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人工智能安全辩论令人困惑。以下是我们对不同派别的指南The AI safety debate is confusing. Here's our guide to the different factions

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左上角顺时针方向依次为:前谷歌人工智能研究科学家蒂姆尼特·格布鲁(Timnit Gebru)、Anthropic联合创始人兼首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)、白宫人工智能与加密货币事务负责人大卫·萨克斯(David Sacks)、史蒂夫·班农(Steve Bannon)、计算机科学家兼认知心理学家杰弗里·辛顿(Geoffrey Hinton)、研究员李飞飞(Fei-Fei Li)。

Clockwise from top left: former Google AI research scientist Timnit Gebru, Anthropic Co-founder and CEO Dario Amodei, White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks, Steve Bannon, computer scientist and cognitive psychologist Geoffrey Hinton, researcher Fei-Fei Li. AFP via Getty Images/Collage by Emily Bogle/NPR hide caption toggle caption The debate over the potential benefits and safety risks of accelerating artificial intelligence development reached a crescendo this month, as supporters and critics of the technology clashed over warnings that increasingly powerful AI could pose existential risks to humanity.

法新社经盖蒂图片社提供/艾米莉·博格尔(Emily Bogle)拼贴/NPR 隐藏字幕 切换字幕 本月,关于加速人工智能发展可能带来的益处与安全风险的争论达到高潮,技术的支持者与批评者就日益强大的AI可能对人类构成生存风险的警告展开了激烈交锋。

On September 8, Jacob Coxon, a researcher-turned-whistleblower, publicly resigned from major AI firm Anthropic after a previous stint at OpenAI, accusing the companies of "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives." Coxon's claims supercharged an ongoing debate over the potential damage AI could wreak on society and prompted Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and other AI CEOs to call for a slowdown in AI development Over the past two months, companies including OpenAI and Anthropic disclosed multiple incidents in which their AI agents accessed the internet when they weren't supposed to and carried out unapproved activities. In OpenAI's case, swarms of agents worked together to hack the open-source software platform Hugging Face and OpenAI itself, without alerting humans.

9月8日,从研究人员转变为吹哨人的雅各布·考克森(Jacob Coxon)在曾于OpenAI任职后,公开辞去了主要人工智能公司Anthropic的职务,指责这些公司“正径直冲向自我改进的超级智能,并以我们的生命为赌注”。考克森的指控进一步加剧了关于AI可能对人类社会造成潜在破坏的持续辩论,并促使Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪及其他AI公司首席执行官呼吁放缓AI发展步伐。过去两个月内,包括OpenAI和Anthropic在内的多家公司披露了多起事件,其AI智能体在未经授权的情况下访问互联网并执行了未获批准的活动。在OpenAI的案例中,大量智能体协同合作,在人类未察觉的情况下,入侵了开源软件平台Hugging Face以及OpenAI自身。

On September 8, Jacob Coxon, a researcher-turned-whistleblower, publicly resigned from major AI firm Anthropic after a previous stint at OpenAI, accusing the companies of "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives." Coxon's claims supercharged an ongoing debate over the potential damage AI could wreak on society and prompted Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and other AI CEOs to call for a slowdown in AI development Over the past two months, companies including OpenAI and Anthropic disclosed multiple incidents in which their AI agents accessed the internet when they weren't supposed to and carried out unapproved activities. In OpenAI's case, swarms of agents worked together to hack the open-source software platform Hugging Face and OpenAI itself, without alerting humans. The debate over the safety of AI and whether and how it should be regulated is not a simple clash between two opposing sides. There are multiple factions with a variety of goals and assessments about the technology's promise, dangers and how it should be governed. Here are the main arguments shaping that debate.

关于AI安全性以及是否应对其进行监管、如何监管的辩论,并非简单的两派对立。存在多个派别,它们对技术的潜力、危险及其治理方式有着不同的目标和评估。以下是塑造该辩论的主要论点。有效加速主义与技术右翼那些对人工智能持激进乐观世界观的人通常被称为有效加速主义者(有时简称为e/acc),这一术语反映了他们相信人工智能应被快速推进的观点。

Effective accelerationists and the tech right Those who have an aggressively optimistic worldview of AI are often referred to as effective accelerationists (sometimes shortened to e/acc) – a term reflecting their belief that AI should be rapidly advanced.

该阵营的成员对人工智能及其未来给社会带来的益处表现出强烈的乐观态度。他们认为,这项技术能够推动医学进步、提升经济生产力、提高生活水平,并自动化危险或令人不快的工作。为了实现这一目标,他们主张应加速而非限制人工智能的发展。

People belonging to the faction are emphatically optimistic about AI and its future benefits to society. They believe that the technology can propel medical advancements, boost economic productivity, increase living standards, and automate dangerous or undesirable work. To achieve this, they argue that AI development should be accelerated, not restricted.

有效加速主义者的意识形态与“技术右翼”存在重叠,因为双方都全心全意地相信应加速人工智能的开发与部署,并淡化批评者对安全和安保问题的担忧。

Effective accelerationists' ideology overlaps with that of the "tech right", in that both camps wholeheartedly believe in accelerating AI development and deployment and minimize critics' concerns over safety and security.

然而,技术右翼采取更具民族主义色彩的立场,倡导美国在全球人工智能竞赛中保持主导地位。与有效加速主义者类似,他们认为人工智能的研究和部署不应受到监管的束缚,并辩称监管可能会减缓创新,或使中国等敌对政府有可能在人工智能竞赛中超越美国。

However, the tech right takes a more nationalistic stance, championing U.S. dominance in the global AI race. Like effective accelerationists, they believe that AI research and deployment should be unencumbered by regulation, arguing that could slow innovation or allow adversarial governments such as China to overtake the U.S. in the AI race.

风险投资家大卫·萨克斯(David Sacks)是人工智能安全辩论中主要的加速主义声音之一,他曾担任特朗普总统的人工智能和加密货币顾问。

Venture capitalist David Sacks is one of the leading accelerationist voices in the AI safety debate and was President Trump's AI and cryptocurrency advisor.

伊恩·莫尔(Ian Maule)/法新社/盖蒂图片社 技术右翼的理念由前白宫人工智能和加密货币顾问大卫·萨克斯等人代表,他的观点在特朗普政府中仍具有影响力。其他重要人物包括风险投资家马克·安德森(Marc Andreessen)和本·霍洛维茨(Ben Horowitz),以及OpenAI总裁兼联合创始人格雷格·布罗克曼(Greg Brockman)。这三人共同创立了“引领未来”超级政治行动委员会(Leading the Future super PAC),以支持亲人工智能的政治候选人,并反对那些倡导加强监管的候选人。

Ian Maule/AFP via Getty Images The tech right's philosophy is represented by figures such as former White House AI and cryptocurrency advisor David Sacks, whose views remain influential with the Trump administration. Other significant players include venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, and OpenAI president and co-founder Greg Brockman. The three founded the Leading the Future super PAC to support pro-AI political candidates and campaign against those who advocate for regulation. Andreessen also penned a 2023 widely-read blog post titled "Why AI Will Save the World," in which he claimed that fears of AI triggering mass unemployment are overstated. He argued that previous waves of automation ultimately created more jobs and economic activity than they eliminated, and the fears of existential risk are overblown.

安德森还撰写了一篇2023年广为流传的博客文章,标题为《为什么AI将拯救世界》,他在文中声称,关于AI引发大规模失业的担忧被夸大了。他认为,以往的自动化浪潮最终创造的就业岗位和经济活动比其消除的更多,而对生存风险的担忧则被过度渲染。

Recently, Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, whose chips are used by most AI companies, has emerged as one of the industry's leading voices pushing back against calls for a slowdown and urging a light regulatory approach.

最近,英伟达CEO黄仁勋——其芯片被大多数AI公司使用——已成为行业内反对放缓呼吁、主张采取宽松监管方式的主要声音之一。

Populist right AI has exposed an ideological split within President Trump's political coalition. While Trump and his advisers overwhelmingly favor accelerating AI, parts of his MAGA base believe the powerful corporations he has aligned himself with could undermine the U.S. economy.

民粹主义右翼的AI立场暴露了特朗普总统政治联盟内部的意识形态分歧。虽然特朗普及其顾问绝大多数倾向于加速AI发展,但其部分“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)基本盘认为,他结盟的那些强大企业可能会损害美国经济。

Figures including former Trump strategist Steve Bannon and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson have been vocal about potential job losses, the tech industry's political power, child safety and threats to traditional social and religious values.

包括前特朗普策略师史蒂夫·班农和前福克斯新闻主持人塔克·卡尔森在内的人物,已就潜在失业、科技行业的政治权力、儿童安全以及对传统社会和宗教价值观的威胁公开表达担忧。

This month, Bannon formed an unlikely partnership with independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a socialist, to call for significant restrictions on AI development, government oversight and corporate accountability at the Pro-Human Assembly conference in Washington, D.C.

本月,班农与佛蒙特州独立参议员、社会主义者伯尼·桑德斯结成了意想不到的合作伙伴关系,在华盛顿特区的“亲人类大会”上共同呼吁对AI发展实施重大限制、加强政府监管和企业问责。

This month, Bannon formed an unlikely partnership with independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a socialist, to call for significant restrictions on AI development, government oversight and corporate accountability at the Pro-Human Assembly conference in Washington, D.C. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon has sharply broken with the Trump administration around AI policy.

前特朗普顾问史蒂夫·班农在AI政策问题上已与特朗普政府彻底决裂。

Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images Still, the two have differing stances on what any of those measures should look like. Sanders called for an immediate pause on AI development until clear safety rules are established by scientists, a permanent ban on the development of artificial "superintelligence" (AI systems that are more intelligent than humans in all domains), and an international treaty with China in an effort to avoid an AI arms race. Bannon, meanwhile, argued for slowing the pace of AI development, the formation of a national regulatory organization and for cutting off China from U.S. AI technology.

Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images 尽管如此,两人对于这些措施的具体形式持有不同立场。桑德斯呼吁在科学家制定出明确的安全规则之前,立即暂停人工智能的开发;永久禁止开发人工智能“超级智能”(即在所有领域都比人类更聪明的人工智能系统);并与中国签署国际条约,以避免人工智能军备竞赛。与此同时,班农则主张放缓人工智能的发展步伐,组建国家监管机构,并切断中国获取美国人工智能技术的途径。

Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images Still, the two have differing stances on what any of those measures should look like. Sanders called for an immediate pause on AI development until clear safety rules are established by scientists, a permanent ban on the development of artificial "superintelligence" (AI systems that are more intelligent than humans in all domains), and an international treaty with China in an effort to avoid an AI arms race. Bannon, meanwhile, argued for slowing the pace of AI development, the formation of a national regulatory organization and for cutting off China from U.S. AI technology.

“那么,我们为什么要让中国共产党牵着鼻子走呢?哦,我们必须这样做,否则中国就会赢,”班农在华盛顿举行的活动上发表讲话时说道。“我们现在就应该将人工智能生态系统的方方面面与中国共产党隔离开来。我们应该切断与他们的联系。”他们主要担心的是人工智能快速发展带来的潜在风险。他们的担忧集中在可能出现的灾难性或生存性后果上,例如人类可能死于自主机器之手。

"So why are we letting the Chinese Communist Party drive us? Oh, we have to do this or China wins," said Bannon in his speech at the event in Washington. "We should quarantine now every aspect of the ecosystem of artificial intelligence away from the Chinese Communist Party today. We should cut them off." are primarily concerned with the potential risks of the rapid advancement of AI. Their worries center on the possibility of catastrophic or existential outcomes, such as the death of humanity at the hands of autonomous machines.

“安全主义”社区的知名成员包括杰弗里·辛顿(Geoffrey Hinton),他因在深度学习领域的开创性工作推动了人工智能现代时代的到来,而被普遍称为“人工智能教父”。近年来,曾在谷歌工作过的辛顿发出了一系列关于人工智能相关生存风险的警告,特别是当人工智能模型超越人类智能并实现自主化时。

High-profile members of the safetyist community include Geoffrey Hinton who is commonly referred to as the "Godfather of AI" because of his pioneering work in deep learning that helped launch the modern era of AI. In recent years, Hinton, who previously worked at Google, has issued a series of warnings about existential risks associated with AI, particularly if an AI model surpasses human intelligence and becomes autonomous.

另一位直言不讳的人工智能安全主义者是丹尼尔·科科泰洛(Daniel Kokotajlo),他曾是OpenAI的研究员,也是去年发表的论文《AI 2027》的合著者之一。该论文探讨了超级智能人工智能如何可能在2030年代中期导致人类灭绝。有效利他主义者有效利他主义者(常简称为“EA”)通常致力于最大化人类长期福祉。该运动最初侧重于通过物质手段减少全球贫困。但近年来,许多EA思想家将关注点转向了由先进人工智能及其他潜在社会规模灾难(如核战争、气候变化和流行病)引发的生存风险。他们尤其担忧这些风险对未来世代的影响。来自EA阵营的人士优先考虑人工智能安全、对齐——即确保人工智能系统以反映人类价值观并符合安全规则的方式运行的科学——以及降低灾难性结果发生的可能性。

Another vocal AI safetyist is Daniel Kokotajlo, a former researcher at OpenAI and co-author of AI 2027, a paper published last year that discusses how super-intelligent AI could lead to human extinction by the mid-2030s. Effective altruists Effective altruists (often shortened to "EA") generally believe in maximizing humanity's long-term welfare. The movement originally focused on material ways to reduce global poverty. But more recently, many EA thinkers have focused their concerns on the possibility of existential risks from advanced AI and other potential societal-scale disasters such as nuclear war, climate change and pandemics. They particularly worry about the consequences for future generations. People from the EA camp prioritize AI safety, alignment – which is the science of making sure AI systems behave in a way that is reflective of human values and in line with safety rules – and reducing the probability of catastrophic outcomes.

EA与安全主义者之间的关键区别在于,EA通常为人工智能安全研究和风险缓解提供资金,而安全主义者则是从事人工智能安全工作并公开呼吁监管的研究者和倡导者。

Effective altruists Effective altruists (often shortened to "EA") generally believe in maximizing humanity's long-term welfare. The movement originally focused on material ways to reduce global poverty. But more recently, many EA thinkers have focused their concerns on the possibility of existential risks from advanced AI and other potential societal-scale disasters such as nuclear war, climate change and pandemics. They particularly worry about the consequences for future generations. People from the EA camp prioritize AI safety, alignment – which is the science of making sure AI systems behave in a way that is reflective of human values and in line with safety rules – and reducing the probability of catastrophic outcomes.

其他人工智能派别常以轻蔑的口吻将有效利他主义者描述为所谓的“AI末日论者”。自科克森从Anthropic辞职以来,EA也成为特朗普政府批评的焦点。

The key difference between EAs and safetyists is that EAs generally provide funding for AI safety research and risk mitigation, whereas safetyists are researchers and advocates undertaking AI safety work and publicly calling for regulation.

美国国防部本月的一条帖子称:“美国主义,而非有效利他主义。美国将继续保持人工智能主导地位!”

The key difference between EAs and safetyists is that EAs generally provide funding for AI safety research and risk mitigation, whereas safetyists are researchers and advocates undertaking AI safety work and publicly calling for regulation.

Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代与有效利他主义者有关联,并主张对人工智能实施更严格的监管。

Other AI factions often derisively describe effective altruists as so-called "AI Doomers." EA has also become a focus of criticism from the Trump administration since Coxon's resignation from Anthropic.

Benjamin Fanjoy/Getty Images 有效利他主义(EA)运动中的知名人士包括机器智能研究所(MIRI)的联合创始人埃利泽·尤德科夫斯基(Eliezer Yudkowsky),该研究所专注于通过数学方法确保先进人工智能系统的安全性。他还是《哈利·波特》同人小说的作者,这些作品有助于推广与EA相关的理念。美国企业家兼慈善家霍尔登·卡诺夫斯基(Holden Karnofsky)创立了Coefficient Giving(前身为Open Philanthropy),该组织为EA使命的核心事业提供资金,包括人工智能和生物安全。Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代(Dario Amodei)被认为与有效利他主义立场一致。卡诺夫斯基也在Anthropic工作,他的妻子丹妮拉·阿莫代(Daniela Amodei)是Anthropic的联合创始人,也是首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代的妹妹。

"Americanism, not effective altruism. The United States will continue to be AI DOMINANT!" said one Defense Department post this month. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is associated with the effective altruists and argues for stronger regulations on AI. Benjamin Fanjoy/Getty Images Well-known people in the EA movement include Eliezer Yudkowsky, co-founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), which focuses on mathematical approaches to making advanced AI systems safe. He is also the author of Harry Potter fan fiction that helped popularize ideas associated with EA. Holden Karnofsky, an American entrepreneur and philanthropist, founded Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy), an organization that funds causes central to the EA mission, including AI and biosecurity. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is considered to be aligned with effective altruism. Karnofsky also works at Anthropic and is married to Daniela Amodei, who is a co-founder of Anthropic and the sister of Dario Amodei, the CEO.

EA运动的另一位知名支持者是大型加密货币交易所FTX的创始人山姆·班克曼-弗里德(Sam Bankman-Fried)。2023年,他因滥用客户和投资者资金被判犯有七项欺诈和共谋罪,目前正在服25年刑期。人工智能伦理学派认为,社会应关注人工智能已经造成的危害,而不是假设性的生存风险。一些支持者认为,强调来自假设的未来超级智能的生存威胁,可能会分散人们对当今人工智能所带来的更直接危害和问责问题的注意力。

Another high-profile supporter of the EA movement is Sam Bankman-Fried, who founded major cryptocurrency exchange FTX. In 2023, he was convicted of seven counts of fraud and conspiracy related to the misuse of customer and investor funds and is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence AI ethics The AI ethics camp argues that society should focus on the harms AI is already causing, rather than on hypothetical existential risks. Some proponents contend that emphasizing existential threats from a hypothetical future superintelligence can serve as a distraction from the more immediate harms and accountability issues surrounding AI today.

人工智能伦理学家的担忧包括:由于训练数据的内容,人工智能系统可能会产生偏见,例如人工智能人脸识别或求职申请系统可能会延续现有的社会偏见。他们还担心人工智能如何被用于剥削工人、实现大规模监控,以及数据中心的环境成本、自主武器,以及权力向科技公司的集中。

AI ethicists' concerns include how AI systems can be biased due to the content of their training data, for example, the ways in which AI facial recognition or job application systems might perpetuate existing societal biases. They are also concerned with how AI could be used to exploit workers and to enable mass surveillance, as well as about the environmental costs of data centers, autonomous weapons, and the concentration of power among technology companies.

在人工智能伦理领域,蒂姆尼特·格布鲁(Timnit Gebru)是一位备受瞩目的代表人物。她是一位计算机科学家,曾担任谷歌伦理人工智能团队的联合负责人。由于她撰写的一篇研究论文引发了与公司之间的争议(该论文揭露了大型语言模型(LLMs)存在的问题,例如这些模型倾向于生成有害或具有误导性的内容),她于2020年离开了谷歌。

A notable voice of the AI ethics faction is Timnit Gebru, a computer scientist and former co-lead of Google's Ethical AI team. Gebru left the company in 2020 because of a dispute with the company over a research paper she wrote exposing problems with large language models (LLMs), including their tendency to generate harmful or misleading language.

“人工智能是一种普通技术”派别属于这一派别的人士既反对将人工智能视为乌托邦式的理想化存在,也反对将其视为导致灾难性的负面现象。他们认为,人工智能本质上是一种强大但普通的科技,其作用类似于互联网或电力。他们主张应重点关注对人工智能具体应用方式的监管以及这些应用可能带来的危害,而不是将其视为前所未有的威胁或通向超级智能的必然途径。

AI as a normal technology People belonging to the "AI as a Normal Technology" group reject both the utopian and dystopian narratives about AI. Instead, this faction sees AI as a powerful but ultimately normal technology, comparable to the internet or electricity. They believe the focus should be on understanding and regulating specific applications and harms instead of treating AI as an unprecedented threat or as a path to inevitable superintelligence.

费菲·李(Fei-Fei Li)也是一位计算机科学家,同时担任斯坦福大学以人类为中心的人工智能研究所的联合主任。她及其团队认为,人工智能其实与其他普通技术并无本质区别。

Fei-Fei Li is a computer scientist and co-director of the Stanford Human-Centered AI Institute. She and others in her faction argue that AI is more like a typical technology than others in the field believe.

与这一观点相关的重要人物还包括费菲·李——她因创建了 ImageNet 数据集而闻名。ImageNet 是一个包含海量图像的数据集,为大型神经网络的训练提供了重要支持,从而推动了人工智能领域的多项重大进展。

Big Event Media/Getty Images Notable people associated with this worldview include Fei-Fei Li, a computer scientist and co-director of the Stanford Human-Centered AI Institute. Li is famous for creating ImageNet, a vastly large dataset of images which provided the training data for large neural networks, which led to several major developments in AI.

凯蒂·麦克奎(Katie McQue)的报道得到了 Tarbell 人工智能新闻中心的支持,该中心获得了 Coefficient Giving 的资助。不过,Tarbell 和 Coefficient 都不对她的报道内容进行任何编辑或指导。

Katie McQue's reporting is supported by the Tarbell Center for AI Journalism, which is a grantee of Coefficient Giving. Neither Tarbell nor Coefficient have any editorial input into her work.

NPR(美国国家公共电台)既不提供也不接受任何形式的资金用于报道或采访活动。任何提出此类要求的人都不是 NPR 的员工,也不代表 NPR 的立场。

NPR does not offer or accept money for coverage or interviews. Anyone who makes such an offer or request is not an NPR employee and does not represent NPR.