特朗普总统告诉选民假装他在选票上。显然他们在听：从海岸到海岸，共和党人正被一股由特朗普不受欢迎所助长的暴力暗流拖入深渊。
President Trump told voters to pretend he's on the ballot. Apparently they're listening: Republicans coast to coast are getting pulled under by a violent undertow fueled by Trump's unpopularity.
为何重要：对共和党来说，情况整年都很糟糕，但这周感觉不同了——仿佛政治环境正在实时瓦解，一个又一个不祥的数据点接踵而至。
Why it matters: It's looked bad for Republicans all year, but this week felt different — like the political environment was disintegrating in real time, one ominous data point after another.
- 对共和党最令人担忧的是，在11月3日大选前，战争结束、通胀降温、利率下降、消费者信心上升、经济乐观情绪高涨，这些几乎没有任何可能同时发生。
• Most worrisome for the GOP, there's virtually no chance the war ends, inflation cools, interest rates fall, consumer confidence rises, and economic optimism surges before the Nov. 3 election.
- 这就是为什么共和党担心这股暗流会危及许多曾被视为稳操胜券的候选人。
• That's why Republicans fear the undertow imperils so many candidates once deemed safe.
大局观：预测选举结果是冒险的生意，但或许是时候拓展想像力，设想五周后共和党会面临多惨烈的局面。
The big picture: Predicting election outcomes is a risky business, but it may be time to expand the imagination of how ugly it could get for Republicans five weeks from now.
先看基调：
Start with mood music:
- 本周，特朗普的不支持率升至60.4%，创下其两个任期内的最差纪录，包括1月6日国会骚乱后的时期。
• This week, Trump's disapproval rating hit 60.4%, the worst mark of his two terms in office, including the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riots.
- 汽油价格超过每加仑4美元，柴油价格达到6.50美元，短期内无缓解迹象。
• Gas prices are over $4 a gallon, diesel has hit $6.50 and no relief is in sight.
- 七个月来，美国与伊朗陷入僵局，看不到明显的退出策略。
• Seven months in, the U.S. is locked in a standoff with Iran with no apparent exit strategy.
- 杂货价格同比仍在上涨。
• Grocery prices are still rising year over year.
- 房贷利率触及7%。
• Grocery prices are still rising year over year.
- 全经济范围内的借贷成本持续攀升。
• Mortgage rates hit 7%.
选举局势：共和党的麻烦无处不在。在参议院争夺战中，曾经铁板一块的德克萨斯州比以往任何时候都更具悬念，佛罗里达州也不远了。阿拉斯加州亦然。北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州看来已失守。缅因州也成问题。
• And the cost of borrowing across the economy continues to climb. Enter the elections: The problems for the GOP are everywhere. In the battle for the Senate, once ruby-red Texas looks more in play than ever, and Florida isn't far behind. Nor is Alaska. North Carolina and Georgia look lost. Maine is problematic.
- 参议院共和党竞选机构正乞求捐赠者再捐890万美元，以捍卫两年前特朗普以两位数优势赢下的三个州——阿拉斯加、爱荷华和俄亥俄——的参议院席位。
• The Senate GOP campaign arm is begging donors for another $8.9 million to defend Senate seats in three states that Trump won by double digits two years ago — Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
- “我们光是让共和党选民回应民调都很困难，”一位全国性共和党民调专家说。“我们在什么时候会认为这些人在选举日不会真正去投票站投票？”
• "We're having problems just getting Republican voters to respond to polls," said one national Republican pollster. "At what point do we think these guys aren't showing up at the actual polls on Election Day?"
仅在密歇根州共和党人看到了夺取一个参议院席位的希望曙光，因为民主党提名人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德被一些人视为过于激进，以至于“把我们的人吓得要死，想去投票”，一位共和党民调专家表示。“但即便如此，在这种环境下，谁知道呢？” • 曾经看起来对民主党来说是渺茫希望的事——通过在有利于共和党的地图上翻转四个共和党把持的席位来控制参议院——现在看起来越来越可行。
Only in Michigan do Republicans see glimmers of hope to pick up a Senate seat because Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed is seen by some as so radical that he has "scared the shit out of our people to want to vote," the GOP pollster said. "But even then, in this environment, who knows?" • What once looked like a long shot for Democrats — taking control of the Senate by flipping four Republican-held seats on a map favoring the GOP — looks increasingly plausible. On the House side,
在众议院方面，库克政治报告周五将15个众议院选区的评级向民主党倾斜。
the Cook Political Report moved 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday. • Democrats need to net just three seats to win control of the chamber.
- 民主党只需净增三个席位即可赢得众议院控制权。
• Republicans are now playing defense deep in red America. GOP-aligned groups are spending money in more than a half-dozen districts that Trump won by at least 15 points in 2024.
- 共和党现在正在深红的美国腹地防守。共和党盟友团体正在十几个特朗普2024年领先至少15个百分点的选区投入资金。
• Republicans are now playing defense deep in red America. GOP-aligned groups are spending money in more than a half-dozen districts that Trump won by at least 15 points in 2024.
- 众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯（共和党，路易斯安那州）对美好的选举之夜会是什么样子降低预期。他告诉Axios，共和党可能获得225个众议院席位。218个席位即为多数。
• House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) is keeping expectations low on what a good Election Night will look like. He told Axios that Republicans might be able to get 225 House seats. It takes 218 to have a majority. What they're saying:
他们的说法：“虽然许多人长期预测民主党将享受一场‘蓝色浪潮’选举，但我认为这更像是‘红色暗流’，它将把许多共和党人拖入水底，并大幅缩减许多其他人的优势，”库克报告创始人兼首席选情分析师查理·库克表示。
"While many have long predicted that Democrats will enjoy a 'blue wave' election, I think of it more as a 'red undertow,' which will pull many Republicans under and significantly trim the margins for many others, said the Cook Report's founder and top elections handicapper Charlie Cook.
- 这隐含地提醒人们，民主党的支持率并不好；只是比共和党好而已。
• That's an implied reminder that Democrats' favorability ratings aren't good; they're just better than Republicans'.
- “在过去90天里，”库克补充道，“特朗普总统的政治地位已从非常不受欢迎转变为有毒，现在则变成了放射性毒素。”
• "Over the last 90 days," Cook added, "President Trump's political standing has transitioned from very unpopular to toxic and now to radioactive."
- 一位参与全国各地竞选的顾问表示：“情况很糟。但最近开始变得更糟，如果继续按这个轨迹发展，后果将非常严重。”
• Said another consultant involved with races across the country: "Things were bad. But they started to go worse recently and if it keeps on this track, it's gonna be real bad."
环境开始堪比顾问表示，这类似于小布什总统任内的第二次中期选举（2006年），当时正值伊拉克战争和卡特里娜飓风救灾不力。共和党失去30个众议院席位和6个参议院席位，从而失去对两院的控制权。
The environment is starting to rival the second midterm election of President George W. Bush's tenure in 2006, the consultant said, amid the Iraq war and the botched response to Hurricane Katrina. Republicans lost control of both chambers after losing 30 House seats and six Senate seats.
- “数据介于‘烂透了’和‘糟透了’之间，”一位为全国多场联邦竞选提供建议的资深共和党人告诉Axios。“现在看起来比2018年更糟。特朗普正走向小布什2006年的水平。”
• "The numbers are somewhere between shitabulous and craptastic," a top Republican advising several federal races across the country told Axios. "It looks worse than 2018 now. Trump is heading to Bush 2006 levels."
现状：最近，越来越多的共和党现任议员正在设法与特朗普划清界限。
State of play: More and more lately, Republican incumbents are running for cover from Trump.
- 在爱荷华州，两名共和党众议员改变立场，支持关于伊朗的战争权力决议。
• In Iowa, two House Republicans have switched their positions to support a war powers resolution on Iran.
- 参议员查克·格拉斯利（他在1980年共和党浪潮中当选参议员）和众议员阿什利·辛森（正在竞选爱荷华州另一个参议院席位）要求限制柴油出口。
• Sen. Chuck Grassley, who rode the 1980 Republican wave to the Senate, and Rep. Ashley Hinson, who's running for Iowa's other Senate seat, are demanding restrictions on diesel exports.
另一方观点：一位特朗普顾问淡化了共和党的震动，指出共和党拥有巨大的资金优势。
The other side: One Trump adviser downplayed the GOP tremors, pointing to the Republicans' massive cash advantage.
- “如果我们执行到位，我们的人出来投票，局面就会完全不同，”该顾问说。“还有超过一个月的时间。”
• "If we execute and our people show up, it's a different ballgame," the adviser said. "There's more than a month to go."
- “看，情况不妙，”该顾问承认。“但这是总统任期中期选举。局势紧张。任何白宫到了这个时间点情况都会很紧张。”
• "Look, things aren't peachy," the adviser acknowledged. "But it's a presidential midterm. Things are hairy. Things always get hairy for any White House at this time."