纽约人患上了斯德哥尔摩综合征吗?这是我能想到的唯一合理的解释,来回答为什么民主党籍州长凯西·霍楚尔(Kathy Hochul)能在民调中领先共和党挑战者布鲁斯·布莱克曼(Bruce Blakeman)。
Are New Yorkers suffering from Stockholm Syndrome? That’s the only plausible explanation I can think of for why Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is leading Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman in the polls.
斯德哥尔摩综合征描述了绑架受害者有时如何与绑架者产生情感联系,就像1973年瑞典银行抢劫和人质事件的最初案例一样,他们会为劫持者辩护甚至对其产生崇拜。霍楚尔今天可能正在受益于这种心理反应。
Stockholm Syndrome describes how kidnapping victims sometimes develop an emotional bond with their abductors, and, as in the original case of a 1973 bank robbery and hostage situation in Sweden, defend and even admire their captors. Hochul may be benefitting from such a response today.
锡耶纳学院(Siena)的最新民调显示,民主党人霍楚尔以50%对41%的得票率领先拿骚县行政长官布莱克曼9个百分点。诚然,她的优势正在略微下滑,但同一项民调显示,65%的纽约人预计这位州长将在11月成功连任。
The latest Siena survey shows Hochul, a Democrat, ahead of Nassau County Executive Blakeman by 9 points, 50-41. True, her advantage is slipping slightly, but the same poll shows that 65 percent of New Yorkers expect the governor to be reelected in November.
这在当前全国上下如此痴迷于“生活可负担性”的背景下显得毫无道理——为什么纽约人还会考虑让现任州长连任?她可以说是把帝国州(Empire State)变成地球上最难以承受生活成本的地方之一的推手。根据《世界人口评论》(World Population Review)的数据,纽约州是全美总体生活成本第四高的州,在房租昂贵程度上也排名第四。纽约州的食品杂货价格全美排名第十,医疗保健成本全美第九,交通费用全美第八。
This makes little sense, with the country so obsessed with “affordability” — why would New Yorkers even consider reelecting the current governor, who has arguably helped make the Empire State one of the least affordable places on earth? According to the World Population Review, New York is the fourth most expensive state in the union overall, also ranking fourth most costly for rents. New York is the 10th most expensive state for groceries, ninth priciest for health care and eighth most expensive for transportation. In other words, New York is, for far too many people, anything but affordable. Voters should know: it doesn’t have to be this way. Hochul and her disgraced predecessor Andrew Cuomo have made a series of decisions that have driven costs up, but that could be reversed by a change in leadership.
换句话说,对太多人而言,纽约的生活可以说是毫无性价比可言。选民们应该知道:事情本不必如此。霍楚尔和她那声名狼藉的前任安德鲁·科莫(Andrew Cuomo)做出了一系列推高成本的决策,而这些决策本可以通过更换领导层来扭转。
Let’s start with energy. Yes, the war in Iran has inflated the cost of gasoline and other petroleum products, like diesel fuel, in recent months. But New Yorkers have been staring down rising charges for heating their home and filling their tanks since long before President Trump dropped the first bombs on Tehran.
让我们从能源开始说起。是的,伊朗战争推高了最近几个月汽油以及柴油等其他石油产品的价格。但早在特朗普总统向德黑兰投下第一批炸弹之前很久,纽约人就已经在面对不断上涨的取暖费和油费了。
Pandering to the green lobby, New York state officials decided to ban fracking in 2015 and prevent the construction of natural gas pipelines. This was a colossal error. Natural gas is one of America’s most abundant fossil fuels, and one of the cleanest. Hysteria over the possible harm that could come from fracking drove a knee-jerk decision that has caused long-term pain for New Yorkers. Many have likened the politically expedient choice to Hochul’s recent pause on data center construction, which will cost New Yorkers many jobs.
为迎合环保游说团体,纽约州官员于2015年决定禁止水力压裂采掘,并阻止天然气管道建设。这是一个极其严重的错误。天然气是美国储量最丰富的化石燃料之一,也是最清洁的化石燃料之一。针对水力压裂可能危害健康的歇斯底里情绪,促成了一个仓促而不计后果的决定,给纽约州居民带来了长期痛苦许多人将这一政治上的权宜之举,与霍赫尔近期暂停数据中心建设的做法相提并论,后者将导致纽约州失去大量就业岗位。
Neighboring Pennsylvania has enacted no such ban on fracking and currently ranks second in the nation in natural gas production, behind only Texas. That helps explain why New Yorkers pay on average $98 per month to heat their homes while the residents of Pennsylvania only shell out $82 every month.
邻近的宾夕法尼亚州并未颁布此类禁令,目前该州天然气产量在全国排名第二,仅次于得克萨斯州。这也在一定程度上解释了为什么纽约州居民每月平均花费98美元为家庭供暖,而宾夕法尼亚州居民每月只需支付82美元。
It isn’t just natural gas prices that are putting the screws to New Yorkers. Electricity prices, at 29 cents per kilowatt hour in June, are also through the roof. That compares with 22 cents in Pennsylvania and, for reference, 15 cents in Florida. The suffocating expense of electricity isn’t due to higher feedstock costs, though that plays a role; it also reflects the damaging impact of New York’s push to cut greenhouse emissions, a move Hochul is trying desperately to reverse.
让纽约州居民日子难过的并不只是天然气价格。6月,每千瓦时电价高达29美分,同样高得令人难以承受。相比之下,宾夕法尼亚州为22美分,佛罗里达州为15美分。令人窒息的电费开支并非仅仅源于燃料成本上升,尽管这确实也是其中一个因素;它还反映出纽约州大力推动减少温室气体排放所造成的负面影响,而霍赫尔正拼命试图扭转这一局面。
In 2019 New York legislators passed the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, meant to reduce emissions by 40 percent from 1990 levels and by 85 percent by 2050. The law also demanded the state switch to 100 percent zero-emission electricity by 2040. None of these targets could be met without enacting a cap-and-trade program that Hochul claimed would cost New York families more than $4,000 per year by 2031. Not surprisingly, Hochul is moving to postpone these requirements.
2019年,纽约州立法者通过了《气候领导与社区保护法》,旨在使温室气体排放量到2050年较1990年减少85%,其中到2020年需减少40%。该法律还要求全州到2040年全面改用零排放电力。如果不实施总量控制与交易计划,这些目标无一能够实现。霍赫尔声称,到2031年,该计划会让纽约州每个家庭每年承担超过4000美元的成本。毫不意外的是,霍赫尔正设法推迟这些要求。
It isn’t just energy that has been mishandled in New York. Consider housing. According to an analysis by New York’s own state controller, the Empire State’s housing cost burden relative to income ranks third in the country. New York City rents are among the highest in the nation and continue to climb, despite Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s campaign promises to bring them down. Rents in Manhattan have jumped 10 percent over the last year, reaching an all-time high.
在纽约,处理不当的并不只是能源问题。再看住房。据纽约州审计长分析,纽约州的住房成本占收入的比例位居全国第三。尽管市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼在竞选时承诺降低房租,纽约市的租金仍位居全国前列并持续攀升。过去一年,曼哈顿区的租金上涨了10%,创下历史新高。
Of course, all prices are subject to the laws of supply and demand, including housing. Cumbersome regulations drive building costs in New York to the highest in the entire world, restricting supply. It costs on average $211 per square foot to build in New York, compared to $160 in Florida, even as the Sunshine State is experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime building boom.
当然,包括住房在内的一切价格都受供需规律支配。繁复的监管规定推高了纽约的建筑成本,使其成为全球最高,并限制了住房供应。纽约的平均建筑成本为每平方英尺211美元,而佛罗里达州仅为160美元,即便这个“阳光之州”正经历一场一生仅见一回的建筑热潮。
Why are all these comparisons so damaging for New York? According to a report from the nonpartisan Citizens Budget Commission out earlier this year, “New York’s business environment is already challenging, ranking the 10th worst state for starting small businesses, 3rd slowest in average growth in small businesses, and the 2nd most regulated state in the nation.” Those regulations translate into higher costs, which, along with sky-high taxes, get passed along to consumers.
为什么这些对比对纽约如此不利?公民预算委员会今年早些时候发布的一份报告称:“纽约州的营商环境本已颇具挑战,在创办小企业方面排名全美倒数第10,小企业平均增速倒数第3,受监管程度则居全国第2。”这些监管规定会推高成本,而高得离谱的税负加上这些成本,最终都会转嫁给消费者。既然生活成本能否这些支票或许能讨好某些选民,但他们应该明白,纽约承担不起这些款项。随着富裕居民和企业继续离开该州,支付这些施舍的负担将落在留下来的人身上,无论通过直接征税还是不断提高的企业税。
Given that affordability is currently voters’ No.1 issue, how can anyone reelect a governor who has delivered high prices and appears determined to continue along the same path? Hochul knows she’s vulnerable on this score. That’s why she’s trying to hoodwink voters by sending payments to help defray soaring utility costs to low- and mid-level income households, right before the election. Some would call that bribery. Those checks may please some voters, but they should know that New York cannot afford those payments. As wealthy residents and businesses continue to leave the state, the burden of paying for those handouts will fall on the people who remain, either through direct taxation or ever-higher business taxes.
纽约的开支已经失控,而霍楚尔对此却毫无作为。但骗局不可能永远维持下去。让我们希望这位州长的日子在今年11月到头吧。
Those checks may please some voters, but they should know that New York cannot afford those payments. As wealthy residents and businesses continue to leave the state, the burden of paying for those handouts will fall on the people who remain, either through direct taxation or ever-higher business taxes.
莉兹·皮克(Liz Peek)曾是华尔街顶级公司韦特海姆公司(Wertheim and Company)的合伙人。
Spending in New York is out of control, and Hochul is doing nothing to rein it in. But you can’t run a scam forever. Let’s hope time runs out on the governor this November. Liz Peek is a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim and Company.