劳伦·罗森塔尔和布莱恩·K·沙利文报道：随着厄尔尼诺现象在太平洋上增强，加利福尼亚州正面临可能高达数十亿美元的洪水威胁。
By Lauren Rosenthal and Brian K Sullivan California is facing a potentially multi-billion-dollar flood threat as El Niño gathers strength in the Pacific Ocean.
变暖的厄尔尼诺现象往往会在太平洋上引发强烈风暴，包括大气河。其中一些源自夏威夷附近的大气河被称为“菠萝快车”。最猛烈的降雨通常发生在冬季。但厄尔尼诺现象已经对加州部分海滩造成了破坏，预计未来几周的洪水风险将进一步上升。由谷歌风投支持的风险分析公司Climate X的灾害模型师估计，基于过去事件造成的损害，厄尔尼诺现象可能导致加州全州在冬季遭受20亿至30亿美元的洪水和泥石流损失。根据非营利组织Climate Central的估算，加州平均每年遭受约5亿美元的洪水损失。
The warming El Niño phenomenon tends to unleash powerful storms in the Pacific, including atmospheric rivers, some of which are named the “Pineapple Express” if they originate near Hawaii. The heaviest rains tend to come during the winter months. But El Niño is already wreaking havoc on some California beaches, with flood risks expected to rise in the weeks ahead.Disaster modelers at Climate X, a risk analytics firm backed by Google Ventures, estimate that El Niño could cause $2 billion to $3 billion in losses from flooding and mudslides statewide through the winter, based on damage inflicted during past events. On average, California tends to see about $500 million a year in flood damages, according to estimates from the nonprofit Climate Central.
华盛顿大学气候、海洋与生态系统研究合作研究所的高级科学家迈克尔·麦克菲登表示，一个新兴的威胁来自开尔文波脉冲，这些波动会推高整个太平洋的海平面。麦克菲登指出，这些巨大的水下波浪是由厄尔尼诺期间风向变化引起的，当极端风暴和强风猛烈冲击加州海岸线时，它们会加剧沿海洪水。
An emerging threat comes from a pulse of Kelvin waves that boost sea levels through the Pacific Ocean, said Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist affiliated with the University of Washington’s Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies. The massive, underwater waves — which result from changing winds during El Niño — can intensify coastal flooding when extreme storms and high winds pound California’s shoreline.
据麦克菲登称，下一波显著的开尔文波预计将在10月初抵达加州。阿尔巴尼大学厄尔尼诺研究员、大气科学教授保罗·朗迪表示，开尔文波在穿越太平洋的过程中，已将海平面推高至多16英寸（40厘米）。
The next significant wave is expected to land in California by early October, according to McPhaden. So far, Kelvin waves have boosted sea levels up to 16 inches (40 centimeters) on their trek through the Pacific, said Paul Roundy, an El Niño researcher and atmospheric science professor at the University at Albany.
自6月厄尔尼诺现象形成以来，这并非加州面临的首个沿海威胁。数周以来，该现象一直在太平洋上增强飓风和台风，将热带强风和巨浪抛向美国西海岸。
They won’t be the first coastal threat California has faced since El Niño developed in June. For weeks, the phenomenon has been supercharging hurricanes and typhoons through the Pacific, flinging tropical winds and heavy surf toward the US West Coast.
9月初，风暴“玛丽”的残余势力猛烈冲击南加州海岸线，几乎抹平了一些海滩和防波堤。奥兰治县有十几处海滨住宅严重受损，其中至少有一处已被列入拆除名单。
In early September, remnants of storm Marie slammed the Southern California coastline and all but erased some beaches and seawalls. More than a dozen oceanfront homes were severely damaged in Orange County, with at least one marked for demolition.
气候中心（Climate Central）灾害研究员亚当·史密斯表示，在厄尔尼诺现象达到顶峰前几个月就出现这种“实质性”的海滩侵蚀，这“增加了发生更严重沿海洪水、侵蚀和基础设施损坏的可能性”。据气候中心数据显示，在极端厄尔尼诺事件期间，加州各地的海岸侵蚀风险往往会增加三分之二以上。随着损失开始累积，加州各社区和州政府机构正在加紧准备，以应对预计将到来的狂风暴雨冬季。加文·纽森州长于9月22日宣布全州进入紧急状态，指示交通官员评估脆弱的基础设施。纽森在命令中表示，预计审批机构将协助加快堤坝修复、河道拓宽工程以及桥梁保护工作的进度。
These early bursts of “substantial” beach erosion months ahead of El Niño’s peak “raise the potential for more severe coastal flooding, erosion, and infrastructure damage,” said Adam Smith, a Climate Central disaster researcher. Across California, coastal erosion risk tends to rise by more than two-thirds during extreme El Niño events, according to Climate With damage already beginning to stack up, California communities and state agencies are ramping up preparations for what’s anticipated to be a wild winter of storms. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a statewide emergency on Sept. 22 that directs transportation officials to assess vulnerable infrastructure. Permitting agencies are expected to help ease the way for expedited levee repairs, channel-widening projects and protections for bridges, Newsom said in his order.
圣迭戈县北部的卡尔斯巴德市官员正试图加固摇摇欲坠的悬崖，而受风暴影响的马里布市当局则计划从9月29日开始举办一系列社区研讨会，指导居民应对在厄尔尼诺冬季沿海居住所面临的“独特风险”。
City officials in Carlsbad, in north San Diego County, are attempting to shore up crumbling bluffs, while authorities in storm-hit Malibu are now planning a series of community workshops starting Sept. 29 to coach residents through the “unique risks” that residents face living along the coast during an El Niño winter.
马里布市公共安全主管苏珊·杜埃尼亚斯说：“我们已经进行了测绘，最坏的情况不容乐观。”在脆弱的峡谷中，岩石滑坡和“泥石流”很容易切断位于城市两端的道路，可能导致居民在暴雨后被困。杜埃尼亚斯说：“我们告诉人们要准备好足够两周食用的食物。”
“We’ve mapped it out and the worst-case scenario is not good,” said Susan Dueñas, Malibu’s public safety director. Rock slides and “mud floods” through vulnerable canyons can easily cut off roads located at either end of the city, potentially leaving residents stranded after heavy rains. “We tell people to have enough food for a couple weeks,” Duenas said.
“最近发生的野火留下的烧毁区域附近的基础设施和住宅将特别容易受到破坏，”Climate X公司的科学家埃里克·拉尔森（Erik Larson）说道。“每当发生野火，尤其是在山坡上时，发生山体滑坡的风险就会大大增加。植被的消失会导致更多的水从地表流走，从而增加突发洪水的风险。”历史可以为我们提供一个例子，让我们了解强厄尔尼诺现象（El Niño）可能带来的后果：在1997-1998年那次有记录以来最强烈的厄尔尼诺事件期间，根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA）的数据，1998年1月和2月是美国本土有记录以来最温暖、降雨量最大的月份；加利福尼亚州甚至创下了该州有记录以来最潮湿的2月。
Infrastructure and homes near recent wildfire burn scars will be especially vulnerable, said Erik Larson, a Climate X scientist. “Anytime you have wildfire, especially on slopes, you’re way more at risk of landslides,” Larson said. “The removal of vegetation like that is going to cause a lot more water to flow over the surface, so it increases your risk of flash floods.” History offers a glimpse of what a powerful El Niño can bring. During the tail end of the 1997-98 event, one of the strongest on record, January and February 1998 were at the time the warmest and wettest such months on record for the contiguous US, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. California recorded what was then its wettest February.