据摩根士丹利分析，甲骨文公司（Oracle Corp.）向新墨西哥州一家大型数据中心的开发商发出的“不可抗力”通知，正在重新引发人们对相关贷款和租赁协议的关注；这一举措也加剧了那些希望通过债务市场为人工智能基础设施建设筹集资金的公司所面临的挑战。
By Caleb Mutua Oracle Corp.’s force majeure notice to the developer of a massive New Mexico data center is putting loan and lease documents under fresh scrutiny and adding to the challenges facing companies looking to tap debt markets to finance the AI buildout, according to Morgan Stanley.
分析师林赛·泰勒（Lindsay Tyler）和维什瓦斯·帕特卡尔（Vishwas Patkar）在周五发布的报告中指出：“在那些建设仍存在较大风险、或租户信用质量较低的交易中，受到的影响可能会最为严重；相反，那些建设已经接近完成、或建设风险较低的资产应该能更好地抵御这些负面影响。”那些试图筹集数十亿美元用于人工智能基础设施建设的公司，已经面临着不断上升的借贷成本、激烈的市场竞争（这导致风险溢价上升），以及全美范围内对数据中心的普遍反对情绪。分析师们认为，甲骨文为应对新墨西哥州数据中心建设可能出现的延误而采取的这一措施，进一步增加了本就紧张的市场中的合同不确定性。
“We would expect the greatest sensitivity in transactions with substantial remaining construction or completion risk and those backed by weaker-quality tenants,” analysts including Lindsay Tyler and Vishwas Patkar wrote in a note Friday. “Conversely, assets close to stabilization or those with limited construction risk exposure should be better insulated from these concerns.” Firms looking to raise billions to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure are already grappling with rising borrowing costs, heavy supply that’s pressuring risk premiums, and a groundswell of opposition to data centers across the US. Oracle’s move to shield itself from costs if the New Mexico facility is delayed has added contractual uncertainty to a market already under strain, according to the analysts.
他们写道：“一个关键问题是：这仅仅是一次个案纠纷，还是为其他租户提供了可以援引的先例？如果其他优质数据中心运营商也采取类似行动，那么对市场的影响将会更加深远，届时就需要重新评估现有的合同保护条款了。”该通知在周四引发了数据中心债券价格的急剧上涨；同时，为甲骨文的债务提供五年期违约保护的成本也创下了历史新高。
“A key question is whether this remains an idiosyncratic dispute or establishes a precedent that other tenants could seek to invoke,” they wrote. “Similar action by another high-quality hyperscaler would likely carry greater significance for the market and warrant a broader reassessment of contractual protections.” The force majeure notice sparked a sharp widening in data center bonds Thursday, while the cost of protecting Oracle’s debt against default for five years surged to a record.
分析师们指出，由于大量数据中心建设融资都是基于与优质租户签订的长期租赁协议进行的，因此这一通知使得人们开始更加关注这些协议中包含的保护条款。
Given that significant amounts of construction financing have been backed by long-term leases with high-grade tenants, the notice is drawing closer scrutiny to the protections embedded in those deals, the analysts said.
他们写道：“甲骨文提前采取这一行动，明显超出了原定的交付计划；这引发了人们的疑问：这是否意味着该公司在履行租赁协议方面采取了更为强硬的态度？如果客户施加压力，该公司是否可能会调整其计算服务合同（即计算服务的条款和条件）？”
Oracle “taking this step well ahead of scheduled delivery represents an escalation, raising questions about whether it signals a more assertive posture toward lease commitments – and potentially compute contracts if customer pressures emerge,” they wrote.
此外，由于银行和私人融资在甲骨文AI项目中的主导作用，投资者对支持该项目的具体合同内容了解甚少（即投资者的“透明度”非常有限）。
It also underscores the “limited visibility” that investors have into contracts supporting the AI buildout, given the prevalence of bank and private financing.
尽管如此，摩根士丹利并不认为甲骨文的这一举措是该公司为了逃避债务义务而采取的策略。不过，鉴于甲骨文的持续高现金支出、较高的调整后杠杆率以及持续的信用评级风险，该银行仍对甲骨文的财务状况持谨慎态度。
Still, Morgan Stanley doesn’t see Oracle’s move as a means for the hyperscaler to avoid its debt obligations. Nonetheless, the bank remain cautious on the issuer given its cash burn, elevated adjusted leverage and ongoing ratings risk.