在深刻的地缘政治和经济变革时代，两大同步趋势定义了全球格局。首先，尽管美国在人工智能热潮中吸引资金流入其股票市场，但央行和资产管理机构正在减持美国债券和美元，以对冲历史性高位的财政赤字和债务水平。
In an era of profound geopolitical and economic shifts, two concurrent trends define the global landscape. First, while the United States sees capital flowing into its equity markets amid the AI boom, central banks and asset managers are diversifying away from US bonds and US dollars to hedge against historically high fiscal deficits and debt levels.
随着美国推动制造业回流、欧洲捍卫本国产业，东亚——特别是“东盟+3”正在深化供应链一体化。如今，东南亚国家联盟及其伙伴中国、日本和韩国共同拥有全球最大的市场。
As the US pushes for onshoring manufacturing and Europe defends its industries, East Asia – particularly Asean+3 – is deepening supply chain integration. Today, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its partners China, Japan and South Korea together boast the world’s largest market.
其次，伴随中国创纪录的出口表现，中国国有企业和民营企业正向金砖国家输出资本、投资和人才，东盟成为主要目的地。这一转变对商业模式、东道国贸易和就业产生深远影响，并给当地企业带来激烈竞争。
Second, alongside China’s record export performance, Chinese state-owned and private enterprises are exporting capital, investments and talent to Brics nations, with Asean emerging as a primary destination. This shift carries enormous implications for business models, host-country trade and employment, and brings intense competition to domestic businesses.
正如我本周在CGS中国-东盟商业领袖峰会演讲中所述，在当今大国博弈中，东盟已崛起为一个极具潜力和战略意义的地区。拥有近7亿人口、合计国内生产总值约4万亿美元，东盟跻身全球增速最快的地区之列，持续保持4%以上的增长率。
As I mentioned in a speech to the CGS China-Asean Business Leaders’ Summit this week, in today’s big-power contest, Asean has emerged as a region of immense potential and strategic significance. With a population approaching 700 million and a combined gross domestic product of around US$4 trillion, it ranks among the world’s fastest-growing regions, with sustained growth rates of over 4 per cent.
北亚与东南亚高度互补。北方面临人口老龄化和资源短缺，特别是石油、天然气和关键矿产，而东盟拥有丰富的能源和农产品产出。此外，通过马六甲海峡，东盟凭借长期的文化、宗教和语言联系，将北亚与南亚、中东和欧洲连接起来。
North and Southeast Asia are highly complementary. The North has ageing populations and resource scarcity, particularly in oil, gas and critical minerals, while Asean possesses abundant energy and agricultural output. Furthermore, through the Strait of Malacca, Asean links North Asia with South Asia, the Middle East and Europe via long-standing cultural, religious and linguistic ties.
得益于《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）的实施以及中国—东盟自由贸易协定的多次升级，东盟已成为中国最大的贸易伙伴。2025年双边贸易额突破1万亿美元，并保持强劲增长势头。
Bolstered by the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and successive enhancements to the China-Asean free trade agreement, Asean is China’s largest trading partner. Bilateral trade exceeded US$1 trillion in 2025 and maintains robust growth trajectories.
投资流向映射出这种日益深化的贸易融合。东盟是中国投资的主要目的地，主要集中在制造业，批发零售业以及矿产资源开发领域的投资版图也在不断扩大。
Investment flows mirror this deepening trade integration. Asean is a leading destination for Chinese investments, mainly in manufacturing, with expanding footprints in wholesale and retail trade as well as mineral and resource development.
有几大因素推动中国企业加速向东盟和金砖国家“走出去”。首先，地缘政治紧张局势和美国关税升级迫使中国制造商将生产设施迁往东南亚。
Several factors drive Chinese enterprises’ accelerated “going out” strategy towards Asean and Brics. First, geopolitical tensions and US tariff escalation have forced Chinese manufacturers to relocate their facilities to Southeast Asia.
其次，地理邻近性、现有的自由贸易架构、海运和铁路互联互通的改善，以及庞大的华人侨民网络，降低了交易和文化摩擦。较低的劳动力成本和专门建设的工业园区（如新加坡、泰国、马来西亚和印度尼西亚的园区）吸引了中国企业。
Second, geographic proximity, existing free-trade architecture, improved maritime and rail connectivity, and extensive Chinese diaspora networks reduce transaction and cultural friction. Chinese firms are attracted by lower labour costs and purpose-built industrial zones, such as those in Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
第三，东盟丰富的能源、原材料和不断增长的消费市场，创造了供应链一体化和新市场机遇。
Third, Asean’s abundant energy, raw materials and growing consumer markets create integrated supply-chain and new-market opportunities.
第四，据传闻，中国民营企业倾向于在新加坡设立家族办公室，而交易和首次公开募股（IPO）则留在香港。在两大金融中心，服务内地客户的中国银行和证券机构的影响力也在日益增强。
Fourth, anecdotally, Chinese private enterprises are inclined to put family offices in Singapore, while deals and initial public offerings remain in Hong Kong. There is also a growing presence of Chinese banks and securities houses in both financial centres to serve their mainland Chinese clients.
中国企业“走出去”的这一趋势并非一帆风顺。东道国正日益制定监管和法律框架，以保护本国产业、就业和比较优势。例如，印度尼西亚的政策强制要求镍生产进行国内增值加工，而非出口原材料；泰国则实施分级的外资股权持有限制。
This trend of Chinese firms “going out” is not without speed bumps. Host nations are increasingly formulating regulatory and legal frameworks to safeguard domestic industries, employment and comparative advantages. Examples include Indonesia’s policies mandating domestic value-added processing in nickel production, rather than raw material export, and Thailand’s tiered foreign equity ownership restrictions.
东道国担心中国企业将中国的“内卷”（激烈的内部竞争）带入其国内。中国企业必须学会适应当地的文化、工作和监管惯例。在一个国家行之有效的方法，在另一个国家未必奏效。
Host countries are worried that Chinese companies are importing Chinese “involution” (intense internal competition) into their countries. Chinese firms have to learn to adapt to local cultural, work and regulatory practices. What works in one country may not work in another.
在许多情况下，中国管理层才刚刚开始意识到，“走出去”战略需要对多样化的当地情况有更深入的了解；与此同时，东道国政府和企业也需要向中国企业学习，后者凭借工程技能和日益娴熟的营销手段（尤其是在社交媒体和数字渠道方面）开展运营。
In many cases, Chinese management is only just beginning to realise that a going-out strategy requires a much better understanding of diverse local conditions, even as host governments and businesses need to learn from Chinese businesses that operate with engineering skills and increasingly skilful marketing, especially in social media and digital channels.
为参与竞争，东盟企业必须在人工智能、机器人技术、工程技能和品牌建设方面提升水平，因为它们不再能依赖廉价劳动力和低端产品来轻松进入市场。
To compete, Asean businesses must raise their game in AI, robotics, engineering skills and branding, because they can no longer rely on cheap labour and low-end products that permit easy market entry.
要实现双赢局面，各方都必须学会如何协作，共建一个更高效、更具韧性的生态系统。竞争与合作并存的伙伴关系将促进区域一体化；这可以成为中国企业走向全球的开路先锋。
For a win-win situation to occur, all sides will have to learn how to work together to build a more efficient and resilient ecosystem. Competitive and cooperative partnerships will foster regional integration; they can be the pathfinder for Chinese enterprises going global. By Andrew Sheng