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蓝领人工智能就业市场正在蓬勃发展。数据中心引发的反弹会让它走向崩溃吗?The blue-collar AI job market is booming. Will data center backlash make it go bust?

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当大多数人谈论人工智能(AI)时,讨论的焦点往往集中在哪些职业最有可能因AI的普及而消失。然而,至少对于某些行业来说,AI的发展反而带来了新的就业机会。

When most people think of and jobs, the conversation often pivots to which occupations are most likely to be obliterated by its arrival. But, at least for some professions, the AI boom has been an employment one too.

AI正在为各种行业创造新的就业岗位,这些行业共同构成了支撑大型企业(如Anthropic Meta、亚马逊、OpenAI等)发展的基础。

AI is creating jobs in a variety of trades that prop up the sprawling ecosystem that powers giants like Anthropic Meta, Amazon, OpenAI, and others.

数据中心的建设与维护,以及整个AI生态系统的运作,都需要新一代的暖通空调(HVAC)技术人员、建筑工人、线路安装工和管道工等专业人才。

construction and maintaining of data centers and the entire AI ecosystem is requiring a new generation of HVAC technicians, construction workers, line workers, and pipefitters.

“这些职业对AI经济的发展越来越重要,”全国性非营利组织“Jobs for the Future”的总裁兼首席执行官玛丽亚·弗林(Maria Flynn)表示。虽然数据中心是备受关注的焦点,但它们实际上只是整个生态系统中的一个小部分;整个系统还需要交通运输系统的升级以及能源网络的现代化改造。“我们看到多种需求正在同时涌现,”弗林补充道。

"These are occupations that are becoming increasingly important to the AI economy," said Maria Flynn, president and CEO of national nonprofit Jobs for the Future. While data centers are the part that gets the publicity, they are only one piece of a much larger puzzle, requiring upgrades in transportation and modernization of the energy grid. "We are seeing major sources of demand that are converging at the same time," Flynn said. The skilled jobs often come with attractive pay. Flynn said an apprentice level technician can take home $40,000 to $60,000, with experienced electricians commanding north of $100,000.

这些技术性较强的岗位通常薪资诱人——例如,初级技术人员的年薪可达4万至6万美元,而经验丰富的电工的年薪则超过10万美元。

Nicole Bachaud, labor economist at online employment marketplace ZipRecruiter, is seeing salaries even higher for more specialized, high skill roles. Bachaud said that the mean minimum salary for data center jobs spiked by 125.1% year-over-year to nearly $208,000.

在线招聘平台ZipRecruiter的劳动经济学家妮可·巴肖德(Nicole Bachaud)指出,某些高技能岗位的薪资涨幅更为显著:数据中心相关岗位的最低年薪同比上升了125.1%,达到了近20.8万美元。

Nicole Bachaud, labor economist at online employment marketplace ZipRecruiter, is seeing salaries even higher for more specialized, high skill roles. Bachaud said that the mean minimum salary for data center jobs spiked by 125.1% year-over-year to nearly $208,000. "This is suggesting that highly specialized, top-tier engineering roles are pulling the overall average up drastically," Bachaud said.

“这表明,那些高度专业化、处于行业顶端的工程岗位正在大幅拉高整个行业的平均薪资水平,”巴肖德分析道。

While many traditional blue-collar workers are seeing a boost, including truckers the biggest blue collar beneficiaries, according to Bachaud's data, are welders and pipefitters. Postings for those jobs are up 164% year over year. While that could be partly the result of a small sample size as more data centers are built, even if each one only needs a few pipefitters, the demand for these roles will increase, she said. The construction demand is also uneven with some places getting in on it more than others. Houston and Birmingham have seen particularly robust growth.

尽管许多传统蓝领工人的收入有所增加,其中也包括卡车司机,但据巴乔德的数据,受益最大的蓝领群体是焊工和管道工。这些岗位的招聘数量同比增长了164%。她说,虽然随着更多数据中心建成,样本量较小可能 partly explains this growth,但即使每座数据中心只需要几名管道工,这些岗位的需求也会增加。

While many traditional blue-collar workers are seeing a boost, including truckers the biggest blue collar beneficiaries, according to Bachaud's data, are welders and pipefitters. Postings for those jobs are up 164% year over year. While that could be partly the result of a small sample size as more data centers are built, even if each one only needs a few pipefitters, the demand for these roles will increase, she said. The construction demand is also uneven with some places getting in on it more than others. Houston and Birmingham have seen particularly robust growth.

扩建需求在各地区的发展也不均衡,有些地方从中获益的程度高于其他地区。休斯敦和伯明翰的增长尤其强劲。

"Places with more land to expand and build, which are often places where building regulations make development easier, cheaper, and faster, will likely be where expansion continues, versus coastal hubs that have higher costs and more regulatory burdens," Bachaud said.

巴乔德说:“有更多土地可供扩建和开发的地区,往往也是建筑法规使开发更容易、更便宜、更快速的地区。与成本更高、监管负担更重的沿海枢纽相比,扩建很可能会继续在这些地区推进。”

"Places with more land to expand and build, which are often places where building regulations make development easier, cheaper, and faster, will likely be where expansion continues, versus coastal hubs that have higher costs and more regulatory burdens," Bachaud said. That means an electrician or pipefitter in Birmingham will probably have more of a buyer's market than one in Boston.

这意味着,与波士顿的电工或管道工相比,伯明翰的电工或管道工可能更有可能处于卖方市场。

None of this surprises Justin Sinkovich, associate professor and associate director of the School of Business and Entrepreneurship at Columbia College Chicago. In his view, the usual AI jobs narrative of displacement is incomplete, with the data center counter-story as one example.

这一切都让芝加哥哥伦比亚学院商业与创业学院副教授、副院长贾斯廷·辛科维奇毫不意外。在他看来,人工智能导致岗位被取代的惯常叙事并不完整,数据中心带来就业增长就是其中一个反向例证。

None of this surprises Justin Sinkovich, associate professor and associate director of the School of Business and Entrepreneurship at Columbia College Chicago. In his view, the usual AI jobs narrative of displacement is incomplete, with the data center counter-story as one example.

尽管人工智能可能使部分工作实现自动化,但其部署依赖基础设施建设,不仅包括数据中心,还包括变电站、冷却系统、供水设施和管道基础设施,而这些设施是人工智能无法自行建造的。

While AI may automate some work its deployment depends on the buildout of infrastructure, including not only data centers but also substations, cooling systems, water, and piping infrastructure, which AI cannot build.

辛科维奇说:“人工智能对劳动市场的积极影响已经显现,市场对制冷和暖通空调工程师、工业自动化技术员以及建筑工人、电工等传统技工的需求有所增加。暖通空调工程师的薪资已经上涨,许多进入数据中心岗位的技术人员也获得了工资溢价。”

"Positive effects on the labor market are already visible, with an increased demand for cooling and HVAC engineers, industrial automation technicians, and traditional trade workers like construction workers and electricians. HVAC-engineering wages have risen, and many technical professionals entering data-center roles are seeing a pay premium," Sinkovich said.

他特别提到路易斯安那州,亚马逊和Meta都在当地拥有大型项目。

He pointed to Louisiana as a specific example, where both Amazon Meta have massive projects.

“亚马逊斥资120亿美元建设了一个新的数据中心,该项目将为当地创造540个新的就业机会,其中包括1700名电工、技术人员和安保人员。Meta公司在路易斯安那州实施的‘Hyperion’项目耗资270亿美元,”辛科维奇说道。“这些项目对本地劳动力有巨大需求,因此无法像制造业或软件行业那样被外包或远程完成。”

"Amazon committed $12 billion to a new data center with 540 new on-site jobs, including 1,700 electricians, technicians, and security personnel. Meta's Hyperion project in Louisiana is $27 billion," Sinkovich said. "These projects create demand for on-site workers and therefore cannot be offshored or conducted remotely, unlike manufacturing and software," he added.

他还指出,人工智能的发展正在推动能源系统向更加分散化、更加动态的方向发展;这不仅提高了能源利用效率,还催生了建设智能控制系统、电池系统、微电网以及分布式能源基础设施等新的就业机会。

He also said there is a longer-term story of AI enabling more decentralized and dynamic energy systems. This not only improves energy efficiency but also creates additional work to build smart controls, battery systems, microgrids, and distributed energy infrastructure.

经济乐观情绪与公众的怀疑态度:全球房地产服务公司Cushman & Wakefield的最新研究表明,每新增100兆瓦的数据中心建设规模,就会在当地经济中创造近1300个就业岗位,每年产生约1.1亿美元的工资收入、3.44亿美元的产值以及1.87亿美元的地区生产总值。而且,这些岗位大多不需要高等学历——许多岗位更适合通过职业培训学校来培养相关人才。

Economic optimism vs. public skepticism Recent research from global real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield indicates that every 100MW of new data center development creates nearly 1,300 jobs in the local economy, generating approximately $110 million in annual wages, $344 million in gross output, and $187 million in gross regional product. And many of these jobs aren't ones requiring a diploma. In fact, many of them are better suited to a path through trade school. But the optimistic shovels on the ground analysis don't match the national mood.

然而,这种乐观的预测与公众的实际情绪并不一致。根据盖洛普(Gallup)的调查,70%的美国人反对在他们的居住地区建设数据中心;《纽约时报》与Siena联合进行的民意调查也显示,无论属于哪个政党(民主党、独立选民或共和党),大约三分之二的受访者都持反对意见。

Seventy percent of Americans oppose a data center being built in their local area, according to Gallup, and a New York Times/Siena poll conducted this month found roughly two-thirds opposed regardless of party — Democrats, independents and Republicans alike.

即使在数据中心建设进展迅速、创造大量就业机会的地区,公众舆论也普遍持反对态度。根据Texas Politics Project的调查,57%的选民反对在他们的社区内建设数据中心;一些专家因此认为民主党在该州可能会因此获得更多支持。根据Data Center Watch的统计,由于公众的反对情绪日益强烈,今年至少有75个数据中心项目被推迟或取消,涉及总投资额约130亿美元。

Even where data centers are proceeding at a robust clip and creating the most jobs public opinion has turned against them. Fifty-seven percent of voters oppose one in their own community, according to a Texas Politics Project poll enough that some experts see Democrats gaining group in the Lone Star State. According to Data Center Watch at least 75 data center projects worth roughly $130 billion have already been blocked or delayed this year as the backlash spreads. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, currently up for reelection, recently issued a data center grid approval moratorium and halt on new environmental permits. New York Governor Kathy Hochul recently implemented the first statewide ban on new data centers.

目前正在竞选连任的德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特(Greg Abbott)近期发布了一项针对数据中心电网接入的暂停令,并叫停了新的环境许可审批。纽约州州长凯西·霍楚尔(Kathy Hochul)近期也实施了全州首个针对新建数据中心的禁令。

The dynamics of the situation prompted Oracle this week to file a "force majeure " (a stipulation that a project may be delayed due to extraordinary circumstances) notice on its New Mexico data center project, part of the broader Stargate AI buildout, seeking to delay payment if the facility isn't operational by 2028, citing local opposition ahead of the midterms and environmental concerns among the setbacks that have plagued the project.

受此局势影响,甲骨文公司(Oracle)本周针对其新墨西哥州的数据中心项目提交了一份“不可抗力”(指因特殊情况导致项目可能延期的条款)通知。该项目是甲骨文“星门”(Stargate)人工智能扩建计划的一部分。甲骨文在通知中表示,由于中期选举前的当地反对声音以及环境问题等阻碍了项目进展,公司寻求在设施无法于2028年前投入运营的情况下推迟付款。

Shenandoah University professor Michael Hicks, who has studied the economic impact of data centers, says that the public mood is often the result of the mismatch between what data centers promise and their reality. "Most of the backlash is the result of developers being untruthful with local officials about potential effects, developers have woefully overpromised jobs and given tax breaks that are beyond obscene," Hicks said.

研究过数据中心经济影响的谢南多厄大学教授迈克尔·希克斯(Michael Hicks)表示,公众情绪的转变往往源于数据中心所承诺的内容与现实之间的巨大落差。

He added that he believes studies like the ones produced by Cushman & Wakefield and others use modeling with the rosiest possible scenarios, whereas he has studied actual on the ground impact from data centers going back to the early 90s.

希克斯说:“大部分抵制情绪源于开发商在潜在影响方面对当地官员不诚实,他们严重夸大了就业承诺,并提供了极其离谱的税收减免。”

"Permanent labor market effects are muted. There are very few that have substantiative numbers beyond the early build out phase," Hicks said.

他补充道,他认为像戴德梁行(Cushman & Wakefield)等机构发布的研究报告采用了最乐观的情景建模,而他本人则研究了自90年代初以来数据中心对当地产生的实际影响。

That said, Hicks is a fan of data centers, but not because of jobs. He said if data centers are taxed at the same rate as households they are generally going to cause an enormous increase in taxable property for a community. He said that surplus can then be used to cut residents property taxes, citing Loudon County, Virginia where average property taxes have dropped by $3,400 since 2020 due to the huge data center build out. Or instead of cutting taxes, the additional revenue can be used to increase community amenities and services that improve quality of life that outweigh the noise and grid strain.

希克斯表示:“数据中心对劳动力市场的长期影响微乎其微。除了早期的建设阶段外,很少有项目能提供实质性的就业岗位。”

That said, Hicks is a fan of data centers, but not because of jobs. He said if data centers are taxed at the same rate as households they are generally going to cause an enormous increase in taxable property for a community. He said that surplus can then be used to cut residents property taxes, citing Loudon County, Virginia where average property taxes have dropped by $3,400 since 2020 due to the huge data center build out. Or instead of cutting taxes, the additional revenue can be used to increase community amenities and services that improve quality of life that outweigh the noise and grid strain.

话虽如此,希克斯确实是数据中心的拥趸,但这并非出于对就业岗位的考量。他表示,如果数据中心与居民住宅适用相同的税率,通常会导致一个社区的应税财产价值大幅攀升。他指出,由此产生的财政盈余可用于降低当地居民的房产税,并以弗吉尼亚州劳登县为例,该县自2020年以来,得益于数据中心的大规模建设,平均房产税已下降了3400美元。或者,在不减税的情况下,这笔额外收入也可用于提升社区设施和服务,从而改善生活质量,其带来的益处足以抵消噪音和电网负荷带来的负面影响。

At the same time, some states are also lavishing tax breaks on data centers that some say are both undeserved and ultimately, bad economics. How a small town and family business in Georgia have benefited But observations on the ground do bear out the current labor boom.

与此同时,一些州也在向数据中心提供丰厚的税收优惠,但批评人士认为,这些优惠既名不副实,从长远来看也是糟糕的经济决策。

Trey Travis, vice president of operations at industrial hose and expansion joint manufacturer Southeastern Hose in Bremen, Georgia (population 7,000), is the third generation at the helm of this family-owned company. AI was science fiction when the company was started by his grandfather in the 1960s. Now, AI is their booming reality.

佐治亚州一个小镇和家族企业如何从中受益?不过,实地观察确实印证了当前劳动力市场的繁荣景象。

Southeastern Hose's expertise is in fluid conveyance and thermal expansion. Travis said their products are essential for managing temperature changes and preventing catastrophic failures in rigid piping systems. In simpler terms, his company produces the plumbing for the plumbing, the obscure pieces of the data center.

特雷·特拉维斯是位于佐治亚州布雷默市(人口7000人)的东南软管公司(Southeastern Hose)运营副总裁。该公司是一家工业软管和膨胀节制造商,特拉维斯是这家家族企业的第三代掌舵人。当他的祖父在20世纪60年代创立这家公司时,人工智能还只是科幻小说中的概念。如今,人工智能已成为他们蓬勃发展的现实。

Southeastern Hose's expertise is in fluid conveyance and thermal expansion. Travis said their products are essential for managing temperature changes and preventing catastrophic failures in rigid piping systems. In simpler terms, his company produces the plumbing for the plumbing, the obscure pieces of the data center. "If there is fluid moving anywhere or a change in temps, there will be a hose or expansion joint in the piping system somewhere," Travis said.

东南软管公司的专长在于流体输送和热膨胀管理。特拉维斯表示,他们的产品对于管理温度变化、防止刚性管道系统发生灾难性故障至关重要。用更通俗的话来说,他的公司生产的是“管道中的管道”,即数据中心中那些不起眼但关键的部件。

He compared his products to the "missing screw" that might come up in a home DIY project, something obscure – but crucial – to a home project that will send you back to the hardware store if you don't have it because the project can't proceed without it. The market for the piping and joints made by Southeastern Hose is booming now, giving Travis's tiny Georgia town an economic lifeline.

“只要有任何地方存在流体流动或温度变化,管道系统中某处就一定会有软管或膨胀节,”特拉维斯说。

"We've grown pretty significantly over the last 18 months," he said.

他将自家产品比作家庭DIY项目中可能遇到的“缺失的螺丝钉”,虽然不起眼,但对项目至关重要——如果你没有它,项目就无法继续,只能被迫返回五金店购买。

The company's 150-person workforce has ballooned by 40 percent during that time. "We've got a pretty vast relationship with some of our local trade schools and high schools for work-based learning programs," Travis said of their ability to hire workers. He said workers can get all the overtime they want, make plenty of money, and still have a family life.

Southeastern Hose生产的管道和接头市场目前正在蓬勃发展,为特拉维斯所在的佐治亚州小镇提供了经济命脉。“过去18个月里,我们实现了相当显著的增长,”他说。在此期间,该公司150人的员工队伍膨胀了40%。

Some of the skills needed to make data center components are even outrunning the trade schools, like the specialized welding skills needed.

“我们与当地一些职业学校和高中建立了相当广泛的合作关系,开展工学结合项目,”特拉维斯谈到他们的招工能力时说。他表示,工人们可以获得所有想要的加班机会,赚取丰厚收入,同时还能兼顾家庭生活。

"If I get a top notch welder from the local trade school, I still have on-site training because they've never seen this type of welding on this type of product before," Travis said. None of this surprises labor economist Michael Rosenbaum, who said the popular narrative is that AI is replacing workers, but that isn't the whole story.

制造数据中心组件所需的某些技能甚至超过了职业学校的教学进度,比如所需的专业焊接技能。

"The more important labor-market story is that AI is increasing the pace at which jobs are created, transformed, and displaced," Rosenbaum said, adding that as demand surges for electrical engineers, HVAC technicians, cable engineers, and other skilled trades supporting data center construction, the question isn't whether enough workers exist in the economy.

“即使我从当地职业学校招到一名顶尖焊工,我仍需进行现场培训,因为他们以前从未见过这种产品上的这种焊接类型,”特拉维斯说。

"The more important labor-market story is that AI is increasing the pace at which jobs are created, transformed, and displaced," Rosenbaum said, adding that as demand surges for electrical engineers, HVAC technicians, cable engineers, and other skilled trades supporting data center construction, the question isn't whether enough workers exist in the economy.

劳动经济学家迈克尔·罗森鲍姆对此并不感到意外,他表示,大众叙事认为AI正在取代工人,但这并非全部真相。

"The more important labor-market story is that AI is increasing the pace at which jobs are created, transformed, and displaced," Rosenbaum said, adding that as demand surges for electrical engineers, HVAC technicians, cable engineers, and other skilled trades supporting data center construction, the question isn't whether enough workers exist in the economy.

“更重要的劳动力市场故事是,AI正在加快岗位创造、转型和置换的步伐,”罗森鲍姆说,并补充道,随着对电气工程师、暖通空调技术人员、线缆工程师以及其他支持数据中心建设的熟练技工需求激增,问题不在于经济中是否存在足够的工人。

"It's whether we can identify them, train them, and connect them to opportunity quickly enough. AI may ultimately prove just as valuable in helping workers navigate career transitions as it is in automating work itself," Rosenbaum said.

“而在于我们能否足够快地识别他们、培训他们,并将他们与机会连接起来。AI最终在帮助工人应对职业转型方面,可能证明其价值不亚于自动化工作本身,”罗森鲍姆说。

Microsoft's Boydton data center in Southern Virginia has driven workforce development, with Southside Virginia Community College and Southern Virginia Higher Education Center's Data Center Academy supporting traditional college-aged and adult learners to earn credentials for data center work.

微软位于弗吉尼亚州南部的博伊顿数据中心推动了劳动力开发,南弗吉尼亚社区学院和南弗吉尼亚高等教育中心的数据中心学院支持传统大学适龄学生和成人学习者获得数据中心工作的资质认证。

Rachel Lipson, founder of Harvard's Project on Workforce and an advisor in the Biden administration's investments in chips and semiconductor manufacturing, said AI will change the American workforce in ways that previous waves of technology didn't.

哈佛大学劳动力项目创始人、拜登政府芯片和半导体制造投资顾问Rachel Lipson表示,人工智能将以以往技术浪潮未曾有过的方式改变美国劳动力市场。"这波技术变革看起来与我们在计算机和互联网早期以及美国制造业外包时期所见截然不同," Lipson说。在那些时期,几乎所有的就业增长都流向了受教育程度最高的工人,但这一次情况不同。她表示,焊工高中毕业后很快就能年薪6.5万至7.5万美元,且拥有几乎无限的加班机会。"如今许多就业机会不需要高级学位。我们正在见证蓝领岗位的复苏," Lipson说。"但这需要我们在教育、培训投资方向以及支持重点上做出不同的选择,"她补充道。

"This wave of technological change looks very different from what we saw in the early days of computers and the internet and the outsourcing of manufacturing in the U.S.," Lipson said. During those periods, almost all of the job growth went to workers with the highest level of education, but this time around things are different. Welders, she said, can graduate from high school and be making $65,000 to $75,000 a year in short order with almost unlimited overtime. "A lot of job opportunities today don't require advanced degrees. We are seeing a blue collar resurgence," Lipson said. "But it will require making a different set of choices of where we invest in education, training, and what we support," she added. Even with the public and, along with them, politicians swinging hard against AI in recent weeks, Lipson doesn't expect an immediate retreat from the jobs boom.

尽管公众以及随之而来的政客在最近几周强烈反对AI,Lipson并不预期就业热潮会立即退却。"短期内,暂停令和公众抨击不太可能对这些岗位的需求产生重大影响,因为已经有太多AI和数据中心项目正在进行或已获批准,尽管近期风向转变,这些项目仍将继续推进," Lipson说。

"In the short term, the moratoria and public backlash are unlikely to have a big impact on demand for these roles, because there are so many AI and data center projects already underway or approved that will continue moving forward despite the recent shifts," Lipson said. If opposition to data centers continues to grow, that could muddy the market.

如果对数据中心的反对情绪持续升温,可能会使市场前景变得模糊。"长远来看情况可能不同。如果暂停令蔓延,获批新项目大幅减少,最终会传导至劳动力需求——但会有滞后性,因为现有项目管道仍在建设中," Lipson说。

"The longer-term picture could be different. If moratoria spread and significantly fewer new projects are approved, eventually that would flow through to labor demand — but with a lag, as the existing pipeline gets built out," Lipson said.

ZipRecruiter的Bachaud也同意,由于建设AI基础设施耗时较长,舆论对数据中心态度的任何转变都需要一段时间才能在实地显现。

ZipRecruiters Bachaud agrees that any shift in sentiment towards data centers will take awhile to manifest itself on the ground because of the time involved in building out AI infrastructure.

“从规划、申请许可到实际建设,整个过程可能需要数月时间;在某些地区,甚至可能需要数年时间。随着公众舆论的变化,数据中心选址及其发展速度很可能会发生变化,但这些变化的实施过程将会非常缓慢,”Bachaud说道。

"The planning, permits, and actual build can take months, or even years in some parts of the country. As public sentiment shifts, the future of data center locations and the speed at which they develop will likely change, but the rollout of these changes will be slow," Bachaud said.

更宏观的宏观经济因素也将决定数据中心建设领域从业人员的未来命运。

Larger macroeconomic forces will also help determine the future of data center workers in construction trades.

“虽然数据中心正在推动相关地区的就业发展,但这些从业人员的未来需求将取决于整体经济增长情况——比如对住宅、多户住宅以及商业建筑的需求,”Bauchaud解释道。“由于对住房的需求持续高涨,许多从业人员在经济状况改善后可能会转行从事其他工作;然而,购房者购买力的下降会阻碍房地产建设进程,进而影响就业机会。”请在谷歌上将 CNBC 设为你的首选新闻来源,这样你就不会错过任何一条来自这一权威商业新闻机构的报道了。

"While data centers are boosting the local labor dynamics in places that are building, future demand for many of these workers will depend on general economic growth, like demand for residential and multi-family housing and commercial buildings," Bauchaud said. "The need for additional housing is high, so many of these workers could transition into other roles if economic conditions improve, but waning affordability for home buyers threatens building progress and thus job availability." Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.