卫报气候新闻部 据气候科学家估计，到2月，超级厄尔尼诺带来的额外高温预计将导致超过45万人死亡。
Guardian Climate Desk More than 450,000 people are projected to die from the additional heat brought by the super El Niño by February, according to estimates by climate scientists.
这一死亡人数尚未计入因气候危机已导致气温上升而提前死亡的人。高温致死现象将遍及全球，从印度尼西亚到印度，从尼日利亚到美国。厄尔尼诺还会带来干旱、野火和洪灾，预计将造成更多死亡。
The toll is on top of the early deaths resulting from temperatures already driven up by the climate crisis. It will strike across the globe, from Indonesia to India, and Nigeria to the United States. Many further deaths are expected from the droughts, wildfires, and flooding that El Niños bring.
研究人员已按地区对高温死亡人数进行了估算，因此称这些预测明确了可以在哪些地方采取保护措施，从而挽救生命。
The heat deaths have been estimated at regional level, and the researchers said the projections therefore identified where measures to protect people could be put in place and save lives.
此类措施可以包括加强高温预报、设立供人们避暑降温的降温中心、在高温最严重时增加医疗机构人员配置，以及为户外工作人员提供保障。
Such actions could include better heat forecasts, cooling centers where people can shelter, increased staffing for medical facilities at the hottest times and protections for outdoor workers.
目前正在推高全球气温的这场厄尔尼诺现象于周一刷新了该现象有记录以来的最高温度纪录，比预计峰值提前了数月。此次高温比以往历次事件强烈得多，科学家称其“令人震撼”，达到“哥斯拉级别”。厄尔尼诺是一种自然气候现象，但全球升温可能使其加剧。1877年至1878年的一次严重厄尔尼诺曾因干旱和饥荒导致逾5000万人死亡。
The El Niño currently heating up the planet burst through the highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon on Monday, several months before its expected peak. The heat is so much greater than previous events that scientists have called it “mind-blowing” and “Godzilla-level.” El Niños are natural climate events but may be made worse by global heating A major El Niño in 1877-1878 led to more than 50 million deaths due to drought and famine.
“45.1万人这个估计数字大得令人麻木，但其中每一个数字都是一位父母、一个孩子、一位祖父母、一位邻居，都是去上班、照顾家人、经营各自生活的普通人。”气候影响实验室共同创始人、芝加哥大学教授兼该报告共同作者迈克尔·格林斯通说。死亡人数估计涵盖2026年6月至2027年2月，因为部分高温死亡事件可能已经发生，而2027年2月是当前气温预测的截止时间。但高温死亡人数居高不下的情况预计将持续到2027年6月或7月。
“The estimate of 451,000 people is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbours, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives,” said Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a professor at the University of Chicago, who co-authored the report The estimate of deaths is for the period June 2026—as some heat deaths will have already occurred—to February 2027, which is when current temperature forecasts end. But elevated levels of heat deaths are expected to continue until June or July 2027.
在未来六个月内，受影响最严重的国家将是热带地区的尼日利亚、印度尼西亚、苏丹、印度和巴西。美国也位列受影响最严重的前20个国家之列，预计将有3,500人因高温而死亡。更广泛地说，非洲的萨赫勒地区和东南亚也受到了严重影响。
most affected countries in the next six months are the tropical nations of Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil. The US is in the top 20 most affected nations, with 3,500 projected additional heat deaths. More broadly, the Sahel region in Africa and Southeast Asia are heavily affected.
研究人员表示，厄尔尼诺现象实际上是“我们未来气候状况的预兆”——它使气温上升到了气候危机预计会在20年后才会出现的水平。
The El Niño is also a “postcard from our future,” the researchers said, pushing up temperatures to the level the climate crisis is projected to deliver in 20 years.
该报告的合著者、加州大学伯克利分校的塔玛·卡尔顿（Tamma Carleton）指出：“加强应急响应并更有针对性地开展救援工作，可以在今年挽救许多人的生命。但20年后，当今天的极端高温成为新的常态时，我们不能再一直处于紧急状态……我们现在就需要行动起来，设计、部署并评估那些能够在未来拯救生命的措施。”这些预测是通过经过同行评审的方法得出的，这些方法分析了全球24,378个地区每月气温与因高温导致的死亡人数之间的关系，并结合了厄尔尼诺现象在未来几个月内会导致气温进一步升高的预测结果。基准数据是1996年至2025年间各月份的平均死亡人数。
“Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year,” said report co-author Tamma Carleton at the University of California, Berkeley. “But 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency… We need to mobilize now to design, deploy, and evaluate the tools that will save lives in the years ahead.” The projections were made using peer-reviewed methods that track the month-by-month relationship between temperature and additional heat deaths in 24,378 regions across the world. This was combined with the forecasts for higher temperatures due to El Niño in the months ahead. The baseline was the number of heat deaths in the average month from 1996 to 2025.
“人们已经能够预测农作物何时会遭受冲击，并提前发出警告，”格林斯通说。“这份新报告为预测一个更加重要的结果打开了大门——我认为这是最重要的结果——即死亡。”该报告将提交给同行评审期刊，但格林斯通表示，鉴于当前形势紧急，“如果将其搁置不予发布，将是不负责任的。”厄尔尼诺现象也将冲击食品供应。世界粮食计划署曾于8月警告称，其影响可能使约5000万人陷入严重饥饿，并推高价格。1877年至1878年发生的一次重大厄尔尼诺现象导致逾5000万人因干旱和饥荒而死亡，印度、巴西和中国均受到严重影响。
“People have been able to forecast when there’s going to be shocks to crops, and give advance warning of that,” said Greenstone. “This new report is opening the door to being able to do it for an even more important outcome—I would say the most important outcome—which is death.” The report will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal, but Greenstone said that, given the urgency of the situation, “it would have been irresponsible to sit on it.” Food supplies will also be hit by El Niño, with the World Food Programme warning in August that its impacts were likely to push about 50 million people into acute hunger and drive prices up. A major El Niño in 1877-1878 led to more than 50 million deaths due to drought and famine, with India, Brazil, and China severely affected.
伦敦帝国理工学院教授弗里德里克·奥托周一表示：“本次［当前的厄尔尼诺现象］是气候系统的一次巨大能量重新分配，而且十分危险，因为它正发生在一个因人类活动而大幅变暖的气候系统之上。”
Friederike Otto, a professor at Imperial College London, told on Monday: “The [current El Niño] event is a huge redistribution of energy in the climate system and is dangerous, because it is unfolding on top of a much warmer, human-influenced climate system.”
“所以，他继续说道：“世界许多地方将出现前所未有的极端高温，并对健康、粮食安全和水资源紧张造成相应后果。厄尔尼诺现象来来去去，但只要我们继续燃烧化石燃料，它就会发生在一个日益炎热的基准气候之上，使各社区更难应对其后果。”
“So, he continued, “in many places around the world we will see never-before-experienced heat extremes, with all their consequences on health, food security and water stress. El Niño comes and goes, but as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels, it occurs on an increasingly hotter baseline, making it much more difficult for communities to deal with the consequences.”