大西洋和太平洋的飓风季都异常活跃——但原因截然不同。截至目前，太平洋已形成18个飓风，共有41个命名风暴，这两个数字在季节的这个时间点都异常偏高。厄尔尼诺现象来袭，这意味着什么？大西洋的情况则截然相反。
It's been an extreme hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans — but for vastly different reasons. The Pacific Ocean has seen 18 hurricanes so far and 41 named storms overall, which are unusually high numbers for this point in the season. Climate El Niño is here, so what does it mean? Atlantic Ocean is experiencing the exact opposite.
截至9月25日，大西洋在100多年来首次未形成任何成熟飓风。仅形成了7个命名风暴，且均为强度较弱的热带风暴。
For the first time in over 100 years, no full-blown hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic as of September 25. Only seven named storms have formed, all of which were less-intense tropical storms.
“这是两个盆地的截然不同的故事，”普林斯顿大学地球科学教授加布里埃尔·韦基表示。“太平洋：异常活跃。北大西洋：异常不活跃。”科学家称，这很可能是由强烈的厄尔尼诺气候模式导致的。这种每隔几年出现一次的自然模式，往往会抑制大西洋的飓风，同时助长太平洋的风暴。夏威夷是承受这一转变冲击的地区之一。
"It's a tale of two basins," says Gabriel Vecchi, a professor of geosciences at Princeton University. "The Pacific: incredibly active. The North Atlantic: incredibly inactive." Scientists say this is likely due to a powerful El Niño climate pattern. This natural pattern, which occurs every few years, tends to suppress hurricanes in the Atlantic while fueling more storms in the Pacific. Hawaii is one place bearing the brunt of this shift.
根据国家飓风中心的预测，飓风“诺洛”预计将在本周末给夏威夷带来暴雨和潜在洪水。这是今年威胁该群岛的第三个飓风，此前8月有飓风“拉拉”，9月初有飓风“洛厄尔”。
Hurricane Nolo is expected to bring heavy rainfall and potential flooding to Hawaii this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center It's the third hurricane to threaten the islands this year, following Hurricane Lala in August and Hurricane Lowell in early September.
厄尔尼诺的作用 为什么今年如此反常？气候科学家指向今年打破纪录的厄尔尼诺现象。
The role of El Niño Why is it such an unusual year? Climate scientists point to this year's record-breaking El Niño.
当赤道附近的太平洋水温升高时，就会出现厄尔尼诺现象。较暖的海水为飓风提供能量，推动形成更大、更强的风暴。这意味着一旦风暴形成，它更有可能达到飓风强度。《短波》节目：“超级”厄尔尼诺来袭，你该有何预期？
El Niño happens when water temperatures increase in the Pacific Ocean, near the equator. That warmer water provides fuel for hurricanes, driving bigger and more powerful storms. That means when a storm forms, it's more likely to reach hurricane strength. Short Wave 'Super' El Niño is coming. What should you expect?
它还影响全球的天气模式。在北大西洋，厄尔尼诺倾向于增加风切变，通过撕裂风暴使飓风更难形成。
It also affects weather patterns around the globe. In the North Atlantic, El Niño tends to increase wind shear, making it more difficult for hurricanes to form by tearing storms apart.
今年，厄尔尼诺现象比往常更强烈。尽管这一现象要到今年晚些时候才会达到顶峰，但太平洋水温已经创下历史新高。
This year, El Niño is more intense than usual. Pacific water temperatures are already hitting record highs, even though the phenomenon won't reach its peak until later this year.
“我们正走向几乎可以确定是有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺现象，”迈阿密大学高级研究员布莱恩·麦克诺尔迪说。“它在太平洋和大西洋都超出了预期，”他说。一旦风暴形成，较暖的水温也会助长其更快速地增强。
"We are headed toward what will almost certainly be the strongest El Niño on record," says Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami. "It has exceeded expectations," in both the Pacific and the Atlantic, he says. Warmer waters can also fuel more rapid intensification once storms form.
周二，在墨西哥太平洋沿岸，一场风暴在不到24小时内从热带风暴增强为五级飓风。
On Tuesday, off Mexico's Pacific coast, strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours.
韦基将波洛的增强描述为“惊人”。这种快速增强会使风暴更具危险性，部分原因是它限制了人们准备的时间。气候变化扮演了什么角色？
Vecchi describes the intensification of Polo as "astounding." Such rapid intensification can make storms more dangerous, in part by limiting the time people have to prepare. What is the role of climate change?
科学家们仍在努力弄清为什么有些厄尔尼诺事件比其他的更强。一些近期研究表明，气候变化可能正在驱动更强的厄尔尼诺事件。
Scientists are still trying to understand why some El Niño events are stronger than others. Some recent studies suggest climate change may be driving stronger El Niño events.
依然存在近乎原始的珊瑚礁。它们是珊瑚修复的蓝图。韦基说，那方面的科学仍不确定，但厄尔尼诺的潜在影响已被充分理解。
There are still nearly pristine coral reefs. They're a blueprint for coral restoration That science remains uncertain, Vecchi says, but the potential impacts of El Niño are well-understood.
厄尔尼诺现象通常会升高全球气温，并可能使世界某些地区变得更湿润，而另一些地区则更干燥。
El Niño generally raises temperatures globally and can make some areas around the world wetter and others drier.
在不久的将来，奥尔巴尼大学大气科学教授保罗·朗迪表示，他正在关注更多风暴影响夏威夷，以及中美洲的干旱和火灾。
In the immediate future, Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, says he's watching for more storms to impact Hawaii along with droughts and fires in Central America.
厄尔尼诺现象还可能给美国西南部部分地区带来更湿润的冬季，那里一直遭受干旱困扰。但这也可能增加洪水风险。
El Niño could also bring a wetter winter for parts of the Southwestern U.S., where drought has persisted But this could also increase the risk of floods.
这些厄尔尼诺的影响叠加在由人为气候变化驱动的变暖之上，后者已经在增加全球极端天气的可能性。
These impacts from El Niño come on top of warming driven by human-caused climate change, which is already increasing the likelihood of extreme weather around the world.
“气候变化始终处于我们在海洋、大气中所经历的几乎所有现象的背景之中，”麦克诺尔迪说。“所以它改变了天平的倾斜。”
"You can think of climate change as always acting in the background of basically everything we're experiencing in the ocean, in the atmosphere," McNoldy says. "So it tips the scales."