香港最新的人口统计数据显示，劳动力短缺问题在短期内有所缓解，但同时也带来了严重的警告：预计到2028年劳动力缺口将从两年前的18万人减少至13万人。然而，劳动力总量本身仍将从去年的347万人下降到2028年的340万人，这意味着每年劳动力将减少约2万人。如果取消这些引进外来劳动力和人才的计划，劳动力总量将进一步降至321万人，劳动力缺口将扩大至30万人。香港虽然正在努力应对人口结构变化带来的挑战，但根本无法扭转这一趋势。问题主要有三个方面：首先，人口老龄化问题日益严重。预计在未来三年内，25至34岁的劳动人口将减少6.4万人。体力劳动者的平均年龄已达54岁，技术工人的平均年龄为50岁。这两类劳动者合计占劳动力短缺总量的约40%；目前香港急需4.8万至5.3万名技术工人和3.6万至4.1万名体力劳动者。航空、建筑、医疗保健、创新以及城市运营等领域——这些支撑香港经济发展的关键行业——受到的影响最为显著。
Hong Kong’s latest manpower projection offers some short-term relief, but includes a big warning. The shortfall expected by 2028 has narrowed to 130,000, down from the 180,000 forecast two years ago. Yet the workforce itself is set to shrink from 3.47 million last year to 3.4 million in 2028. That is roughly 20,000 fewer workers each year, even after counting imported labour and talent. Without those import schemes, the labour force would fall to 3.21 million and the gap would widen to 300,000. The city is holding back a demographic tide, not turning it. The problems are threefold. The first is ageing. Workers aged 25 to 34 are projected to decline by 64,000 over three years. The median age of manual labourers has reached 54, and that of skilled technical workers is 50. Together, these two groups account for about 40 per cent of the projected shortage, with 48,000 to 53,000 technicians and 36,000 to 41,000 manual workers needed. Aviation, construction, healthcare, innovation and city operations – the sectors underpinning Hong Kong’s ambitions – remain the most exposed.
其次，劳动力供需严重不匹配。失业率已上升至3.8%，有超过15万人处于失业状态，同时许多职位仍然空缺。劳工及福利局研究部门的负责人罗仲福（Roy Chan Kwok-fai）估计，约有3万至4万名失业者需要接受再培训才能重新就业。长期失业（即失业时间超过六个月）的比例已从疫情前的五分之一上升至近三分之一。由于中式餐厅的关闭，许多资深厨师失去了工作，这凸显了在快速变化的经济环境中，某些技能如何变得“无处施展”的问题。最后，教育与就业之间的脱节也加剧了劳动力短缺问题。
The second is job mismatch. Unemployment has edged up to 3.8 per cent, with more than 150,000 people out of work, even as vacancies go unfilled. Roy Chan Kwok-fai, head of the Labour and Welfare Bureau’s research unit, estimates that 30,000 to 40,000 jobless people cannot find work without retraining. Long-term unemployment, lasting six months or more, has risen from a fifth of the jobless before the pandemic to nearly a third. Veteran chefs displaced by closures of Chinese restaurants illustrate how skills can become stranded in a changing economy.
第三个问题是人工智能（AI）对文职工作人员的影响：目前文职岗位的过剩数量达到了2.5万至3万个。适合应届毕业生的初级职位数量相比2022年减少了约60%；同时，约有7万名年龄在45至54岁之间、没有接受过高等教育的文职人员处于就业困境中。预计应届毕业生和中年文职人员将承受最大的就业压力。这些问题需要政府采取更加精准、周密的应对措施。
The third is artificial intelligence (AI), affecting clerical support staff who face a surplus of 25,000 to 30,000. Entry-level vacancies suitable for recent graduates have fallen by around 60 per cent compared with 2022, while approximately 70,000 clerical workers aged between 45 and 54 without post-secondary education are considered vulnerable. Fresh graduates and middle-aged clerical staff are expected to bear the brunt. These problems demand a more precise, well-crafted government response.
职业培训必须针对雇主的实际需求来进行。员工培训委员会和职业培训机构应与短缺行业的雇主共同设计培训课程，并将培训资金与就业机会挂钩（而非仅仅依据学员的注册人数来分配资金）。如果培训补贴能够足够弥补工人的收入损失，那么中年工人就有机会从文职岗位转向技术岗位。
Retraining must be targeted and driven by what employers need. The Employees Retraining Board and vocational institutions should design courses jointly with employers in shortage sectors and tie funding to job placement rather than enrolment. Training allowances generous enough to replace part of lost income would help middle-aged workers make the leap from clerical desks to technical trades.
还有许多未被充分利用的劳动力资源（如女性、老年工人及退休人员）亟需重新进入劳动力市场。政府应提供更多补贴性的育儿服务、灵活的工作安排，并鼓励雇主继续雇佣年龄超过60岁的员工，从而扩大劳动力规模，同时避免增加住房压力。
More underused groups willing and ready to work need to be brought back into the workforce. Women, older workers and retirees represent a significant reserve. More subsidised childcare, flexible working arrangements and incentives for employers to keep staff beyond age 60 would enlarge the labour pool without adding to housing pressure.
未来，经济增长的动力应更多地依赖于生产效率的提升。建筑、物流和餐饮行业的自动化进程，以及模块化建筑技术的快速推广，将有助于减少对稀缺体力劳动力的依赖。如果能够合理利用人工智能技术，确实可以缓解劳动力短缺的问题。
Productivity must replace headcount as the engine of growth. Automation in construction, logistics and catering, alongside faster adoption of modular building methods, would help reduce dependence on scarce manual labour. Used well, AI can relieve shortages.
此外，人才引进工作也需要更加精准、有针对性。近年来，该城市吸引了超过18万名工人和专业人士，但当地主要劳工组织指出，绿色航运和伊斯兰金融等专业领域几乎无人申请。官员们表示，他们将在明年之前更新涵盖60个职业的人才引进计划。
And talent importation needs to be more targeted to be effective. More than 180,000 workers and professionals have arrived in recent years, above earlier projections. Yet the city’s main labour federation notes that niche fields such as green shipping and Islamic finance attracted almost no applicants. Officials have said they will update the Talent List, which covers 60 professions, by next year.
那篇评估报告应当基于数据，并且需要定期发布；对于那些在两年内离职的员工，必须对其离职情况进行跟踪记录（即他们的离职行为是否对整体统计数据产生了影响）。
That review should be data-driven and regular. Retention must be tracked; talent that departs within two years flatters the statistics.
此外，必须确保当地工人能够从中受益。新的青年就业计划是一个值得肯定的举措。根据该计划，政府将为10,000名首次就业的年轻人提供为期六个月的月薪补贴。工资数据显示，外来务工人员的工资并未对当地劳动者的就业造成冲击；但只有通过对招聘比例和工资水平的透明监督，才能增强公众的信心。
Furthermore, local workers must be seen to benefit. The new youth employment programme is a welcome step. Under the scheme, the authorities will subsidise part of the monthly pay for six months for 10,000 additional jobs for first-time entrants. Wage data suggests imports have not undercut locals, but transparent monitoring of hiring ratios and wages would sustain public confidence.
技能培养、员工参与度、生产效率以及合理的移民政策必须协同发挥作用。劳动力市场的缺口虽然有所缩小，但这只是暂时的缓解措施；政府应当明智地利用这一机会。——摘自《南华早报》社论
Skills, participation, productivity and precise immigration policy must be made to work together. The narrowed labour gap is a reprieve; the government should use it wisely. By SCMP Editorial