通常,我们每季度都会向大家更新美国电网的运行情况,因为电网数据能很好地反映新趋势,并平滑一些逐月波动。遗憾的是,上个月的数据发布时我不在办公室,因此本次将提供一次滞后七个月的2026年趋势更新。
Normally, we try to update you quarterly on what's going on with the US electric grid since it provides a nice view of developing trends and smooths out some month-to-month randomness. Unfortunately, I was out of the office when last month's data was released, so this will be a seven-month update on 2026 trends.
最突出的一点是,能源使用量仍在持续上升,尽管增速并没有有关数据中心的新闻标题让人以为的那么快。除数据中心外,电气化程度不断提高——例如电动汽车和热泵的普及——正将能源需求转移到电网。尽管如此,与去年同期相比,用电量仅上升了2%。而在去年同期,需求较上一年上升了3%。
The top line item is that energy use is continuing to rise, albeit not as quickly as headlines about data centers might lead people to believe. Beyond data centers, there's a growing electrification—things like EVs and heat pumps—that is shifting energy demands onto the grid. Despite all of this, electricity use has risen by only 2 percent compared to the same period last year. At this time the previous year, demand had risen by 3 percent compared to the year prior.
造成这种情况的部分原因可能是效率持续提升;正是这些改进在21世纪初的大部分时间里让电力需求保持稳定。另一部分原因可能是越来越多的数据中心开始自行发电,因此相关需求不会体现在电网数据中。迄今为止,需求增长还远未达到末日般的水平。
Some of this may be due to continued improvements in efficiency, which had largely kept electricity demand stable throughout the early 2000s. And some of it may be because more data centers are generating their own power so that demand doesn't show up on the grid. So far, the growth in demand hasn't reached apocalyptic levels.