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前副总统阿尔·戈尔:尽管气候危险加速,一个清洁的地球仍在世界的掌控之中Former VP Al Gore: A clean Earth is within world's grasp even as climate dangers accelerate

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塞思·博恩斯坦(纽约)—— 长期致力于气候保护的阿尔·戈尔认为,人类已经掌握了战胜气候危机的钥匙,但他仍担心这一机会可能会从我们手中溜走。

SETH BORENSTEIN NEW YORK — Longtime climate warrior Al Gore sees victory within Earth’s grasp. But he worries that it could still slip through humanity’s fingers.

“虽然我们正处于极其危险的境地,但我相信2026年有可能被历史铭记为人类走向积极变革的起点,”戈尔在纽约气候周期间接受美联社采访时说道。他认为,随着太阳能等可再生能源逐渐取代污染严重的化石燃料,全球对煤炭、石油和天然气的依赖将会达到顶峰。

“While we’re in grave danger, but I think there is a possibility that 2026 will be looked back upon in the history books as the beginning of a positive tipping point,” Gore said in a sit down interview with The Associated Press during New York Climate Week. He sees a good chance the world is peaking its use of coal, oil and gas, which cause global warming, as solar and other renewable power is overtaking dirtier fossil fuels.

这段历史让这位前美国副总统感到乐观。他将推动地球走向更清洁未来的努力,比作美国民权运动、纳尔逊·曼德拉的反种族隔离运动以及女性平等运动:“这些都是人类历史上面临的重大道德挑战。”

History makes the former U.S. vice president hopeful. He compared the effort to make a cleaner world to the U.S. civil rights movement, Nelson Mandela’s anti-apartheid movement and women’s equality efforts as “the other great morally based challenges that humanity has confronted in the past.

“在所有这些运动中,倡导者们都曾经历过绝望的时刻,但他们依然坚持下去,因为勇气并非意味着没有恐惧,而是即使面对恐惧也要勇往直前的决心。”然而,自然界的恶化趋势令他感到担忧:全球变暖正在加速,极端天气事件(如热浪、冰川崩塌以及导致尼泊尔1300人死亡的洪水)日益频繁。

“And in all of those prior movements,” he said, “there were times when the advocates felt despair but they kept going because courage is not the absence of fear, it’s the determination to go forward in spite of it.” Nature makes him nervous because Earth’s warming is accelerating and with it extreme weather, such as heat waves and the deadly glacier collapse and flooding that killed 1,300 people in Nepal.

“我天生乐观,但面临的危险确实非常严重,而且情况还在不断恶化,”戈尔说。他经常被那些不理解科学事实的政治对手指责为“末日预言家”。“我们正在目睹这些极端事件的爆发速度越来越快,它们的破坏性也越来越强……这就像是在《启示录》中经历的一场‘自然灾难’。”

“I’m temperamentally optimistic, but the dangers are extremely grave, getting more so all the time,” said, Gore, often accused of being a doomsayer by nonscientist political opponents. “We’re seeing these extreme events come fast and furious. They’re worse as well as more frequent. ... It’s like a nature hike through the book of Revelation.” “This is a close race between the unfathomable risk we are taking, the unacceptable damages we are enduring on one hand, and the incredibly exciting advance of all the clean, cheap, job-producing alternatives that people not under the sway of the fossil fuel industry are adopting in droves,” Gore said.

“目前,我们正面临着一个严峻的抉择:一方面是我们在承担的巨大风险以及由此带来的不可接受的破坏;另一方面则是那些清洁、廉价且能够创造就业机会的替代能源技术正在迅速发展,越来越多的人正在积极采用这些技术,”戈尔总结道。

“I’m temperamentally optimistic, but the dangers are extremely grave, getting more so all the time,” said, Gore, often accused of being a doomsayer by nonscientist political opponents. “We’re seeing these extreme events come fast and furious. They’re worse as well as more frequent. ... It’s like a nature hike through the book of Revelation.” “This is a close race between the unfathomable risk we are taking, the unacceptable damages we are enduring on one hand, and the incredibly exciting advance of all the clean, cheap, job-producing alternatives that people not under the sway of the fossil fuel industry are adopting in droves,” Gore said.

他列举了一些令人印象深刻的数据:非洲每天安装10万块太阳能板;美国新增发电量的91%来自可再生能源;今年全球销售的汽车中,有30%是电动汽车。他还提到,在巴基斯坦,嫁妆中通常会包含三块太阳能板。

He ticked off factoids such as Africa installing 100,000 solar panels per day, that 91% of the new U.S. electricity generation was renewable and that 30% of all new car s sold globally this year will be electric. And, he said, in Pakistan the common dowry now includes three solar panels.

“谁会赢得这场竞赛?”戈尔说,“答案掌握在我们手中。这个故事的‘最后一章’还需要一段时间才会到来,但我认为我们确实正处于一个转折点。”十年前,全球55%的投资用于化石燃料,45%用于可再生能源;如今这一比例已经反过来了(即65%的投资用于可再生能源)。戈尔指出,当一项新技术变得比旧技术更便宜时,社会就会发生变革——就像手机取代了固定电话一样。

Who will win the race? “The answer is in our hands,” Gore said. “The last chapter of this story won’t come for a while, but I think we really are at a turning point.” Ten years ago, 55% of the world’s investment was in fossil fuels and 45% in renewables. Now it’s 65% renewables, Gore said. He said society changes when a new technology becomes cheaper than the old one, much like cellphones supplanting, then replacing landlines.

三位气候科学家基本认同戈尔对气候变化危险性的评估,但他们仍然持乐观态度。

Who will win the race? “The answer is in our hands,” Gore said. “The last chapter of this story won’t come for a while, but I think we really are at a turning point.” Ten years ago, 55% of the world’s investment was in fossil fuels and 45% in renewables. Now it’s 65% renewables, Gore said. He said society changes when a new technology becomes cheaper than the old one, much like cellphones supplanting, then replacing landlines.

“我同意阿尔·戈尔的观点:在可再生能源技术的应用和成本下降方面,我们确实取得了巨大进展,”德国波茨坦气候影响研究所所长约翰·罗克斯特伦说,“但目前的困境在于,这些可再生能源技术还远远无法满足不断增长的能源需求。我们尚未能够有效遏制石油、天然气和煤炭的消费。”

Three climate scientists basically agreed with Gore’s assessments of both increasing dangers, but also still had an optimistic outlook. “I agree with Al Gore that we have incredible progress on exponential rise in adoption and decline in price for renewable electric green solutions,” said Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany. “But the dilemma, so far, is that they largely meet growing energy demand. We are not yet bending the curve on oil, gas and coal.”

澳大利亚气候分析公司(Climate Analytics)的首席执行官比尔·黑尔(Bill Hare)与戈尔一样对未来充满乐观,他认为“随着清洁技术的快速发展,我们一定能够实现目标”。不过他也担心:“这一进程的速度还不够快,而且正受到化石燃料行业的阻碍。”

Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare of Australia said he’s generally optimistic like Gore “about what we can achieve particularly with the rapid development of clean technology.” But, he said, “I am the at the same time fearful that this is not fast enough and is being held back by the fossil fuel industry.”

尽管变革的步伐还不够快,宾夕法尼亚大学的迈克尔·曼(Michael Mann)认为戈尔的态度至关重要:“在当前这个关键时刻,悲观主义、绝望情绪以及人们对变化的漠不关心才是最大的威胁。我们必须避免成为这些负面因素的受害者。”

Even though change isn’t fast enough, the University of Pennsylvania’s Michael Mann said Gore’s tone is crucial: “Doomism, despair and disengagement is the greatest threat at this point. We must not fall victim to it.”

78岁的戈尔坚信:在他的有生之年,我们一定能看到碳排放曲线出现明显的下降趋势。即使这一过程需要更长的时间,那也没关系。他用犹太教《塔木德》中的一句话来表达自己的观点:“只要我们坚持努力,目标终究会实现。”

Gore is having none of that. At 78, he thinks he’ll see meaningful bends in the carbon pollution curve in his lifetime. But even if it takes longer, that’s OK, Gore said, paraphrasing the Jewish Talmud:

“你不必完成这项工作,但你有责任着手去做。”美联社的气候和环境报道获得多个私人基金会的资金支持。AP对所有内容负全责。请前往AP.org查看AP与慈善机构合作的标准、支持者名单以及获得资助的报道领域。

“You are not required to finish the work, but you are required to undertake it.” The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org .