes harder when investors do not fully understand the characteristics of private assets. The issue is not simply explaining a product at the point of investment. It is also about what investors expect from it, particularly when markets become volatile.
对于GP来说,投资者教育的工作不仅需要银行的总部和尽职调查团队来完成;关系经理以及最终投资者也需要获得同样高质量的信息,包括关于私募股权基金或基础设施基金的投资组合及其运作策略的透明信息。
The education piece also extends to expectations of returns. Investors may compare private assets with individual public securities, while traditionally expecting a premium for the illiquidity associated with private markets.
这引发了关于私募股权基金管理团队规模(即“bench strength”)的讨论。特别是对于那些专注于高端私人资产管理的机构来说,他们在全球范围内需要多少人才来帮助开拓财富管理市场呢?
For GPs, the education piece extends beyond the bank’s home office and diligence team. Relationship managers and end clients also need a similar level of quality information, including transparency on the portfolio and the underlying strategies within a private equity or infrastructure fund.
在财富管理领域取得成功,不仅仅意味着管理资产规模的扩大(AUM的增长),更重要的是产品的广泛采用、与银行的深入合作关系,以及能够随着时间的推移在多种产品之间持续建立这些合作关系。
That puts the question of bench strength into the discussion. For boutique private asset managers, in particular, there is a question of how many people they have around the world to help educate the wealth market.
随着私募市场不断拓展到更广泛的财富管理领域,产品本身只是整个服务方案的一部分。对于基金管理机构而言,真正的机会在于建立这些合作关系、相应的基础设施以及提供必要的支持。
Success in the wealth market is not simply about growing AUM but about broader adoption, deeper relationships with banks and the ability to build those relationships across multiple products over time.
顶级私募股权基金的募资情况:
As private markets reach further into wealth, the product is only one part of the proposition. For managers, the broader opportunity lies in building the relationships, infrastructure and support around it.
泰国的私募股权公司Lakeshore Capital已成功募集到第三支旗舰基金,总规模为3.05亿美元,吸引了包括资产管理机构、主权财富基金、保险公司、基金中的基金(fund-of-funds)和家族办公室在内的新老投资者。
As private markets reach further into wealth, the product is only one part of the proposition. For managers, the broader opportunity lies in building the relationships, infrastructure and support around it.
专注于印度市场的中型私募股权公司Carpediem Capital即将推出第三支基金,计划从国内外有限合伙人(LPs)处募集约2.1亿美元的资金。
Top PE Developments Fundraising Thai private equity shop Lakeshore Capital has closed its third flagship fund at its $305 million hard cap, attracting a mix of new and existing investors, including asset managers, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, funds-of-funds and family offices.
总部位于吉隆坡和东京的Bee Alternatives公司也成功募集到了第七支二级投资基金,规模超过1.5亿美元,符合其1.5亿至2亿美元的目标范围。
Carpediem Capital, an India-focused mid-market PE firm, is set to launch its third fund targeting about $210 million from a mix of domestic and international LPs.
IPO与退出策略: Warburg Pincus亚洲私募股权部门负责人Vishal Mahadevia表示,菲律宾数字钱包公司GCash的上市计划可能会成为东南亚私募股权退出策略的一个分水岭时刻。
Kuala Lumpur- and Tokyo-based Bee Alternatives has closed its seventh secondaries fund at over $150 million, within its target range of $150-$200 million. IPO and exits The planned initial public offering of Philippine digital wallet GCash could become a watershed moment for private equity exits in Southeast Asia, said Vishal Mahadevia, head of Asia Private Equity and global co-head of Financial Services at Warburg Pincus.
据彭博新闻报道,韩国投资公司(Korea Investment Corp.)正考虑出售价值超过10亿美元的私募股权资产,PJT Partners正在为这笔潜在交易提供咨询服务。与此同时,全球范围内的二级市场交易(即投资者购买已上市企业的私募股权份额的交易)正呈现出加速发展的趋势。
Korea Investment Corp. is looking to sell private equity stakes worth more than $1 billion, with PJT Partners advising on the potential transaction, Bloomberg News reported. The potential sale comes as secondary transactions gain momentum globally.