在路易斯安那州和德克萨斯州巨大的地下盐穴深处,美国政府储存了数亿桶原油。
Deep in the giant underground salt caverns of Louisiana and Texas, the U.S. government stores hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil.
战略石油储备是一个特殊的政府石油储备,最终会被炼制成人们依赖的产品,如汽油和柴油。但现在储备量偏低,威胁到政府缓解高油价为数不多的手段之一。
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a special government oil stockpile that eventually gets refined into the things people rely on, like gasoline and diesel. But now the reserve is low, threatening one of the few government levers to ease high gasoline prices.
自2月下旬美国和以色列与伊朗开战导致石油运输受阻以来,特朗普政府已多次动用储备,试图增加国家燃料供应。
Since the U.S. and Israel went to war with Iran in late February causing an oil shipping logjam, the Trump administration has tapped into the stockpile multiple times in an effort to boost the country's fuel supplies.
汽油价格居高不下,柴油价格创历史新高,储备量在六个月内缩减了30%以上。虽然2月份储备量约为4.15亿桶,但现在不足2.85亿桶——低于20世纪80年代初以来的水平。
Gas prices are still high, diesel is at a record high, and the reserve has shrunk more than 30% in six months. While the reserve held around 415 million barrels of oil in February, it now holds less than 285 million barrels of oil — lower than it has been since the early 1980s.
布鲁金斯学会能源安全与气候倡议主任萨曼莎·格罗斯表示,这种快速抽取石油威胁到盐穴的结构。布鲁金斯学会是一个无党派政策智库。
These rapid drawdowns of oil threaten the salt caverns' structure, says Samantha Gross, director of the energy security and climate initiative at the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan policy think tank. As the reserves get lower and lower, the physical facilities can get degraded, Gross says: " You can damage them by pumping too much out of them." And there's an economic risk, too, as the war with Iran drags on, says Ben Cahill, who covers the global energy sector as a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a nonpartisan think tank. Before the war, global oil stockpiles were high and there was lots of oil on ships across the world's oceans. Now that oil has been mostly used up. Should the U.S. want to replenish its reserves, there's a lot less to go around, he says. Brent crude, the global benchmark, remains over $100 a barrel — 47% higher than when the war began.
格罗斯说:“随着储备量越来越低,物理设施可能会退化。抽取过多会损坏它们。”大西洋理事会非常驻高级研究员、负责全球能源领域的本·卡希尔表示,随着与伊朗的战争拖延,也存在经济风险。大西洋理事会是一个无党派智库。
These rapid drawdowns of oil threaten the salt caverns' structure, says Samantha Gross, director of the energy security and climate initiative at the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan policy think tank. As the reserves get lower and lower, the physical facilities can get degraded, Gross says: " You can damage them by pumping too much out of them." And there's an economic risk, too, as the war with Iran drags on, says Ben Cahill, who covers the global energy sector as a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a nonpartisan think tank. Before the war, global oil stockpiles were high and there was lots of oil on ships across the world's oceans. Now that oil has been mostly used up. Should the U.S. want to replenish its reserves, there's a lot less to go around, he says. Brent crude, the global benchmark, remains over $100 a barrel — 47% higher than when the war began.
他说,战前全球石油库存高企,世界各大洋船上装载了大量石油。现在这些石油大多已被消耗。如果美国想补充储备,可用的石油少得多。作为全球基准的布伦特原油仍维持在每桶100美元以上——比战争开始时高出47%。
These rapid drawdowns of oil threaten the salt caverns' structure, says Samantha Gross, director of the energy security and climate initiative at the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan policy think tank. As the reserves get lower and lower, the physical facilities can get degraded, Gross says: " You can damage them by pumping too much out of them." And there's an economic risk, too, as the war with Iran drags on, says Ben Cahill, who covers the global energy sector as a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a nonpartisan think tank. Before the war, global oil stockpiles were high and there was lots of oil on ships across the world's oceans. Now that oil has been mostly used up. Should the U.S. want to replenish its reserves, there's a lot less to go around, he says. Brent crude, the global benchmark, remains over $100 a barrel — 47% higher than when the war began.
卡希尔表示,特朗普政府现在利用战略石油储备降低汽油价格的处境更加不利。政府已经采取了一些其他措施来压低价格,包括暂时豁免《琼斯法案》,以便船只更容易将燃料运往美国港口,以及允许汽油生产商今年稍早开始销售“冬季配方汽油”——这种汽油生产成本更低。
The Trump administration is now in a weaker position to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to lower gasoline prices, Cahill says. It's already made a few other moves to drive down prices, including temporarily waiving the Jones Act to make it easier for ships to move fuel to U.S. ports, and allowing gasoline producers to start selling their "winter blends" — which are cheaper to make — a little earlier this year.
卡希尔说:“让我们度过过去六个月的许多因素,所有那些缓冲垫,实际上已经被消耗殆尽。”与委内瑞拉达成石油协议能否补充储备?
" A lot of the things that got us through the last six months, all those buffers, have really been worn away," Cahill says.
8月下旬,特朗普政府宣布与委内瑞拉的一家石油公司建立合作伙伴关系,允许联邦政府在17个委内瑞拉油田中持有多数股权。白宫在一份在线声明中表示,这项新协议将确保“稳定的低成本石油供应,有助于补充战略石油储备”。白宫宣布新协议几天后,美国能源部长克里斯·赖特澄清称,计划并非用大量委内瑞拉原油填满美国储备。相反,他在接受CNBC采访时建议,美国可能会用美国原油交换委内瑞拉原油。
Can an oil deal with Venezuela refill the reserves? In late August, the Trump administration announced it was entering a partnership with an oil company in Venezuela allowing the federal government a majority stake in 17 Venezuelan oil fields. In an online statement, the White House said the new deal would ensure "a stable supply of low-cost oil that can facilitate refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve." A few days after the White House announced the new deal, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright clarified that the plan was not to fill up the U.S. reserve with a bunch of Venezuelan crude oil. Rather, he suggested during an interview with CNBC, the U.S. might exchange U.S. barrels for Venezuelan ones.
这是因为并非所有原油都相同——有些在物理上较轻或较重,硫含量也各不相同。布鲁金斯学会的格罗斯表示,委内瑞拉的大部分石油属于重质高密度,且含硫量高。
In late August, the Trump administration announced it was entering a partnership with an oil company in Venezuela allowing the federal government a majority stake in 17 Venezuelan oil fields. In an online statement, the White House said the new deal would ensure "a stable supply of low-cost oil that can facilitate refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve." A few days after the White House announced the new deal, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright clarified that the plan was not to fill up the U.S. reserve with a bunch of Venezuelan crude oil. Rather, he suggested during an interview with CNBC, the U.S. might exchange U.S. barrels for Venezuelan ones.
她说:“这是一种沉重、粘稠、比糖浆还稠的东西,这不一定是你想储存在地下洞穴里的东西。”能源数据和研究提供商Enverus的经理卡尔·拉里表示,美国战略储备中的大部分石油较轻,硫含量为中等或较低。拉里说,轻质原油比重质原油更容易生产汽油和柴油。
That's because not all crude oil is the same — some is physically lighter or heavier and sulphur levels vary. Much of Venezuela's oil is heavy and dense, with a lot of sulphur, says Gross, of the Brookings Institution. "It's this heavy, goopy, thicker than molasses stuff," she says, "That's not necessarily what you want to put in these caverns." Much of the oil in the U.S. strategic reserves is lighter, with medium or light levels of sulphur, says Carl Larry, a manager at Enverus, an energy data and research provider. Lighter crude, Larry says, is easier for producing gasoline and diesel than heavier crude.
在CNBC节目中,赖特表示,作为协议的一部分,美国可以互换不同等级的原油:“我们将用一桶重质原油换取一桶美国的轻质或中质原油。”但即使美国想与委内瑞拉进行石油互换,大部分新增产量也不会很快实现。Rystad Energy研究公司地缘政治分析主管豪尔赫·莱昂表示,美国协议中讨论的委内瑞拉17个油田中,有些是新油田,需要从零开始开发;其他的则需要重新投资和再开发。
On CNBC, Wright said as part of the deal the U.S. could swap different grades of oil: "We'll swap you a barrel of heavy crude for a barrel of light or medium United States crude." But even if the U.S. wants to do a swap for Venezuelan oil, much of the new production won't happen anytime soon. Some of the 17 oil fields under discussion in the U.S. deal in Venezuela are new, and will need to be developed from scratch, says Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at research firm Rystad Energy. Others, he says, will need re-investment and redevelopment.
莱昂继续说道:“你实际上需要在钻孔、注入水泥和管道,并建设所有基础设施。”
On CNBC, Wright said as part of the deal the U.S. could swap different grades of oil: "We'll swap you a barrel of heavy crude for a barrel of light or medium United States crude." But even if the U.S. wants to do a swap for Venezuelan oil, much of the new production won't happen anytime soon. Some of the 17 oil fields under discussion in the U.S. deal in Venezuela are new, and will need to be developed from scratch, says Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at research firm Rystad Energy. Others, he says, will need re-investment and redevelopment.
莱斯大学贝克研究所拉丁美洲能源项目主任弗朗西斯科·莫纳尔迪表示,有些油田距离基础设施太远,石油要开始流出将需要十多年时间。“我不会说‘永远不会’,但要说10到20年,”他说道。
"You need to literally make the holes on the ground and insert cement and piping and build all the infrastructure," León continued. Some oil fields are so far away from infrastructure that they will take over a decade for oil to start flowing, says Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Program at the Baker Institute at Rice University. "I wouldn't say 'never,' but say 10 to 20 years," he says.
美国协议中讨论的大部分石油是所谓的委内瑞拉“法哈”原油;它像花生酱一样稠稠,开采难度很大。美国在委内瑞拉合作的石油公司是总部位于巴巴多斯的北美蓝色能源合作伙伴公司(NABEP)。
Much of the oil under discussion in the U.S. deal is the so-called Faja Venezuelan oil; it's thick like peanut butter and will be difficult to extract. The oil company that the U.S. is partnering with in Venezuela is Barbados-headquartered North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP).
该公司在给NPR的电子邮件中表示:“NABEP团队深谙委内瑞拉石油生产的独特挑战。我们的工程团队由拥有数十年经验的本地行业专业人士领导,包括在法哈地带的PetroCedeno和Junín Sur油田的经验。该团队的业绩有目共睹,在过去两年里,NABEP现有资产的产量已增加了十倍。” 向中国学习 最终,美国可以从中国那里学到一些关于如何管理战略储备的经验,哥伦比亚大学非常驻研究员、石油市场专家安托万·哈尔夫表示。
In an email to NPR, the company said, "The NABEP team is deeply familiar with the unique challenges of oil production in Venezuela. Our engineering team is led by local industry professionals with decades of experience, including in our PetroCedeno and Junín Sur fields in the Faja. This team's track-record is clear, having already increased production in NABEP's existing assets tenfold over the past two years." Lessons from China Ultimately, the U.S. can learn something about how to handle their strategic reserves from China, says Antoine Halff, non-resident fellow at Columbia University and an expert on oil markets.
中国拥有世界上最大的石油储备,哈尔夫表示,自2月伊朗战争爆发以来,中国已动用其储备。但由于中国不断壮大的电动汽车、卡车和电动滑板车车队,中国动用储备的幅度有所减小。根据国际能源署的数据,电动交通工具已在中国每天替代了至少150万桶石油的需求。
China, which has the largest oil stockpiles in the world, has dipped into its reserves since the Iran war began in February, Halff says. But China is drawing from it less because of the nation's growing fleet of electric cars, trucks and scooters. Electric transport is already displacing demand for at least 1.5 million barrels of oil a day in China, according to the International Energy Agency.
“为了应对市场中断风险,中国表明采取多管齐下的方法是值得的,”哈尔夫在一份报告中表示。
"To manage market disruption risks, China shows it pays to have a multi-pronged approach," Halff says in an Meanwhile, the Trump administration has reversed federal policies that promoted or encouraged electric vehicles; for example, last year it scrapped a federal tax credit worth up to $7,500 for buying or leasing a new EV.
与此同时,特朗普政府已逆转了推广或鼓励电动汽车的联邦政策;例如,去年它取消了购买或租赁新电动汽车高达7500美元的联邦税收抵免。
"To manage market disruption risks, China shows it pays to have a multi-pronged approach," Halff says in an Meanwhile, the Trump administration has reversed federal policies that promoted or encouraged electric vehicles; for example, last year it scrapped a federal tax credit worth up to $7,500 for buying or leasing a new EV.
归根结底,一些能源专家表示,健康储备的解决方案可能不仅在于快速补充供应的能力,还可能在于压缩需求。
Ultimately, some energy experts say the solution to a healthy reserve might not only be the ability to quickly replenish supply — it might also be shrinking demand.