最新民意调查显示，艾伯塔省省长丹妮尔·史密斯（Danielle Smith）的个人形象及其所在政党在该省的支持率均出现下滑，目前联合保守党（UCP）与反对党新民主党（NDP）的支持率基本持平。
New polling suggests both impressions of Premier Danielle Smith personally and support for her party are slipping in Alberta, with the UCP now essentially neck-and-neck with the opposition NDP.
根据珍妮特·布朗民意调查公司（Janet Brown Opinion Research）为CBC新闻进行的民调显示，如果今天举行省选，41%的受访者将投票给联合保守党，同时41%的人将投票给新民主党。
The Janet Brown Opinion Research Poll for CBC News suggests 41 per cent of respondents would vote for the UCP if an election were held today, while 41 per cent would vote for the NDP. In a similar poll conducted this spring, pollster Janet Brown said Smith’s government was enjoying the longest honeymoon period since the Ralph Klein-era. But now?
民调专家珍妮特·布朗表示，在今年春天进行的类似民调中，史密斯政府曾享有自拉尔夫·克莱恩（Ralph Klein）时代以来最长的政治蜜月期。但现在呢？
“I think the UCP is having a struggle navigating this difficult situation that we're in right now,” said Brown. “Having a controversial referendum, the premier taking one position on the referendum [and] also trying to advocate for the nine other questions.” Brown says it appears the party is shedding support on both sides of the independence debate: from separatists who wish Smith had taken a stance of support, and federalists frustrated by the question in the first place.
“我认为联合保守党在应对我们目前身处的困境时举步维艰，”布朗说，“由于举行了一场备受争议的全民公投，省长在公投中采取了一种立场，同时又试图为其他九个问题进行辩护。”布朗表示，该党在独立辩论的两个阵营中似乎都在流失支持：一方面是希望史密斯采取支持立场的独立派，另一方面是对最初提出该问题感到沮丧的联邦主义者。
“I think the UCP is having a struggle navigating this difficult situation that we're in right now,” said Brown. “Having a controversial referendum, the premier taking one position on the referendum [and] also trying to advocate for the nine other questions.” Brown says it appears the party is shedding support on both sides of the independence debate: from separatists who wish Smith had taken a stance of support, and federalists frustrated by the question in the first place. “She’s trying to walk the middle of the road, between the moderate, business conservatives and the far-right populist base that’s still angry over COVID restrictions,” said John Santos, data scientist with Janet Brown Opinion Research.
“她正试图在温和派、商业保守党人与对新冠疫情限制措施依然愤怒的极右翼民粹主义基本盘之间走中间路线，”珍妮特·布朗民意调查公司的数据科学家约翰·桑托斯（John Santos）说。
“And she’s getting hit by traffic on both sides of the road.” Exclusive With time running out, new poll suggests Alberta separatism support is slipping The random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted between Sept. 8 and Sept. 21, with a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
“结果就是她遭到了道路两侧车流的夹击。”独家报道 随着时间所剩无几，新民意调查显示艾伯塔省的分离主义支持率正在下滑 这项针对1,200名艾伯塔省居民的随机调查于9月8日至9月21日期间进行，在20次置信区间中有19次的误差范围为+/-2.8个百分点。
Breaking down the numbers The poll suggests the UCP has dropped eight points since April, while the NDP has seen its share of voter intention rise five points over that same time, putting the two parties at a tie.
数据细分 该民调显示，自4月份以来，联合保守党支持率下降了8个百分点，而新民主党同期的选民意向份额上升了5个百分点，这使得两党处于平局。
“Obviously the NDP would take a lot of pleasure in seeing these numbers,” said Lisa Young, political science professor at the University of Calgary. “It suggests that they're on a trajectory that might make them competitive in the election.” There’s also an increase in the number of respondents who say they would vote for another party, up six points since April, and the number of political “orphans” in the province: those who wouldn’t vote UCP or NDP, but also could not name which party they’d support instead.
“显然，新民主党看到这些数字会感到非常欣慰，”卡尔加里大学政治学教授丽莎·杨表示。“这表明他们正处于一条可能使他们在大选中具备竞争力的轨道上。”此外，表示将投票给其他政党的受访者比例也有所上升，较4月份上升了六个百分点；该省的政治“孤儿”数量也在增加：这些人既不投统一保守党也不投新民主党，却也说不出会支持哪个替代政党。
“Obviously the NDP would take a lot of pleasure in seeing these numbers,” said Lisa Young, political science professor at the University of Calgary. “It suggests that they're on a trajectory that might make them competitive in the election.” There’s also an increase in the number of respondents who say they would vote for another party, up six points since April, and the number of political “orphans” in the province: those who wouldn’t vote UCP or NDP, but also could not name which party they’d support instead. Regionally since the April poll, the UCP saw a drop of 14 points in areas outside Calgary and Edmonton, and a drop of 10 points in Calgary.
按地区划分，自4月民调以来，统一保守党在卡尔加里和埃德蒙顿以外地区的支持率下降了14个百分点，在卡尔加里下降了10个百分点。
“That would have surprised me, were it not for the Calgary-Shaw byelection,” said Brown. The NDP pulled out a victory in that byelection, claiming what had been a UCP riding.
布朗表示：“如果不是卡尔加里-肖补选的结果，这一结果会让我感到惊讶。”新民主党在该补选中获胜，夺取了原本属于统一保守党的选区席位。
Brown says the drop in UCP voter intention in Calgary is likely among those supporting the remain side, while rurally it reflects a drop in voter support from those who would vote to separate.
布朗认为，卡尔加里地区统一保守党投票意向的下降，很可能来自支持留联邦一方的选民；而在农村地区，则反映了支持分离的选民支持度下降。杨表示，这些数字意味着卡尔加里应成为未来几个月的关键战场。
Young says the numbers mean Calgary should be a key battleground in coming months. “But we're a year away from the election. If the referendum is in fact what's driving support away from the UCP, the government will have an opportunity to try to win that support back,” Young said.
“但距离大选还有一年时间。如果公投确实是导致支持率流失的原因，政府将有机会设法赢回这些支持，”杨说。
And with the price of oil still high and the province’s finances looking to be in better shape Young says that could give the government more money in the coffers to spend big and woo voters.
而且随着油价依然高企、省财政状况似乎好转，杨表示这可能让政府手中有更多资金用于大手笔支出以争取选民。
Albertans’ impressions of Danielle Smith have also soured slightly in recent months, with the poll suggesting a drop of six percentage points in those very or somewhat impressed with her, and a seven point increase in those not at all impressed with her.
民调显示，阿尔伯塔人对丹妮尔·史密斯的印象在最近几个月略有恶化，对她“非常或颇为印象深刻”的比例下降了六个百分点，而“完全不印象深刻”的比例上升了七个百分点。
Albertans’ impressions of Danielle Smith have also soured slightly in recent months, with the poll suggesting a drop of six percentage points in those very or somewhat impressed with her, and a seven point increase in those not at all impressed with her. Twenty-five per cent of respondents are very impressed with NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi, the poll suggests.
民调显示，25%的受访者对新民主党领袖纳希德·内恩希“非常印象深刻”。
“What Albertans are saying is they're not feeling highly impressed with either of these leaders right now,” Brown said.
布朗表示：“阿尔伯塔人传达的信息是，他们目前对这两位领袖都不感到十分印象深刻。”
Carney’s popularity keeps rising But the honeymoon period seems to be still going strong for Prime Minister Mark Carney in Alberta. Fifty-two per cent of respondents said they are very impressed with him, up six points since the last poll.
卡尼的受欢迎程度持续上升，不过马克·卡尼在阿尔伯塔省的“蜜月期”似乎依然持续着。调查显示，52%的受访者对他印象非常深刻，这一比例比上次民意调查时上升了6个百分点。
Carney’s popularity keeps rising But the honeymoon period seems to be still going strong for Prime Minister Mark Carney in Alberta. Fifty-two per cent of respondents said they are very impressed with him, up six points since the last poll.
“我们生活在一个奇怪的时代：一位自由党总理的表现不仅优于当地的省长或反对党领袖，其受欢迎程度甚至远超联邦保守党的领导人，”扬说道。
“We're in this strange universe where a Liberal Prime Minister is doing better than either the premier, or the leader of the Opposition here, and doing much better than the leader of the federal Conservative Party in terms of popularity,” Young said.
她认为，卡尼的高支持率主要归功于他处理与美国的贸易紧张关系的能力；同时，阿尔伯塔省民众也对他推动建设通往不列颠哥伦比亚省海岸的管道项目的承诺表示赞赏。当然，这个项目也是史密斯一直在积极推动的。
Young credits approval largely to Carney’s handling of trade tensions with the United States. He’s also likely benefitting from Albertans happy with his commitment to get a pipeline to the B.C. Coast, she says. It’s a project Smith is, of course, also pushing for.
“具有讽刺意味的是，这份谅解备忘录对卡尼的声望起到了积极作用，但丹妮尔·史密斯本人似乎并未因此获得任何好处，”布朗指出。
“I think there's a bit of an irony here that the MOU is working well for Mark Carney and his popularity, but Danielle Smith doesn't seem to be benefitting from her part in creating the MOU,” said Brown.
布朗强调：公众的好感并不等同于选民的实际投票意向；虽然一些阿尔伯塔省民众可能欣赏卡尼的领导风格，但他们仍不太可能投票给自由党。
Brown notes favourability does not equal voter intention, and some Albertans might appreciate Carney’s style but still be unlikely to cast a ballot for the Liberals.
值得注意的是，卡尼的支持率明显高于保守党领袖皮埃尔·普瓦利耶夫雷——仅有26%的受访者对普瓦利耶夫雷表示印象深刻。
But Carney does boast a higher score than Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, with just 26 per cent of those polled saying they are very impressed with him.
“这对保守党来说无疑是个令人担忧的问题，因为阿尔伯塔省可是保守党的传统根据地，”布朗说道。
"Which has got to be a concern for the Conservative Party, because this is the Conservative heartland,” Brown said.