当选举观察者们讨论今年哪些参议院选举会最为激烈、竞争最为白热化时，几乎没有人会把堪萨斯州列入考虑范围。毕竟，堪萨斯州一直是一个保守的“红色州”（即共和党占优势的州），该州从未选出过民主党籍的参议员。
When election watchers were considering which of this year’s Senate contests would be the most competitive, few gave Kansas a second look. This is, after all, a red state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate .
现任共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔无疑对获胜充满信心——他之所以有这种信心，与其个人政绩关系不大，更多是因为他的姓氏中带有“R”（代表共和党），而许多选民更看重党派归属而非候选人的实际能力。
Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall was no doubt optimistic that he could get away with just about anything and win — less because of his record and more because he has an “R” after his name, and many voters were likely to care more about party identification than merit.
然而，随着选举日只剩下39天的时间，堪萨斯州的这场选举变得异常引人注目，以至于民主党人也开始决定投入资源参与这场他们此前认为毫无胜算的竞选活动。《Politico》报道称：作为民主党参议院竞选活动的核心支持机构，该党的超级政治行动委员会（super PAC）的领导层正在积极考虑是否应该介入堪萨斯州以及其他更加保守的共和党控制下的州。他们希望利用当前日益有利的政治环境来争取更多支持。
But with 39 days remaining before Election Day, the Kansas contest has become so interesting that Democrats are prepared to start investing in a race they fairly recently thought was unwinnable. Politico reported:
“不仅在堪萨斯州，还有其他四五个地方也存在值得关注的机会，”参议院多数党超级政治行动委员会的主席JB·珀施（JB Poersch）表示，“我们并非只是旁观者，而是在思考如果这些选举仍保持激烈竞争态势，我们该如何参与其中。我们正在积极探讨自己应该扮演的角色。”
The leaders of Senate Democrats’ flagship super PAC are “actively thinking” about whether to wade into Kansas and other even redder states as the party looks to leverage an increasingly favorable environment ahead of November.
时间会证明这些计划是否能够真正付诸实施——毕竟，仅仅“考虑”投资与实际投入资金之间还是有很大区别的——但民主党参议院多数党超级政治行动委员会的这种态度其实并不令人意外。事实上，有很多迹象表明堪萨斯州的这场参议院选举确实是全国最引人关注的选举之一。
“There’s some good arguments out in not just Kansas, in four or five other places. And we’re not just watching — we’re thinking about ways we might get involved if they stay earnestly competitive,” said JB Poersch, the president of Senate Majority PAC. “We’re actively thinking about what role will we play at that point.” Time will tell whether the super PAC follows through — there’s obviously a big difference between writing a check and “actively thinking” about an investment — but the Senate Majority PAC’s interest is hardly shocking. There’s no shortage of overlapping elements to suggest Kansas is home to the nation’s most interesting Senate race.
几十年来，民主党在堪萨斯州的参议院选举中总是选择那些“容易成为牺牲品”的候选人；但今年，民主党选民选择了亚当·汉密尔顿牧师作为候选人。这位基督教牧师领导着美国最大的卫理公会教区，并且非常擅长应对共和党的攻击。
The right Democrat for the right race: For decades, Democrats nominated sacrificial lambs in Kansas’ Senate races. This year, the party’s voters nominated the Rev. Adam Hamilton, a Christian pastor who leads the nation’s largest Methodist congregation and who’s proven quite adept at shrugging off the usual GOP attacks.
汉密尔顿正在获得越来越多的共和党人的支持：前共和党州长比尔·格雷夫斯已在《堪萨斯城星报》的一篇社论中公开支持这位民主党候选人；最近，这位前州长还专门制作了一段新的视频来为汉密尔顿加油助威。
Hamilton is picking up prominent Republican backers: Former Republican Gov. Bill Graves had already endorsed the Democratic nominee in a Kansas City Star op-ed, and more recently, the former governor took an additional step, making a new video in support of Hamilton.
同样，阿奇·纳拉莫尔（Arch Naramore）——这位一生都支持共和党的政治人物曾在共和党初选中与马歇尔（Marshall）竞争——也本周发布了一段支持马歇尔的视频。
Similarly, Arch Naramore, a lifelong Republican who ran against Marshall in a GOP primary, also released a video endorsement of Marshall this week.
关于马歇尔的负面传闻：堪萨斯州的选民们最近了解到：在马歇尔从事私人医生职业期间，当患者无力支付医疗费用时，他会扣押他们的工资并申请逮捕令。有大量证据表明当地选民已经知晓这些丑闻，并认为这些行为非常严重。
The bill collector: Kansans recently learned that Marshall garnished paychecks and pushed arrest warrants when his patients couldn’t afford their medical bills during his time as a physician in private practice. There’s ample evidence to suggest local voters heard about the story and consider it important.
马歇尔处于防御姿态：在多年来一直充当唐纳德·特朗普的“马屁精”（大约一年前，马歇尔曾对Newsmax表示：“在特朗普的领导下，一切皆有可能”）之后，这位现任参议员突然开始批评移民与海关执法部门，并谴责白宫的一些政策。
Marshall is on the defensive: After spending years as a sycophantic surrogate for Donald Trump (around this time a year ago, Marshall told Newsmax, “With Trump, all things are possible”), the incumbent senator is suddenly criticizing Immigration and Customs Enforcement and denouncing elements of the White House agenda.
共和党领导层显然非常紧张：在选举周期还剩约50天的情况下，副总统J.D.万斯（JD Vance）专门在堪萨斯州举行集会来支持马歇尔，这充分反映了共和党内部的焦虑情绪。
Republican leaders are clearly nervous: That Vice President JD Vance headlined a rally in Kansas with roughly 50 days remaining in the election cycle specifically to boost Marshall reflects the significance of the GOP’s anxieties.
马歇尔始终无法摆脱关于自己是否真正属于堪萨斯州居民的质疑：人们不断追问他是否仍是一个真正的堪萨斯人——他的竞选声明中填写的住址其实是他五年前卖掉的房子。据《堪萨斯反射报》上周报道：“美国参议员罗杰·马歇尔在佛罗里达州萨拉索塔的根基比此前公开的信息更为深厚；他在那里拥有一处度假屋。在马歇尔担任参议员期间，他和妻子在萨拉索塔安顿下来，举办了筹款活动、购买了房产、取得了钓鱼许可证，并在该海滨小镇办理了相关手续，同时仍坚称自己的家乡是堪萨斯州。”独立竞选分析师们也注意到了这一变化：《库克政治报告》最近调整了对这场选举的预测，将马歇尔的胜算从‘很有希望’下调为‘可能获胜’；其他媒体也纷纷跟进这一调整，认为马歇尔这样的候选人完全有可能在这个传统上属于共和党的州中实现意外胜出。
Marshall can’t shake residency questions: Dogged by questions about whether he’s still a true Kansan — his candidate statement listed his home address as a home he sold five years ago — the Kansas Reflector reported last week, “U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall established deeper roots than previously disclosed in Sarasota, Florida, where he had a vacation home. … Marshall and his wife put down roots in Sarasota, hosting fundraising events, obtaining real estate and fishing licenses and filing paperwork from the coastal Florida town while the senator worked in Washington, D.C., and claimed Kansas as home.” Independent campaign analysts have noticed: The Cook Political Report recently tweaked its expectations for the race, shifting it from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican, and other outlets have done the same thing, recognizing Hamilton as the kind of candidate who could defy the odds and score an upset in the reliably red state.
《华盛顿邮报》的凯瑟琳·帕克在最近的一篇专栏文章中指出：“堪萨斯州民众已经有近100年没有给民主党参议员机会了……”39天后，我们就能知道堪萨斯州的民众是否真的持有同样的看法了。
Noting how long it’s been since Kansans gave a Democratic Senate candidate a chance, The Washington Post’s Kathleen Parker wrote in a recent column, “Nearly 100 years of Republicanism seems long enough.” We’ll find out in 39 days whether Kansans are thinking along the same lines.