关键信息:根据 Brendan Murray 的报道,Kuehne+Nagel International AG 预计其在为大型科技公司及其数据中心提供物流服务方面的业务至少还能保持两位数的增长,这一业务正随着人工智能技术的快速发展而迅速扩张。
By Brendan Murray Kuehne+Nagel International AG sees at least three years of double-digit growth in the burgeoning business of logistics services catering to big technology companies and the data centers they’re building to handle the boom in artificial intelligence.
这家瑞士货运巨头本周早些时候宣布与 Amazon.com Inc. 签订了一份为期七年的合作协议,该协议使得 Kuehne+Nagel 的股价攀升至两年来的最高水平。
The Swiss freight giant earlier this week announced a seven-year deal to handle such work for Amazon.com Inc., sending the company’s stock to a two-year high.
首席执行官 Stefan Paul 在伦敦接受采访时指出,Kuehne+Nagel 的客户中包括七家著名的科技巨头(即所谓的“Magnificent Seven”公司)。这些企业不仅需要基本的运输服务,还希望获得端到端的供应链解决方案,包括供应商管理、海关清关以及现场交付等一站式服务。
In an interview this week in London, Chief Executive Officer Stefan Paul said Kuehne+Nagel customers include six of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech firms. Hyperscalers and others are looking for end-to-end supply chain services beyond basic transportation, including vendor management, customs clearance and onsite delivery.
Paul 表示:“我们已经明确了未来三年的市场需求预测;对于 2027 年、2028 年和 2029 年的业务规模和增长前景,我们已经有明确的规划。预计未来几年业务仍将继续保持两位数的增长。”
“What we see is there is demand forecast secured for the next three years,” Paul said. “So 2027, 2028 and 2029, we already know somehow how much they foresee in terms of equipment and growth is concerned” and “there is still double-digit growth to be expected,” he said.
虽然人工智能技术带来了许多未来主义的想象(如“无形云服务”、机器人以及人类生产力的飞跃),但实际上,实现这些技术目标仍需要大量的运输车辆、仓储设施以及繁琐的文书工作。
The AI frenzy conjures futuristic images of an invisible cloud, robots and quantum leaps in human productivity. But in the meantime it’s going require a lot of vehicles, warehousing and paperwork to muster the equipment used to build out the infrastructure.
分析师认为,正是这种需求推动了中国的出口产业持续强劲发展,同时也帮助美国经济在关税壁垒的冲击下保持了稳定。这也是 Kuehne+Nagel 股价今年上涨超过 30% 的重要原因之一。
That demand is among the reasons, analysts say, that China’s export juggernaut is stronger than ever and the US economy is weathering the headwinds of tariff barriers. It’s also partly why Kuehne+Nagel’s shares are up more than 30% this year.
Kuehne+Nagel 总部位于苏黎世以西约 32 公里(20 英里)的 Schindellegi 村庄。该公司目前与 Amazon 的合作额已达数亿美元,但这一数字有望在未来进一步增长至数十亿美元。
Based in the sleepy village of Schindellegi, about 20 miles (32 kilometers) from Zurich, Kuehne+Nagel has an existing relationship with Amazon amounting to a couple hundred million dollars, but that revenue could grow into the billions.
Paul 说:“Amazon 给我们带来了更多的业务机会,而我们则致力于提供最优质的服务。”
“They give us more business, and we ensure the best quality possible,” Paul said.
公司与亚马逊新合作伙伴关系中的财务安排,核心是一个基于量级门槛的激励模式——并辅以库恩纳格尔股票的看涨期权作为强化。据投资者关系负责人Christopher Combé透露,期权的经济价值通过一种对冲工具锁定,这将使库恩纳格尔每季度付出“数百万美元”的成本。
The financial arrangement in the company’s new Amazon partnership revolves around an incentive model based on volume thresholds — reinforced with call options on Kuehne+Nagel shares. The economic value of the options is fixed through a hedging instrument which will cost Kuehne+Nagel “few million” dollars per quarter, according to Christopher Combé, head of investor relations.
“我们的风险敞口仅限于对冲费用,”Combé表示。“但随着业务量进来并达到特定里程碑,该工具的部分份额将归属,亚马逊可以选择获取股份或现金。”Combé补充称,对亚马逊而言,最大价值将低于库恩纳格尔交易前市值的3%。
“Our exposure is limited to the hedging expense,” Combé said. “But as the volume comes in and hits certain milestones, portions of that instrument vest, and Amazon has a choice to take shares or cash.” Combé added that the maximum value for Amazon will be less than 3% of Kuehne+Nagel’s pre-deal market capitalization.
自上月公司第三代主要所有者Klaus-Michael Kuehne去世以来,Paul的战略受到更密切的审视。Kuehne将这家运输服务商打造成为全球最大的海运和空运货代之一,并成为德国首富。他的股份将转移至Kuehne基金会。
Paul’s strategy is under closer scrutiny since the death last month of the company’s third-generation majority owner, Klaus-Michael Kuehne, who built the transport provider into one of the world’s biggest ocean- and air-freight forwarders and became Germany’s wealthiest person. His holdings shift to the Kuehne Foundation.
“基本上,基金会将接管Kuehne先生作为大股东的角色,”Paul在采访中表示,此前几小时公司刚宣布与中国电动汽车电池龙头制造商宁德时代建立合作伙伴关系。“对于库恩纳格尔而言,预计不会有任何变化。”
“Basically, the foundation will take over the role of Mr. Kuehne as the majority shareholder,” Paul said in the interview, hours after the company announced a partnership with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd., China’s dominant maker of batteries for electric vehicles. “For Kuehne+Nagel, there is no change to be expected.” warders which facilitate the shipping process for cargo owners, disruption and uncertainty have been both a headache and boon.
对于协助货主完成运输流程的货代而言,动荡与不确定性既是头痛之源,也是意外之财。
Global merchandise trade has stayed resilient through US President Donald Trump’s tariff regime over the past 18 months, along with wars in Ukraine and Iran, largely because of demand for equipment needed to build and maintain data centers.
在过去18个月里,全球商品贸易在美国总统特朗普的关税政策、乌克兰和伊朗战争的冲击下依然保持韧性,这主要归因于建设和维护数据中心所需设备的需求。
The monthly CPB World Trade Monitor released Friday showed an index of merchandise volumes rose to a record in July, with Chinese exports among the biggest drivers.
周五发布的月度CPB世界贸易监测显示,7月商品贸易量指数升至历史新高,中国出口是主要驱动力之一。
According to Allianz Trade, export volumes of AI-enabling goods reached $3.8 trillion in 2025, doubling over the past decade and accounting for about 15% of global commerce. That share has increased to 20% this year, based on figures cited by Shanella Rajanayagam, a senior trade economist with HSBC.
根据安联贸易(Allianz Trade)的数据,2025年,那些能够应用人工智能技术的商品的出口额达到了3.8万亿美元,比过去十年增长了了一倍,占全球贸易总额的约15%。根据汇丰银行(HSBC)高级贸易经济学家Shanella Rajanayagam提供的数据,这一比例在今年上升到了20%。
The race to boost computing capacity for AI is particularly intense between the US and China, though other markets in Asia and the Middle East also have ambitious expansion plans, the Federal Reserve noted in a report this year.
美联储在今年发布的一份报告中指出,美国和中国在提升人工智能计算能力方面的竞争尤为激烈;亚洲和中东的其他市场也制定了雄心勃勃的扩张计划。
Rajanayagam estimated that 80% of Taiwan’s total exports in 2026, for instance, are tied to the AI value chain.
例如,Rajanayagam估计,2026年台湾出口总额的80%都与人工智能产业链相关。
Kuehne+Nagel isn’t alone jumping into data center logistics. Rivals including DHL Group are, too.
Kuehne+Nagel并非唯一一家进入数据中心物流领域的公司,DHL集团等竞争对手也在积极布局这一领域。DHL Express的首席执行官John Pearson在本月的一次会议上表示:“数据中心物流已经成为新的增长点。”他补充说:“在今年之前,很少有人知道‘超大规模数据中心运营商’(hyperscaler)是什么;但现在这个词几乎出现在每封邮件中,成为人们日常讨论的话题。因此我们正在这个领域加速发展。”彭博智能(Bloomberg Intelligence)的高级物流分析师Lee Klaskow指出,由于人工智能驱动的数据中心投资,工业需求成为货运市场的“亮点”,有助于缓解通货膨胀压力以及高利率对消费者购买力的负面影响。
“The new growth diamond is data center logistics,” John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, said at a conference this month. Before this year, “the number of people that knew what a hyperscaler was, was not very many. Now it’s on every email, it’s in every day. So we’re running fast on that.” Lee Klaskow, a senior logistics analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, said industrial demand has been a “bright spot” for freight markets thanks to AI data center investment, helping mitigate inflation pressures and higher interest rates that are weighing on consumer purchases.
Klaskow认为,人工智能的蓬勃发展“推动了航空货运和平板卡车运输费用的上涨”,并且“这一趋势预计将持续到2027年”,为运输公司带来持续的增长动力。
The AI boom “has helped fuel the strength in air freight and flatbed trucking rates” and “should remain a tailwind into 2027” for transport companies, Klaskow said.