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政治报

民调:特朗普的驱逐出境政策联盟出现裂痕Poll: A crack is emerging in Trump’s coalition over deportations

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唐纳德·特朗普总统的大规模驱逐移民政策在其自身的选民阵营中遇到了阻力:越来越多的共和党候选人在11月大选前夕公开与他站在一起。

President Donald Trump’s mass deportation campaign is running into resistance within his own voter coalition, as more and more Republican candidates publicly break with him ahead of the November election.

《Politico》的最新民意调查结果解释了这一现象:那些不支持特朗普“MAGA”(“Make America Great Again”)政策的选民认为他的驱逐移民政策过于激进的比例,是非MAGA选民的两倍多(分别为31%和14%);而自认为是MAGA选民的人中,只有14%认为该政策“恰到好处”。不过,MAGA阵营的选民希望特朗普能采取更严厉的措施——36%的MAGA选民认为政府的政策力度还不够,而非MAGA选民中这一比例为23%。

New results from The POLITICO Poll help explain why: Non-MAGA Trump voters are more than twice as likely as self-identified MAGA Trump voters to say his mass deportation campaign is too aggressive, 31% to 14%. While roughly similar shares of both groups believe Trump’s campaign is about right, the MAGA base wants him to go even further: 36% of MAGA Trump voters say his campaign is not aggressive enough, compared with 23% of non-MAGA Trump voters. Meanwhile, support across Trump’s entire voter coalition falls when it comes to deporting people beyond the most violent offenders, such as those with minor criminal offenses or who have been living in the U.S. for years without legal status.

此外,当涉及到驱逐那些非暴力犯罪者(如仅犯有轻微罪行的人或那些在美国非法居留多年的人)时,特朗普在整个选民阵营中的支持率也出现了下降。

Meanwhile, support across Trump’s entire voter coalition falls when it comes to deporting people beyond the most violent offenders, such as those with minor criminal offenses or who have been living in the U.S. for years without legal status.

这项由总部位于伦敦的Public First机构进行的调查显示,特朗普的移民政策——这一长期被视为共和党核心议题、并曾帮助其两次赢得总统大选的政策——正在分裂那些曾经支持他的选民群体。尽管MAGA阵营的选民仍比其他特朗普的支持者更倾向于支持强硬的移民政策,但选民们对政府行动的容忍度其实是有极限的。

The new survey, conducted by London-based Public First, reveals how Trump’s immigration agenda — which has long been one of his signature political issues and a reliable GOP rallying point — has divided the very coalition that helped power his two presidential wins. The president’s MAGA loyalists are still more inclined than other Trump voters to support a tougher immigration posture, but there are clear limits to how far voters want the administration to go.

这些党内矛盾本月终于公开化了:佛罗里达州共和党众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉萨尔(Maria Elvira Salazar)发布了一则反对特朗普移民政策的竞选广告,称他的某些举措“已经走得太远”,并指出那些在2024年支持过他的西班牙裔选民“感到被背叛”。这位共和党议员的公开反对,标志着共和党内部在特朗普核心政策上的严重分歧。与此同时,民主党人也将佛罗里达州第27选区视为夺取众议院控制权的关键目标。

Those intraparty tensions burst into public view this month, when Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) released a campaign ad pushing back against Trump’s deportation agenda, saying some of his efforts “have gone too far” and that Hispanic voters who supported him in 2024 “feel betrayed.” It was a remarkable break from a sitting GOP lawmaker over one of the president’s defining policies, as Democrats have locked in on Florida’s 27th District as a prime target in their bid to flip the House.

萨拉扎尔与特朗普之间的公开分歧,恰恰印证了共和党人几个月来私下里所担心的问题:特朗普的移民执法政策(去年曾通过大规模、高调的突击行动在多个社区引发轩然大波)正在疏远那些原本支持边境安全与移民执法的温和派共和党人、独立选民以及拉丁裔选民。这些选民虽然原则上认同这些政策,但却对政策的执行方式感到不满。

Salazar’s public rift with Trump exemplifies the fears Republicans had been privately warning about for months: that the president’s immigration enforcement — marked last year by high-profile, flashy raids that rippled through communities — was alienating moderate Republicans, independents, young voters and Latinos who support border security and immigration enforcement in theory but dislike how it is being carried out.

随着共和党面临严峻的中期选举形势(尤其是在特朗普在2024年获胜的选区和州),其他共和党候选人纷纷效仿萨拉扎尔的做法,在移民等关键问题上与政府保持距离——尽管他们去年还投票通过了数十亿美元用于边境安全和移民执法的预算。周三,堪萨斯州共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔(Roger Marshall)也改变了自己的立场;由于堪萨斯州西南部的突击行动导致许多企业和学校暂时关闭,他公开表示在移民与海关执法问题上需要调整政策。他在社交媒体上写道:“当ICE(美国移民与海关执法局)在堪萨斯州开展行动时,必须与当地执法部门协调合作。我们的警长和警察比任何人都更了解这些社区的情况,只有共同努力才能确保执法人员与居民的安全。”他还表示自己已与国土安全部部长马克韦恩·穆林(Markwayne Mullin)进行了直接沟通。

And as the party stares down a difficult midterm landscape, including in districts and states Trump won in 2024, other GOP candidates followed Salazar’s lead, increasingly putting distance between themselves and the administration on key issues like immigration — despite having voted last year to approve billions of dollars for border security and immigration enforcement. On Wednesday, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), whose race has tightened against Democrat Adam Hamilton, also softened his stance on Immigration and Customs Enforcement as raids in southwest Kansas prompt temporary business closures and schools. “When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement. Our sheriffs and police know these communities better than anyone, and working together keeps officers and residents safe,” he wrote on social media, adding that he’s been in direct contact with Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin.

根据《Politico》的民意调查,大多数美国人(包括支持特朗普的“MAGA”派选民和非“MAGA”派选民)都认为,那些被判处严重暴力或性犯罪的人应该被优先驱逐出境;这表明在如何实施移民执法政策方面,人们普遍认同采取更加有针对性的措施。

The POLITICO Poll finds most Americans — including majorities of both MAGA and non-MAGA Trump voters — believe people convicted of serious violent or sexual offenses should be prioritized for deportation, underscoring broad agreement on a more targeted approach to enforcement.

该调查还发现,无论是支持“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)的选民还是不支持这一理念的特朗普选民,都很少有人主张优先将其他群体列为驱逐对象。在两个群体中,只有不到四分之一的人认为应优先驱逐那些犯有轻微刑事罪行的人。当被问及是否应优先驱逐那些在美国非法居留多年的人或那些在美国有未成年子女的人时,这种支持率进一步下降。

The survey also finds that few people — including among both MAGA and non-MAGA Trump voters — prioritized targeting other groups for deportations. Less than a quarter of each group say people convicted of minor criminal offenses should be prioritized. Support falls further when voters are asked about prioritizing people who have lived in the U.S. for several years without legal status or people with dependent children in the U.S.

“这在很大程度上取决于人们谈论这个问题的方式。他们并不支持对违法者给予赦免,他们希望每个人都遵守法律、按规矩行事,”一位不愿公开姓名的白宫内部人士这样解释共和党人对这一问题的看法。“他们明白,有些人可能是守法且勤奋工作的。”

“A lot of it has to do with how you talk about it. They don’t want amnesty for people who have broken the law. They want everybody to do it the right way,” said a person close to the White House granted anonymity to discuss how Republicans are viewing the issue. “They understand that some people might be law-abiding, hard working.”

白宫发言人劳伦·比斯(Lauren Bis)称《政治报》(Politico)“歪曲数据以制造虚假的舆论”。她说:“美国人民选举特朗普上台,是为了阻止外国人对我国的入侵,并驱逐拜登和民主党人允许进入美国的数百万非法移民。总统正在履行他的承诺。”

White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said POLITICO is “skewing data to paint a false narrative.” “The American people sent President Trump back to the White House to stop the invasion of our country and deport the millions of illegal aliens Biden and Democrats allowed into the country. The president is delivering on his promises,” she said.

在发布那则广告几天后,萨拉扎尔(Salazar)表示她与特朗普进行了“非常愉快的交谈”,并敦促他保护自己在移民问题上为共和党带来的政治优势。她还在上周末对CBS电视台表示,特朗普和普通美国人都明白“毒贩、保姆、黑帮分子以及普通劳动者之间的区别”。她认为政府应该区分罪犯与那些在农业、建筑、酒店服务业和医疗保健等关键行业中工作的非法移民。

Days after releasing the ad, Salazar said she had a “fantastic conversation” with Trump and urged him to protect the political “fortune” he had brought to the Republican Party on immigration. She also told CBS last weekend that Trump and the average American understand “the between the narco and the nanny and the gangster and the gardener.” She said the administration should distinguish between criminals and unauthorized immigrants working in crucial industries such as agriculture, construction, hospitality and health care.

这种分歧在《POLITICO》的民意调查中也有体现:无论是支持“MAGA”(让美国再次伟大)政策的选民,还是不支持该政策的特朗普选民,都愿意维持或增加进入美国在医疗保健、农业等劳动力短缺行业工作的人数。其中,65%的“MAGA”支持者以及69%的不支持“MAGA”政策的选民表示,他们希望看到进入这些行业的移民人数保持不变或有所增加。

That distinction is also reflected in The POLITICO Poll. Both MAGA and non-MAGA Trump voters are open to maintaining or increasing the number of people coming into the U.S. to work in sectors facing labor shortages, such as health care or agriculture. Sixty-five percent of MAGA Trump voters and 69% non-MAGA Trump voters say they want to see about the same number — or more — people coming to the U.S. to work in those sectors facing labor shortages.

“2025年1月上台的‘特朗普2.0’完全误解了选民在2024年期间向他和乔·拜登表达的诉求——选民们实际上希望看到美墨边境变得更加有序和安全,”曾为卡玛拉·哈里斯2024年竞选活动进行民意调查的马特·巴雷托(Matt Barreto)说道。“然而特朗普却对美国民众说:‘现在我要去追捕那些为美国工作、做出贡献的移民。’这种做法遭到了极低的支持率。”过去的《POLITICO》移民民意调查显示,特朗普政府在移民问题上未能扭转选民的负面看法。去年秋天,共和党人在关键选区就已经对政府的移民政策表示担忧;这种担忧在随后的几个月里进一步加剧,而当联邦特工在明尼阿波利斯杀害两名美国公民后,选民的负面情绪更是进一步固化。

“Trump 2.0 that took over in January 2025 completely misread what voters were telling him and Joe Biden during 2024, which was that they wanted to see more order and security over the U.S.-Mexico border,” said Matt Barreto, who conducted polling for former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 campaign. “Instead, what Trump told Americans was, ‘Now I’m going to go hunt down immigrants who are just working and contributing to America.’ And there was extremely limited support for that.” Past POLITICO polling on immigration has shown that the Trump administration has been unable to reverse the damage with voters on the issue. Last fall, battleground Republicans were already expressing concern about the administration’s immigration tactics. Those concerns intensified in the months that followed, while negative voter sentiment hardened by April after federal agents killed two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis.

在两党强烈反对的压力下,特朗普政府改变了其言论风格,放弃了那些常常导致与抗议者发生冲突的突击行动。特朗普还任命了穆林(Mullin)担任相关职务,穆林迅速努力修复与国会的关系,并尽量避免国土安全部成为媒体关注的焦点。

The Trump administration, in the wake of bipartisan outrage, softened its rhetoric and abandoned flashy raids that often devolved into clashes with protesters. The president also installed Mullin, who moved quickly to repair relationships on Capitol Hill and keep the Department of Homeland Security out of the headlines.

但穆林同时也面临着来自“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)运动批评者以及移民问题强硬派的压力;这些人认为他并未真正履行总统关于驱逐数百万非法移民的承诺。为了争取这些群体的支持,包括穆林在内的政府高层官员纷纷加大了有关美国移民与海关执法局(ICE)的报道力度,发布了大量关于逮捕人数的数据,并对政府的移民执法政策发表了强硬的言论。

But Mullin is also facing pressure from MAGA critics and immigration hardliners who think he’s not committed to the president’s vow to deport millions of unauthorized immigrants. In an effort to shore up his support with that contingent, top administration accounts, including Mullin’s, have ramped up posts about ICE, arrests statistics and tough talk about the administration’s immigration enforcement agenda.