预测市场正聚焦于极端天气和气候危机。但这也引发了一些问题：人们究竟在押注什么？
Prediction markets are focusing on extreme weather and the climate crisis. But it’s led to questions about what exactly people are betting on
你所在的城市附近明天会有多热？地球上的冰层会以多快的速度融化，珊瑚会以多快的速度消亡？今年会发生多少起规模巨大、代价高昂的气候灾难？如果你也想下注，现在就可以在线下注，预测天气以及更广泛、更长期的气候危机将如何发展。
How hot will it get in your nearest city tomorrow? How quickly will the planet’s ice melt and its corals die off? How many huge, costly climate disasters will hit this year? If you’re inclined to do so, you can now place online bets on how the weather and the broader, longer-term climate crisis will play out.
在美国，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等大型在线预测市场正考虑在体育赛事和加密货币之外开拓新的增长领域：气候本身。Kalshi 最近报告称，过去一年其天气和气候下注额增长了500%，使相关市场规模达到11亿美元。目前，该平台正与拥有天气频道的 Weather Company 合作，以提升其在这一新领域的公信力。规模巨大的厄尔尼诺现象预计到2月将造成超过45万人死亡科学家警告：生命繁荣所必需的“行星边界”已被大规模突破英国民众认识到气候危机带来的威胁。今天，我正赋予他们应对危机的能力｜安迪·伯恩汉姆
In the US, big online prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are considering a new area of growth beyond mere sport and crypto: the climate itself. Kalshi recently reported 500% growth in weather and climate wagers over the past year, taking the market to a $1.1bn, and is now partnering with the Weather Company, which owns the Weather Channel, to boost its credibility in this new arena. Huge El Niño projected to cause more than 450,000 deaths by February‘Planetary boundaries’ necessary for flourishing of life have been massively breached, scientists warn British people understand the climate crisis threat. Today I’m empowering them to tackle it | Andy Burnham