美国一位高级军事指挥官近日驳回了一名记者关于担心美国入侵加拿大的假设性提问，称其“绝对且彻头彻尾地荒谬”。
A senior U.S. military commander recently dismissed a journalist's hypothetical question about a feared American invasion of Canada as "absolutely and utterly preposterous."
美国印太司令部司令塞缪尔·帕帕罗海军上将补充道：“能否也请您问问我，针对火星人的进攻计划是什么？”然而，对于总理马克·卡尼及其高级国防官员来说，这似乎并非如此异想天开，他们已翻出各种长期确立的——有些甚至已有数十年历史——应急计划和最坏情况设想。
The head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo, added: "Would you ask me please, also, what my attack plans are for the Martians?" It seems, however, it hasn't been such a far-fetched notion for Prime Minister Mark Carney, nor his senior defence officials who have dusted off various long-established — in some cases decades old — contingency plans and worst case scenarios.
据《纽约时报》周三报道，卡尼在接受采访时表示，他已为特朗普政府可能下令对加拿大采取军事行动这一“极端尾部风险”做好了准备。这意味着发生这种情况的概率极低，但风险并非为零。
In an interview with the New York Times on Wednesday, Carney said he had prepared for the "extreme tail risk" that the Trump administration might order military action against Canada. That's his way of saying there's a really, really low probability of this happening, but the risk is not zero.
《时报》报道称，在被追问是否认真对待美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将加拿大变为“第51个州”的威胁后，这位总理“暗示他已仔细研究过美国主导军事入侵的可能性”，但拒绝详细透露其中涉及的内容。
The Times reported that the prime minister, after being pressed on whether he took U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to make Canada the 51st state seriously, "suggested that he had carefully examined the possibility of a U.S.-led military invasion," but declined to discuss in detail what that involved.
国防部长大卫·麦金蒂周四表示：“世界上所有军队都会花时间分析风险情景。加拿大民众应按总理所述理解：这是一种尾部风险。”麦金蒂同样拒绝讨论应急规划的细节。
"All militaries in the world spend time analyzing risk scenarios," Defence Minister David McGuinty said Thursday. "Canadians should take it as described to the prime minister: a tail risk." McGuinty also refused to discuss details of the contingency planning.
装满应急计划的保险库 虽然“美国军事行动”一词在许多人脑海中唤起的默认画面是重型坦克、战机和无人机轰鸣着越过加拿大边境，但绝大多数专家一致认为，鉴于加拿大地域辽阔且难以全面控制，这种情景不太可能发生。
Vault full of contingency plans While the default vision of the phrase "American military action" for many is one of heavily armoured tanks, jets and drones roaring across the Canadian border, an overwhelming number of experts agree such a scenario is unlikely given the vastness of Canada and the difficulty in securing the whole country.
普遍共识是，在常规冲突中，加拿大军队将迅速溃败，抵抗将转为游击战形式。
It's generally agreed that in a conventional conflict the Canadian military would be quickly overwhelmed and resistance would take the form of a guerilla campaign.
然而，还有许多其他不同的情景。这些情景从前委内瑞拉独裁者尼古拉斯·马杜罗被美军特种部队抓捕时发生的那种迅速政权更迭，到在伊朗上空进行的有限空中行动，不一而足。
There are, however, a number of other different scenarios. They range from the kind of rapid regime change that took place when former Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. commandos, to the limited air campaign that's been fought over Iran.
至于应急计划，加拿大国防部和世界各国军队一样，储存了大量此类计划——其中一些可以追溯到几十年前。
As for contingency plans, the Department of National Defence, like militaries across the world, has a vault full of them — some dating back decades.
退役中将安德鲁·莱斯利曾领导国防部负责撰写和更新这些计划的部门。
Retired Lt.-Gen. Andrew Leslie headed the section at the defence department that writes and updates the plans.
他表示，这些计划会根据世界形势的变化进行修订，通常是在加拿大有利益关系的国家出现新领导人上台时。
He said they are amended as world circumstances dictate, often when a new leader takes power in a country where Canada has an interest.
莱斯利在接受加拿大广播公司（CBC）新闻采访时说：“你要对可能发生的事情和不太可能发生的事情做出判断。”“你会咨询其他部门和专家，然后再把计划存起来。”
"You make judgment calls on what is likely to happen, what is unlikely to happen," Leslie said in an interview with CBC News.
鉴于特朗普的威胁而“高度关注” 莱斯利表示，这些规划在特朗普2024年连任后本应已更新，并会被定期拿出来研究，特别是考虑到特朗普政府1月威胁要武力夺取格陵兰岛。
"You consult with other departments, with other experts, and then you put it away again." 'Heightened focus' in light of Trump's threats The planning, Leslie said, would have been updated after Trump's re-election in 2024 and would have been pulled out regularly, especially in light of the Trump administration's threats in January to seize Greenland by force.
莱斯利说：“在白宫对加拿大发出威胁的背景下……这很可能导致了高度关注。”他提到了关于“第51个州”的言论以及将加拿大标注为美国一部分的地图。
"In the context of the threats that the White House has issued against Canada … those would have probably resulted in a heightened focus," Leslie said, citing talk of a 51st state and maps showing Canada as part of the U.S.
一年多前，特朗普排除了对加拿大采取军事行动的可能性，表示将改用经济胁迫手段迫使该国加入联邦。鉴于所有这些言论，卡尼呼吁修订国防计划本属自然，莱斯利说。
Over a year ago, Trump ruled out military action against Canada, saying he'd use economic coercion instead to force the country into the Union. Given everything that's been said, it would have been natural for Carney to call for defence plans to be revised, Leslie said.
曾担任加拿大陆军指挥官的莱斯利说：“很多人有时会忘记，国家层面政治领袖的首要职责是加拿大人的安全与安保。”
"What a lot of people sometimes forget is that a political leader's first remit at the national level is the safety, security of Canadians," said Leslie, who also served as commander of the Canadian Army.
因此，他的职责是确保已采取所有应有的尽职调查和审慎措施，以了解情况与旧计划的编写或更新方式相比可能发生了哪些变化。而参谋长[珍妮·卡里尼将军]的职责则是据此向他们提供建议，这一点我绝对确信她已经做到了。 特朗普威胁的影响在美国被忽视美国采取军事行动的概念是一个敏感议题，引发许多人的强烈关注。
"So it would be his duty to ensure that all due diligence and prudent steps have been taken to see what might have changed from the way that the old plans were written or updated. And it would be the duty of the Chief of the Defence Staff [Gen. Jennie Carignan] to advise them accordingly, which I'm absolutely sure she did." Impact of Trump's threats go unnoticed in U.S. The notion of U.S. military action is a hot-button issue for many.
新民主党议员戈德·约翰斯周四进入下议院时表示：“我认为每个加拿大人都为此担忧。”约翰斯补充说，当特朗普称加拿大为“第51个州”或称卡尼为“加拿大总督”时，加拿大人都在关注。
"I think every Canadian worries about it," New Democrat MP Gord Johns said going into the House of Commons on Thursday. Canadians are paying attention when Trump calls the country the 51st state or refers to Carney as the governor of Canada, Johns added.
然而，一些习惯了特朗普的威胁、嘲讽和挑衅的美国人，反应却越来越困惑。
There is, however, an increasingly puzzled reaction among some Americans who have grown accustomed to Trump's threats, taunts and trolling.
康涅狄格州纽黑文大学副教授、前美国陆军战争学院教官马修·施密特表示，许多美国人（包括他自己）都未意识到特朗普的言论如何影响其他国家的人。
Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor at the University of New Haven in Connecticut and a former instructor at the U.S. Army War College, said many Americans, including himself, are unaware of how Trump's words affect people in other nations.
“我认为我没有切身感受到加拿大人对美国的感受，”施密特说。“我们真的没有意识到总统的言论对其他地方产生了什么影响。”他否认了美国军队会对加拿大采取行动的说法，但表示卡尼采取了领导人应有的审慎、负责任的做法，并评估了风险。
"I don't think I have a visceral sense of what Canadians are feeling about the United States," Schmidt said. "We really don't have a sense of the impact of what the president is saying has on other places." He dismissed the notion of the U.S. military taking action against Canada, but said Carney has taken the prudent, responsible course of a leader and measured the risk.
施密特表示，他也想知道总理的表态是否旨在向不仅加拿大公众，还有美国人和其他人发出更多的政治信号。
Schmidt said he also wonders whether the prime minister's reference was intended as more of a political signal to not only the Canadian public, but Americans and others.
“当马克·卡尼站起来说出那番话时，这凸显了美国总统言论的荒谬性。对吧？这是一种强调这种荒谬性的方式，”施密特说。
"When Mark Carney stands up and says that, it just highlights the absurdity of what the American president said. Right? It's a way to emphasize that absurdity," Schmidt said.