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未来已至:千禧一代与Z世代占多数对美国意味着什么?The future is here: What will a Millennial-Gen Z majority mean for America?

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大家都知道千禧一代和Z世代是美国社会年轻、生于互联网时代的面孔。但千禧一代作为当地咖啡店兼职咖啡师的刻板印象已过时:千禧一代现在30至45岁,最年长的Z世代也已步入30岁。这些美国人现在更有可能是你的膝关节外科医生,而不是你的咖啡师。几十年来,美国政治一直运行在婴儿潮一代在冷战中成长起来建立的二元框架之上:共产主义对资本主义,红队对蓝队。那个框架适合一个阵营分明的世界。但在2026年,自由市场和互联网时代给了我们前所未有的选择权,从流媒体平台到番茄酱品牌,应有尽有。唯独政治除外。如果有一件事我们该了解千禧一代和Z世代的,那就是他们讨厌被整齐地塞进框框里。这解释了为什么现在人们在消费习惯和趋势上表现出的品牌忠诚度比以往低得多。这也解释了为什么千禧一代和Z世代自认政治独立人士的比例远高于年长美国人。盖洛普1月的数据显示,多数Z世代(56%)和千禧一代(54%)自认是政治独立人士。这一趋势大概率将持续。千禧一代和Z世代合计已构成美国选民中最大的投票群体。预计到2028年,Z世代和千禧一代将占选民半数以上,并将在未来20年继续主导美国政治。这一群体经历的只有政治僵局、失效的移民系统和持续失控的国家债务。简单说,这些选民在华盛顿见到的只有无效治理,已准备好迎接不同的东西。

Everyone knows millennials and Gen Z as the young, internet-native faces of American society. But the stereotype of millennials as the part-time barista working at the local coffee shop is out of date: Millennials are now 30 to 45 years old, and the oldest Gen Zers are turning 30. These Americans are far more likely to be your knee surgeon today than they are your barista. For decades, American politics has run on a binary that Baby Boomers built growing up amid the Cold War: communism versus capitalism, Team Red versus Team Blue. That framework fit a world with two clear sides. It fits a lot less neatly in 2026, when the free market and the internet age have handed us more choice than ever, from streaming platforms to ketchup brands. Except when it comes to politics. If there's anything we should know about millennials and Gen Z, it is that they hate being neatly fit into a box. This explains why people nowadays display significantly less brand loyalty than before when looking at consumer habits and trends. And this also explains why millennials and Gen Z identify as political independents at far higher rates than older Americans. Data conducted by Gallup in January discovered that the majority of both Gen Z (56 percent) and millennials (54 percent) identify as political independents. This trend is likely to continue. Millennials and Gen Z combined already make up the largest voting bloc of the U.S. electorate. By 2028, Gen Z and millennials are projected to make up more than half of the electorate, and they will continue to dominate American politics for the next 20 years. This demographic has experienced nothing but political gridlock, a failing immigration system and a national debt that continues to spiral out of control. Put simply, these voters have seen nothing but ineffective governance in Washington and are ready for something different. This year's election marks the first time where we're seeing serious, viable independent candidates emerge to meet this growing demand driven by younger voters. In fact, this year is seeing one of the largest surges of independent candidates in recent memory, with dozens of candidates vying for public office across the country. They offer genuine, nonpartisan, commonsense solutions that these voters are yearning for. Millennials and Gen Z are not the future of American politics. They are the present. And this also means that independents are now a major, indisputable force that decides elections and shapes policy. From comprehensive immigration policy that secures our borders to AI/tech guardrails for children, there's real potential for meaningful change that this demographic shift can usher in. On immigration, younger voters reject the false choice between a wall and blanket amnesty; they want enforcement that actually works paired with legal pathways that exist, not a standoff that's been stuck in place for 30 years. On AI and kids' online safety, they're equally unimpressed by regulate-everything and regulate-nothing. Having grown up as the first generations raised inside these platforms, they want guardrails that protect children without strangling the innovation that built the tools they use every day. We should be encouraged that these generations are already thinking about one of the biggest of problems facing our country: Social Security insolvency. Writing for Fortune in August, Nick Lichtenberg noted that baby boomers are collecting 265 percent of what they paid into Social Security while millennials pick up the tab. Sixty-nine percent of Gen Z and 71 percent of millennials worry the program will run out before they ever see a dime. Neither party has offered a credible fix; both sides seem intent on kicking the can down the road. Independent millennials and Gen Z Americans know that this can is going to eventually hit a wall, and they’ll be left to pick up the mess. You already see Sens. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) backing legislation to raise taxes instead of planning for lasting reform. Millennials and Gen Z can back a solvency plan that is judged on whether it actually works for the generations footing the bill, not based on which party flinches first. Social Security's looming insolvency is just one of these major policy areas where millennials and Gen Z will lead. And consider the possibilities that independents represent because they're not bound by either party's outdated ideologies. Remember, independents are not merely a trend driven by the historical unpopularity of the two parties. It's a new era ushered in by the political maturation of the millennial and Gen Z generations. The future is here, indeed. Adam Brandon served as the president of FreedomWorks for more than a decade. Currently he is senior adviser at the Independent Center and author of "The Exhausted Majority: Building a Home for the Politically Homeless."

今年的大选标志着首次出现严肃且极具竞争力的独立候选人,以回应由年轻选民推动的日益增长的需求。事实上,今年出现了近期记忆中规模最大的独立候选人激增之一,数十名候选人在全国范围内角逐公职。他们提供真正的非党派、常识性解决方案,这正是这些选民所渴望的。千禧一代和Z世代并非美国政治的未来,他们就是当下。这也意味着独立选民如今已成为一股举足轻重、不容置疑的力量,能够决定选举结果并塑造政策。从保障边境安全的全面移民政策,到针对儿童的AI/科技护栏,这种人口结构变化有可能带来真正有意义的变革。在移民问题上,年轻选民拒绝在“墙”和“全面大赦”这两个虚假选项中二选一;他们想要真正行之有效的执法,搭配切实存在的合法途径,而不是僵持不下长达30年的对峙。在AI和儿童网络安全方面,他们对“全监管”和“不监管”同样不屑一顾。作为首批在平台内成长起来的一代,他们想要既能保护儿童、又不扼杀他们每天使用的工具背后创新的护栏。我们应该感到欣慰,这些世代已经开始思考国家面临的最大难题之一:社保破产。Nick Lichtenberg 8月在《财富》杂志撰文指出,婴儿潮一代领取的社保金是其缴纳金额的265%,而账单由千禧一代买单。69%的Z世代和71%的千禧一代担心,在自己领到一分钱之前,该计划就会耗尽资金。两党均未提出可信的修复方案;双方似乎都只想把问题往后推。

Everyone knows millennials and Gen Z as the young, internet-native faces of American society. But the stereotype of millennials as the part-time barista working at the local coffee shop is out of date: Millennials are now 30 to 45 years old, and the oldest Gen Zers are turning 30. These Americans are far more likely to be your knee surgeon today than they are your barista. For decades, American politics has run on a binary that Baby Boomers built growing up amid the Cold War: communism versus capitalism, Team Red versus Team Blue. That framework fit a world with two clear sides. It fits a lot less neatly in 2026, when the free market and the internet age have handed us more choice than ever, from streaming platforms to ketchup brands. Except when it comes to politics. If there's anything we should know about millennials and Gen Z, it is that they hate being neatly fit into a box. This explains why people nowadays display significantly less brand loyalty than before when looking at consumer habits and trends. And this also explains why millennials and Gen Z identify as political independents at far higher rates than older Americans. Data conducted by Gallup in January discovered that the majority of both Gen Z (56 percent) and millennials (54 percent) identify as political independents. This trend is likely to continue. Millennials and Gen Z combined already make up the largest voting bloc of the U.S. electorate. By 2028, Gen Z and millennials are projected to make up more than half of the electorate, and they will continue to dominate American politics for the next 20 years. This demographic has experienced nothing but political gridlock, a failing immigration system and a national debt that continues to spiral out of control. Put simply, these voters have seen nothing but ineffective governance in Washington and are ready for something different. This year's election marks the first time where we're seeing serious, viable independent candidates emerge to meet this growing demand driven by younger voters. In fact, this year is seeing one of the largest surges of independent candidates in recent memory, with dozens of candidates vying for public office across the country. They offer genuine, nonpartisan, commonsense solutions that these voters are yearning for. Millennials and Gen Z are not the future of American politics. They are the present. And this also means that independents are now a major, indisputable force that decides elections and shapes policy. From comprehensive immigration policy that secures our borders to AI/tech guardrails for children, there's real potential for meaningful change that this demographic shift can usher in. On immigration, younger voters reject the false choice between a wall and blanket amnesty; they want enforcement that actually works paired with legal pathways that exist, not a standoff that's been stuck in place for 30 years. On AI and kids' online safety, they're equally unimpressed by regulate-everything and regulate-nothing. Having grown up as the first generations raised inside these platforms, they want guardrails that protect children without strangling the innovation that built the tools they use every day. We should be encouraged that these generations are already thinking about one of the biggest of problems facing our country: Social Security insolvency. Writing for Fortune in August, Nick Lichtenberg noted that baby boomers are collecting 265 percent of what they paid into Social Security while millennials pick up the tab. Sixty-nine percent of Gen Z and 71 percent of millennials worry the program will run out before they ever see a dime. Neither party has offered a credible fix; both sides seem intent on kicking the can down the road. Independent millennials and Gen Z Americans know that this can is going to eventually hit a wall, and they’ll be left to pick up the mess. You already see Sens. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) backing legislation to raise taxes instead of planning for lasting reform. Millennials and Gen Z can back a solvency plan that is judged on whether it actually works for the generations footing the bill, not based on which party flinches first. Social Security's looming insolvency is just one of these major policy areas where millennials and Gen Z will lead. And consider the possibilities that independents represent because they're not bound by either party's outdated ideologies. Remember, independents are not merely a trend driven by the historical unpopularity of the two parties. It's a new era ushered in by the political maturation of the millennial and Gen Z generations. The future is here, indeed. Adam Brandon served as the president of FreedomWorks for more than a decade. Currently he is senior adviser at the Independent Center and author of "The Exhausted Majority: Building a Home for the Politically Homeless."

独立派的千禧一代和Z世代美国人深知,这种拖延战术终将碰壁,而他们将不得不收拾残局。你已经看到参议员伯尼·莫雷诺(俄亥俄州共和党籍)和伊丽莎白·沃伦(马萨诸塞州民主党籍)支持通过加税来解决问题,而不是规划持久的改革。千禧一代和Z世代可以支持一项偿付能力计划,其评判标准应是它是否真正对买单的这一代人有效,而不是看哪个党派先退缩。社会保障体系迫在眉睫的破产危机,只是千禧一代和Z世代将发挥领导作用的众多重大政策领域之一。考虑到独立派所代表的可能性,因为他们不受任何党派过时意识形态的束缚。请记住,独立派不仅仅是由两党历史性的不受欢迎所驱动的一种趋势。这是一个由千禧一代和Z世代政治成熟所开启的新时代。未来确实已经到来。亚当·布兰登曾担任“自由工程”(FreedomWorks)主席十余年。目前,他是独立中心(Independent Center)的高级顾问,也是《精疲力竭的多数:为政治上的无家可归者建立家园》(The Exhausted Majority: Building a Home for the Politically Homeless)一书的作者。

Everyone knows millennials and Gen Z as the young, internet-native faces of American society. But the stereotype of millennials as the part-time barista working at the local coffee shop is out of date: Millennials are now 30 to 45 years old, and the oldest Gen Zers are turning 30. These Americans are far more likely to be your knee surgeon today than they are your barista. For decades, American politics has run on a binary that Baby Boomers built growing up amid the Cold War: communism versus capitalism, Team Red versus Team Blue. That framework fit a world with two clear sides. It fits a lot less neatly in 2026, when the free market and the internet age have handed us more choice than ever, from streaming platforms to ketchup brands. Except when it comes to politics. If there's anything we should know about millennials and Gen Z, it is that they hate being neatly fit into a box. This explains why people nowadays display significantly less brand loyalty than before when looking at consumer habits and trends. And this also explains why millennials and Gen Z identify as political independents at far higher rates than older Americans. Data conducted by Gallup in January discovered that the majority of both Gen Z (56 percent) and millennials (54 percent) identify as political independents. This trend is likely to continue. Millennials and Gen Z combined already make up the largest voting bloc of the U.S. electorate. By 2028, Gen Z and millennials are projected to make up more than half of the electorate, and they will continue to dominate American politics for the next 20 years. This demographic has experienced nothing but political gridlock, a failing immigration system and a national debt that continues to spiral out of control. Put simply, these voters have seen nothing but ineffective governance in Washington and are ready for something different. This year's election marks the first time where we're seeing serious, viable independent candidates emerge to meet this growing demand driven by younger voters. In fact, this year is seeing one of the largest surges of independent candidates in recent memory, with dozens of candidates vying for public office across the country. They offer genuine, nonpartisan, commonsense solutions that these voters are yearning for. Millennials and Gen Z are not the future of American politics. They are the present. And this also means that independents are now a major, indisputable force that decides elections and shapes policy. From comprehensive immigration policy that secures our borders to AI/tech guardrails for children, there's real potential for meaningful change that this demographic shift can usher in. On immigration, younger voters reject the false choice between a wall and blanket amnesty; they want enforcement that actually works paired with legal pathways that exist, not a standoff that's been stuck in place for 30 years. On AI and kids' online safety, they're equally unimpressed by regulate-everything and regulate-nothing. Having grown up as the first generations raised inside these platforms, they want guardrails that protect children without strangling the innovation that built the tools they use every day. We should be encouraged that these generations are already thinking about one of the biggest of problems facing our country: Social Security insolvency. Writing for Fortune in August, Nick Lichtenberg noted that baby boomers are collecting 265 percent of what they paid into Social Security while millennials pick up the tab. Sixty-nine percent of Gen Z and 71 percent of millennials worry the program will run out before they ever see a dime. Neither party has offered a credible fix; both sides seem intent on kicking the can down the road. Independent millennials and Gen Z Americans know that this can is going to eventually hit a wall, and they’ll be left to pick up the mess. You already see Sens. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) backing legislation to raise taxes instead of planning for lasting reform. Millennials and Gen Z can back a solvency plan that is judged on whether it actually works for the generations footing the bill, not based on which party flinches first. Social Security's looming insolvency is just one of these major policy areas where millennials and Gen Z will lead. And consider the possibilities that independents represent because they're not bound by either party's outdated ideologies. Remember, independents are not merely a trend driven by the historical unpopularity of the two parties. It's a new era ushered in by the political maturation of the millennial and Gen Z generations. The future is here, indeed. Adam Brandon served as the president of FreedomWorks for more than a decade. Currently he is senior adviser at the Independent Center and author of "The Exhausted Majority: Building a Home for the Politically Homeless."