上月，我们分享了斯坦福大学一项研究的结果。该研究发现，所谓的“受AI影响”职业中，入门级就业远远落后于其他领域。如今，慕尼黑CESifo的经济学研究人员发表的一篇新工作论文却得出了相反的结论，直言“没有任何证据表明，近期大学毕业生在绝对或相对水平上遭遇了显著而广泛的替代，或招聘有所减少”。在《AI对近期大学毕业生就业的早期影响》一文中，研究人员罗伯特·费尔利和简·吴表示，他们决定聚焦近期毕业生，是因为“劳动力需求的变化可能首先表现为招聘减少”。他们认为，随着AI已经足够先进，至少能够完成许多入门级办公室工作中“相对标准化的任务”，企业可能会减少简单岗位的新人招聘，而不是解雇经验更丰富、任职更久的员工。
Last month, we shared word of a Stanford study that found entry-level employment in so-called "AI-impacted" occupations lagging well behind that in other fields. Now, a new working paper from economics researchers at Munich's CESifo finds the opposite, arguing point blank that "there is no evidence of any significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring of recent college graduates in absolute or relative levels." In "The Early Impacts of AI on Employment Among Recent College Graduates," researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu said they decided to focus on recent graduates "because changes in labor demand may first appear through reductions in hiring." As AI gets good enough to at least perform the "relatively standardized tasks" in many entry-level office jobs, they argue, firms could reduce new hiring for simpler roles rather than laying off more experienced long-term employees.
有一些理由让人相信，与一两年前毕业的人相比，2026届求职毕业生可能更容易受到AI替代的威胁。CESifo研究人员援引了美国人口普查局近期的一项调查，称“用AI替代大量员工任务”的企业数量大幅增加；他们还指出，过去12个月里，每名员工的AI支出以及ChatGPT Enterprise的令牌使用量均普遍增长。
There's some reason to believe 2026's graduating job seekers might be more at risk of AI displacement than those graduating just a year or two prior. The CESifo researchers point to a recent sharp increase in the number of firms "replacing a large number of employee tasks with AI" in a Census survey, as well as broad increases in AI spending per employee and ChatGPT Enterprise token use in the last 12 months.