由 Eva Brendel 和 Marilen Martin 撰写：位于德国杜伊斯堡的船舶技术与运输系统开发中心（Development Center for Ship Technology and Transport Systems）的走廊里陈列着各种模型船——这些小型船舶原型未来可能会在欧洲最繁忙的水道——莱茵河上投入使用。
By Eva Brendel and Marilen Martin The halls of the Development Center for Ship Technology and Transport Systems in Duisburg, Germany are lined with model ships, small-scale prototypes of vessels that may end up working on Europe’s busiest waterway, the Rhine.
今年，该中心的研究人员正致力于研究如何应对莱茵河面临的新挑战。本周，莱茵河的水位降至历史最低点，加剧了由欧洲夏季干旱引发的航运危机。随着气候变化导致极端天气事件愈发频繁，依赖这条河流运输的产业不得不做出调整。
This year, DST’s researchers are focusing on how to cope with new constraints on the river. Water levels on the Rhine hit a record low this week, prolonging a shipping crisis caused by a summer of droughts across Europe. As climate change makes extreme weather conditions like this more likely, industries that relied on the river are having to adapt.
“莱茵河突然变成了一个充满不确定性的因素，”DST 的研究员 Cyril Alias 说道。他的同事们正在研发配备小型螺旋桨及侧装轮子的船舶，以帮助船舶在较浅的水域中航行。“这真是令人难以接受。”莱茵河是连接欧洲工业核心地区与全球市场的重要交通要道，沿岸分布着许多大型化工企业、钢铁厂和炼油厂，这些企业包括 Covestro AG、BASF SE、Shell plc 和 Bayer 等。
“Suddenly the Rhine becomes a source of uncertainty,” said DST researcher Cyril Alias, whose colleagues are working on vessels with smaller propellers and side-mounted wheels to help navigate shallower waters. “It’s crazy.” The Rhine is a vital transportation artery connecting factories in Europe’s industrial heartland with global markets. Along the Rhine are major chemical plants, steelworks and refineries operated by companies including Covestro AG, BASF SE, Shell plc and Bayer.
目前，某些河段的水位已降至自 19 世纪 80 年代以来的最低水平，企业们不得不面对这样一个现实：能否持续依赖莱茵河进行运输已不再是一件理所当然的事。
Now, with water levels at some points the lowest in records stretching back to the 1880s, companies are confronting the possibility that reliable access to the Rhine can no longer be taken for granted.
长达数月的航运中断迫使化工企业削减产量，甚至不得不对部分产品宣布“不可抗力”（即因外部因素导致的生产中断）。这进一步凸显了那些在以往干旱期间投资于抗灾能力的公司与那些未进行此类投资的公司在应对危机时的巨大差距。欧洲化工行业早已面临需求疲软、能源成本持续高涨以及来自中国等低成本生产国的竞争压力。
The months-long disruption has forced chemical producers to curb output or declare force majeure on some products, exposing a widening divide between companies that invested in resilience after previous droughts and those that did not. Europe’s chemical industry is already grappling with weak demand, persistently high energy costs and growing competition from lower-cost producers in China and elsewhere.
“化工行业已经在为生存而挣扎，因此我理解为什么许多企业没有投入必要的资金来保护自己，”咨询公司 Roland Berger 的合伙人 Ruirui Zong-Rühe 说。
“The chemical industry is already fighting for survival, so I understand why many companies haven’t made the necessary investments to protect themselves,” said Ruirui Zong-Rühe, a partner at consultancy Roland Berger.
莱茵河水位下降正在推高运输成本，因为需要更多驳船来运输相同数量的货物。运费现在比夏季初高出约五倍。包括朗盛集团和壳牌在内的公司已将部分货运转至铁路和公路，尽管这些替代方案也很昂贵。
Low water levels on the Rhine are pushing up transport costs, as more barges are needed to move the same amount of cargo. Freight costs are now around five times higher than at the start of the summer. Companies, including Lanxess AG and Shell, have shifted some shipments to rail and road, although these alternatives are also expensive.
这次中断展示了工业如何适应变化。2018年一场严重干旱导致航运几近停摆后，一些公司投资建造了专门设计用于航行浅水莱茵河的船只，以及替代性的铁路和公路连接。这些投资使它们今年能够保持货物流动，即使传统驳船举步维艰。
The disruption has shown how industry can adapt. After a severe drought brought shipping to a near standstill in 2018, some companies invested in vessels designed specifically to navigate a shallower Rhine, as well as alternative rail and road links. Those investments are allowing them to keep goods moving this year even as conventional barges struggle.
例如，化工巨头巴斯夫与物流公司HGK集团合作，开发了一代新型浅水船舶，能够在浅水条件下比传统船只承载多得多的货物。巴斯夫同时也在加强其路德维希港基地的替代运输连接，表示不预期今年的低水位会造成任何“急性、重大的经济损失”。
Chemical giant BASF, for example, worked with logistics company HGK Group to develop a new generation of low-water vessel capable of carrying significantly more cargo in shallow conditions than traditional ships. BASF, which is also strengthening alternative transport links at its Ludwigshafen complex, said it doesn’t expect any “acute, major economic damage” from this year’s low water.
“此次中断暴露了在2018年严重低水位事件后投资增强韧性的公司与未投资公司之间的差距，”宗-吕厄说。
“The disruption has exposed a divide between companies that invested in resilience after the severe low-water episode of 2018 and those that did not,” Zong-Rühe said.
整个行业可能难以快速适应。德国仅有13艘低吃水船舶，其中9艘属于HGK。更换更广泛的船队需要时间，因为船只通常寿命约为50年，且该行业高度分散，许多船只由小型、通常是家族经营的运营商拥有。
The industry as a whole may struggle to rapidly adapt. Of just 13 low-draft vessels available in Germany, nine belong to HGK. Replacing the wider fleet will take time because ships typically have a lifespan of around 50 years and the sector is highly fragmented, with many vessels owned by small, often family-run operators.
“如果我们想要实现船队现代化，必须特别是让中小企业和个体船东能够投资下一代船舶，”HGK首席执行官施特芬·鲍尔说，他呼吁政府提供支持。
“If we want to modernize the fleet, we must enable small and medium-sized enterprises and individual shipowners in particular to invest in the next generation of vessels,” said Steffen Bauer, chief executive officer of HGK, who called for government support.
这一问题不太可能随季节更替而消失。据荷兰国际集团（ING Groep NV）运输与物流高级行业经济学家里科·卢曼（Rico Luman）称，低水位已持续两个多月，并可能延续至10月甚至更久。预测显示，作为莱茵河关键瓶颈路段的考布（Kaub）驳船通航水位，本周末可能维持在接近历史低位水平。该水位计并不测量河流深度，但能帮助运营商确定货船可安全装载的货量。
The problem is unlikely to disappear with the changing season. Low water has persisted for over two months and could stretch well into October, according to Rico Luman, senior sector economist for transport and logistics at ING Groep NV. Forecasts show the barge clearance level at Kaub, a key Rhine choke point, could stay near record low levels this weekend. The gauge doesn’t measure river depth, but helps operators determine how much cargo vessels can safely carry.
卢曼表示，企业已开始尽最大努力规避低水位限制，但历史低位仍可能导致新的减产。
Companies have already started to work around the low-water constraints as much as possible, Luman said, but the record lows could still lead to new production cuts.
尽管企业正为充满不确定性的未来投资，且技术有助于其适应变化，但DST的阿利亚斯（Alias）警告称，企业不大可能规避所有风险。
While companies are investing for an uncertain future, and technology can help them adapt, DST’s Alias warned that it’s unlikely they can mitigate all the risks.
“无论你准备得多充分，最终还是会受损，”他说，“你可以缓冲冲击，但无法在不付出代价的情况下完全避免。”
“You can prepare as much as you want, you still lose,” he said. “You can cushion the impact, but you can’t avoid it without consequences.”