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政治报

在共和党人面临压力之际,特朗普的白宫开始让步With Republicans under pressure, Trump’s White House starts bending

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白宫的姿态代表了一个显著的变化,对于一个经常将特朗普的优先事项置于在激烈选举中对共和党有政治利益的事项之前的政府而言。白宫正处于分诊模式。

The White House’s posture represents a remarkable change for an administration that has often put Trump’s priorities ahead of what would be politically advantageous to Republicans in tight elections.

距离中期选举还有六周,政府官员正在动用他们原本可能不会使用的政策杠杆,以帮助关键国会竞选中处于劣势的共和党人。他们正在权衡实施为期90天的柴油出口禁令以降低能源价格,考虑在进口外国牛肉的计划上退让,并给予候选人回旋余地,批评唐纳德·特朗普总统继续强调为防止伊朗获得核武器所必需的对伊朗战争。

The White House is in triage mode. Six weeks until the midterm elections, administration officials are pulling policy levers they otherwise might not to help vulnerable Republicans in key congressional races. They’re weighing a 90-day ban on diesel exports in an effort to drive down energy prices, considering backpedaling on a plan to import foreign beef and giving candidates wiggle room to criticize a war with Iran that President Donald Trump continues to stress was necessary to prevent the country from obtaining nuclear weapons.

特朗普向来不吝于攻击与他意见不合的共和党人,最近却容忍了异议,只要候选人批评他的政策而非他个人。一些竞选团队甚至在表明与总统不同的立场前,提前给白宫打个招呼。

Trump, never shy about attacking Republicans who disagree with him, has recently swallowed dissent so long as candidates criticize his policies and not him personally. Some campaigns are even giving the White House a heads up before staking out positions different from the president’s.

“在大多数情况下,候选人或当选官员会致电白宫询问如何操作,因为他们不想与总统对立,”一位了解白宫想法的人士表示,和本文其他消息来源一样,该人士获准匿名描述私人对话。

Trump, never shy about attacking Republicans who disagree with him, has recently swallowed dissent so long as candidates criticize his policies and not him personally. Some campaigns are even giving the White House a heads up before staking out positions different from the president’s.

白宫的最新姿态代表了一个显著的变化,对于一个在决策中经常将特朗普的优先事项置于在激烈选举中对共和党有政治利益的事项之前的政府而言。但在西翼,一种新现实——部分源于民意调查——已扎根,因为政府面临的竞争比仅几个月前预期的要激烈得多。

“More often times than not, a candidate or an elected official will call the White House and ask how to do it, because they are not interested in going against the president,” said one person familiar with the White House’s thinking, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to describe private conversations.

他们在政治和政策层面竭尽所能提供帮助。由于许多竞选极其胶着,专家们将其评为“难以预测”,实际上,在40天内你就能扭转数字,”长期担任特朗普民调专家的约翰·麦克劳克林表示,他的公司正为白宫、共和党全国委员会和特朗普的超级政治行动委员会进行民调。“哪怕只是稍微动摇选民观点,也能赢下许多胶着的竞选。”特朗普一向要求忠诚,常因党派不团结而责备党内人士,但这一次却反常地保持沉默,即使有多位共和党参议员批评他在伊朗和移民执法方面的政策。当众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉萨尔拍摄了一段直面镜头的广告,直接对特朗普批评其移民政策时,他选择与她通电话沟通,而没有在“真相社交”上抨击她。

The White House’s latest posture represents a remarkable change for an administration that in its decisionmaking has often put Trump’s priorities ahead of what would be politically advantageous to Republicans in tight elections. But inside the West Wing, a new reality — informed in part by polling — has taken hold as the administration grapples with far more competitive races than had been expected only a few months ago. “They’re doing everything they can, politically and policy-wise, to help. Since so many races are very close, and rated as toss-ups by the pundits, literally, in 40 days you can move the numbers,” said John McLaughlin, a longtime Trump pollster whose firm is polling for the White House, Republican National Committee and Trump super PACs. “Moving voter opinions even a little bit can win many close races.” Trump, who regularly demands loyalty and often chides his party for not sticking together, has remained uncharacteristically quiet even as several Republican senators have criticized his policies on Iran and immigration enforcement. When Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar cut a direct-to-camera ad speaking directly to Trump criticizing his immigration policy, he spoke with her on the phone about it instead of taking to Truth Social to excoriate her.

“[特朗普]看透了整个局势。他理解整个概念。他明白环境,”知情人士说。“他明白这些人在与他并肩作战,程度超出外界认可。”一位前特朗普政府官员将“批评政策而不抨击个人”的能力称为“安全空间”。“他们批评幕僚,批评执行层面,”该人士说。“从未出现过‘特朗普失败’或‘特朗普错了’的说法。”被问及置评时,白宫官员称关于政府正考虑实施为期90天的柴油出口禁令、并推翻进口外国牛肉决定的报道是“假新闻”。他们列举了一长串十多个领域的成就,包括几十年来首次出现净负移民、125年来最低谋杀率,以及工资上涨伴随创纪录的低贫困率。

“[Trump] understands the whole gambit. He gets the whole concept. He gets the environment,” the person familiar said. “He gets these people are fighting alongside him more than people credit them for.” One former Trump administration official called the ability to criticize the policy without lambasting the man the “safe space.”

“特朗普总统无疑是共和党的领袖、最佳代言人,也是最能激励党员前进的人;他致力于确保共和党在国会中保持多数席位,”白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔在一份声明中表示,并称总统的施政计划“完全符合常识”。许多候选人都在推行总统支持的各项政策,包括可能实施的国会股票交易禁令、提高医疗保健价格透明度的措施,以及打击政府项目中的欺诈行为。此外,这些候选人还大力宣传特朗普推行的减税政策以及为儿童设立的新税收优惠措施。

“They criticize staff. They criticize implementation,” the person said. “It hasn’t been ‘Trump failed’ or ‘Trump’s wrong.’” Asked for comment, White House officials called the reporting that the administration is considering a 90-day diesel export ban and reversing a decision to import foreign beef “fake news.” They touted a long list of accomplishments on more than a dozen topics, including net negative migration for the first time in decades, the lowest homicide rate in 125 years and rising wages coupled with a record low poverty rate.

然而,随着选举日期的临近,一些共和党人认为他们需要采取更多行动,以表达对选民因高物价而感到沮丧的情绪的同情。

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement, calling the president’s agenda “common sense.” And candidates are campaigning on plenty of policies endorsed by the president, including a possible congressional stock trading ban, the president’s efforts to ensure transparency in health care pricing and cracking down on fraud in government programs. Many also tout the president’s tax cuts and the new Trump accounts for kids.

“每个人都在尽自己所能,让自己的竞选活动处于最佳状态;特朗普团队内部的人也会认识到这一点,并允许这些政策得以实施,”一位熟悉特朗普政治团队想法的人士说道。

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement, calling the president’s agenda “common sense.” And candidates are campaigning on plenty of policies endorsed by the president, including a possible congressional stock trading ban, the president’s efforts to ensure transparency in health care pricing and cracking down on fraud in government programs. Many also tout the president’s tax cuts and the new Trump accounts for kids.

白宫也在考虑采取新的措施,向选民表明他们正在努力解决他们的生活成本问题。特朗普表示支持禁止柴油出口,尽管能源部长克里斯·赖特认为这一措施行不通,甚至可能推高汽油和航空燃料的价格。财政部长斯科特·贝森特和内政部长道格·伯格姆也反对这一提议,但当前接近历史最高水平的物价压力似乎正在迫使白宫改变立场。根据美国汽车协会(AAA)的数据,目前一加仑柴油的价格为6.51美元,而一年前这一价格仅为3.69美元。这种高物价形势正在对中西部的农民造成严重打击,同时还会进一步推高食品价格;此外,几乎所有依赖重型卡车进行货物运输的行业也都受到了影响。

But as the election nears, some Republicans feel they need to go further to show they empathize with voters’ frustration with high prices. “Everybody is doing what they need to do to ensure that their campaign is in the best position possible, and you will see folks within Trump world just recognize that and allow it to happen,” said a person familiar with the thinking of Trump’s political team. The White House, too, is considering new efforts to show voters they are working on addressing their cost-of-living concerns. Trump said he favors a diesel export ban even as Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it wouldn’t work and could even drive up gas and jet fuel prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum also oppose the idea, but the political realities of near-record prices appear to be winning out. The average price for a gallon of diesel is $6.51, according to AAA,up from $3.69 one year ago. The impact is hurting farmers in the Midwest and threatening to further raise food prices, not to mention pinching virtually every other industry that uses heavy trucks to move goods around the country.

为了进一步安抚农业州的共和党人,一小群白宫官员正在探讨是否要撤销特朗普增加外国牛肉进口的决定。总统是在8月份提出该计划的,这个时间点对于实质性影响货架上的价格来说可能太晚了,但却足以激怒那些本已在应对更高投入成本的牧场主们,其中部分原因是对伊朗的战争。

The White House, too, is considering new efforts to show voters they are working on addressing their cost-of-living concerns. Trump said he favors a diesel export ban even as Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it wouldn’t work and could even drive up gas and jet fuel prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum also oppose the idea, but the political realities of near-record prices appear to be winning out. The average price for a gallon of diesel is $6.51, according to AAA,up from $3.69 one year ago. The impact is hurting farmers in the Midwest and threatening to further raise food prices, not to mention pinching virtually every other industry that uses heavy trucks to move goods around the country.

民主党战略家大卫·阿克塞尔罗德(David Axelrod)表示:“这些都是权宜之计,在政治史上没有一件是值得称道的。共和党人正处于艰难的处境中。我总是通过观察对方的反应来判断他们对这场竞选走势的看法……这群人的行为可一点也不像那些认为今年不会异常艰难的人。”根据《政治报》(POLITICO)9月份的一项民意调查,总统的支持率已跌至历史新低,53%的美国人表示食品杂货成本是最难负担的开支之一,其次是39%的人认为是住房成本,35%的人认为是公用事业账单。

In another nod to farm-state Republicans, a small group of White House officials is exploring whether to cut back Trump’s decision to increase foreign beef imports. The president proposed the plan in August, likely too late to meaningfully impact prices on the shelves but in plenty of time to enrage ranchers already dealing with higher input costs, in part because of the war in Iran. “These are triage things, and none of them are remarkable in the annals of politics. Republicans are in a difficult position,” said Democratic strategist David Axelrod. “I always looked at the other side for indications of how they thought the race was going … these guys are not acting like guys who don’t believe this is going to be a really tough year.” The president’s approval ratings have sunk to record lows, and 53% of Americans say groceries costs are among the most challenging items to afford, followed by 39% who say housing costs and 35% who say utility bills, according to a September POLITICO Poll.

如今,共和党人不得不将目光扩大到那些特朗普在2024年以两位数优势获胜的州,而不是仅仅把精力集中在佐治亚州、密歇根州、新罕布什尔州和俄亥俄州这少数几个关键参议院选战上。

“These are triage things, and none of them are remarkable in the annals of politics. Republicans are in a difficult position,” said Democratic strategist David Axelrod. “I always looked at the other side for indications of how they thought the race was going … these guys are not acting like guys who don’t believe this is going to be a really tough year.” The president’s approval ratings have sunk to record lows, and 53% of Americans say groceries costs are among the most challenging items to afford, followed by 39% who say housing costs and 35% who say utility bills, according to a September POLITICO Poll.

最近的民意调查显示,艾奥瓦州参议员候选人阿什利·欣森(Ashley Hinson)和阿拉斯加州参议员丹·沙利文(Dan Sullivan)落后于各自的民主党对手,且差距超出了误差范围;与此同时,共和党籍总检察长肯·帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton)在得克萨斯州与民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科(James Talarico)势均力敌。

Now, instead of a narrow focus on a handful of key Senate races in Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire and Ohio, Republicans have had to widen their aperture to states that Trump won by double-digits in 2024. Recent polls have Iowa Senate candidate Ashley Hinson and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan trailing their Democratic opponents outside of the margin of error, while Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is running neck-and-neck with Democrat James Talarico in Texas.

特朗普政府前任命官员兼共和党战略家马修·巴特莱特(Matthew Bartlett)表示:“我交谈过的每一位共和党人都认为,局势好转的机会微乎其微——但他们极度担心局势可能会恶化得多。他们的许多政策——无论是关税、移民还是增加开支——不仅不受欢迎或毫无成效,而且还适得其反。”

“Every Republican I talk with thinks there is a slim chance things get any better — but huge concern they could get significantly worse,” said Matthew Bartlett, a former Trump administration appointee and GOP strategist. “A lot of their policies — whether it’s the tariffs, whether it’s the immigration, spending more — are not just unpopular or ineffective, but they have backfired.”