在阅读资深民主党策略师塔德·德瓦因的新书之前,我对又一本关于2016年大选的“尸检报告”翻了白眼(不得不承认,那也是我有资格投票的第一场总统大选)。特朗普总统甚至还没走完第二个任期的一半,就已对支撑美国的所有制度造成严重破坏,疏远盟友,发动了一场毫无意义且危险的战争,并用谎言和危险政策进一步分裂美国人。
Before I read long-time Democratic strategist Tad Devine’s new book, I rolled my eyes at the prospect of yet another post-mortem on the 2016 election (which was admittedly also the first presidential election in which I was eligible to vote). Not even halfway through his second term, President Trump has wreaked havoc on all the institutions that have sustained the United States, alienated our allies started a pointless and dangerous war and further divided Americans with his lies and dangerous policies.
与此同时,完全由共和党控制、充当帮凶的国会似乎无法像负责任的制衡力量那样遏制他的权力扩张。如今,所有人的目光都聚焦于2026年中期选举以及可能由此带来的一线问责希望,为何还要重新审理近十年前发生的初选?
Meanwhile, a complicit Congress completely controlled by Republicans seems incapable of acting like a responsible check on his assertion of power. Now, with all eyes on the 2026 midterms and the glimmer of accountability that may come from them, why relitigate a primary election that happened almost a decade ago?
德瓦恩并非只是个沉溺于过去的政治评论员,他的新书也并非单纯指责民主党如何搞砸了大选的事后诸葛亮式反思。相反,身为民主党最知名的媒体策略师之一、以及伯尼·桑德斯2016年竞选活动的首席策略师,德瓦恩在书中详细拆解了民主党全国委员会(DNC)和希拉里·克林顿竞选团队如何利用超级代表、肮脏手段、暗钱和媒体力量,阻挠桑德斯2016年的总统竞选。
Devine, however, isn’t just some political pundit obsessing over the past, and his book isn’t some finger-wagging post-mortem on how the Democrats messed up. Instead, Devine, one of the Democratic Party’s most well-known media strategists and Senator Bernie Sanders’ chief campaign strategist in 2016, breaks down how the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary Clinton campaign used superdelegates dirty tricks dark money the press to thwart Sanders’ 2016 presidential run.
换句话说,用书名的意译来说,“伯尼被坑了”。令我惊讶的是,读完这本书后,我感到的更多是受鼓舞,而非怨愤或灰心。德瓦恩提供了许多深刻的教训,指出如果民主党建制派能摆脱对暗钱的依赖、推动竞选财务改革、并团结在年轻的民主社会主义者周围而不妥协党的价值观——前提是他们能就这些价值观是什么达成共识——民主党就能赢得选举。
In other words, to paraphrase the title, “Bernie got screwed.”To my surprise, I came away from the book more inspired than embittered or disheartened. Devine offers plenty of insightful lessons about how the Democrats can win elections if its establishment could only wean itself off dark money, push for campaign finance reform, and coalesce around younger Democratic Socialists without compromising the party’s values–assuming that it can come to some agreement about what those values are.
“这本书不是关于酸葡萄心理,它真正关乎那场大选对我们未来的意义,”德瓦恩说。“如果我们能从2016年的竞选中学到些什么,我会非常高兴。”剧透警告:在我们的采访中,德瓦恩甚至可能会对2028年的潜在候选人大胆预测一两位。我们通过Zoom连线交谈,当时他在罗德岛布洛克岛的家中。本次对话经编辑删减,以求言简意赅。您认为2016年民主党主要通过哪两种方式“搞垮”了伯尼?
“This book isn’t about sour grapes, it’s really about what that election can mean for our future,” Devine says. “If we learned something from the 2016 campaign, I’ll be very happy about that.”Spoiler alert: Devine may even hazard a guess or two on 2028 hopefuls during our interview. We spoke by Zoom when he was at his home on Block Island, Rhode Island. Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity. What are the two major ways that you think the Democrats screwed Bernie in 2016?
一种方式是提名程序本身的设计。这是一个旨在将局外人拒之门外、给予内部人士巨大优势的体制。所有这些都以一种既定的方式让伯尼受挫。但这并非他受挫的真正原因。真正不公平的是克林顿竞选团队对民主党全国委员会(DNC)的全面接管。克林顿竞选团队掌控着民主党全国委员会。我们知道这一点,是因为数百万份维基解密文件披露了关于资金在民主党全国委员会内部如何流动的备忘录。
One way was the design of the nominating process itself. It’s a system designed to keep outsiders out and give a tremendous advantage to insiders. All of that screwed Bernie in an established way. But that’s not really how he got screwed. The real thing that was unfair was the overall takeover of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) by the Clinton campaign. The Clinton campaign ran the DNC. We know that because of millions of WikiLeaks pages revealed memos about the way money was being moved around inside the DNC.
克林顿夫妇采用的策略,比如举行多少场民主党初选辩论、何时举行,以及利用由暗资高额资助的外部超级政治行动委员会(Super PACs),都是这场针对伯尼的卑鄙竞选活动的一部分。那么,他们是如何让伯尼受挫的?有一套现成的体制,经过精心设计,就是为了挡住像他这样的人,我接受这一现实。但克林顿对民主党全国委员会的控制、暗资超级政治行动委员会、媒体对竞选的报道方式——所有这些他们做了却不该做的事,才是让伯尼受挫的原因。
The tactics that the Clintons employed, like when and how many [Democratic primary] debates would be held, and using outside Super PACs highly funded by dark money, were all part of this underhanded campaign against Bernie. So how did they screw Bernie? There was a system in place that was engineered to keep someone like him out, and I accept the reality of that. But Clinton’s control of the DNC dark money super PACS the way the press covered the race–all of those things that they did, which they should not have done, screwed Bernie.
“克林顿对民主党全国委员会的控制、暗资超级政治行动委员会、媒体对竞选的报道方式——所有这些他们做了却不该做的事,让伯尼受挫。”你在书中详细剖析了这一点,但如果我不问这个问题就太失职了:考虑到伯尼甚至不是民主党党员,民主党建制派是否本应对伯尼保持忠诚?
“Clinton’s control of the DNC, dark money super PACS, the way the press covered the race–all of those things that they did, which they should not have done, screwed Bernie.”You unpack this in the book, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t ask: Should the Democratic establishment have felt allegiance towards Bernie considering the fact that he wasn’t even a member of the Democratic Party?
我认为他们本应如此。首先,他曾在国会为他们主持党团会议,在众议院和参议院都是如此。这个人已经证明了自己对民主党的忠诚。我认为民主党欠他一个公道。首先,他是以民主党人身份参选的。他没有[以独立人士身份参选]这一点,本应足以让民主党建制派说:“我们会给你一个公平的流程。我们不会害你。”但他们还是害了他。
I think they should have. Number one, he caucused for them in Congress, in both the House and the Senate. This is a guy who has demonstrated his fidelity to the Democratic Party. I think they owed him. First of all, he ran as a Democrat. The fact that he didn’t [run as an Independent] should’ve been enough for the Democratic establishment to say, ‘We’ll have a fair process. We’re not going to screw him.”But they did.
当我开始写这本书时,并没有真正从这种角度去思考。最初我不接受这个书名,因为我觉得它听起来太像特朗普的言辞。但当我开始自行开展研究并动笔写作时,我回过头来意识到:“他们真是把伯尼坑惨了!”我毫不怀疑,这个程序是不公平的。民主党全国委员会需要成为一个独立机构。但2016年并不是这样。克林顿从一开始就控制着它。
When I started writing the book, I didn’t really think of it in those terms. I rejected the title initially because I thought it sounded too much like Trump’s rhetoric. But as I started doing my own research and started writing, I looked back and realized, ‘They really screw Bernie!’I have no doubt that it was an unfair process. The Democratic National Committee needs to be an independent body. That didn’t happen in 2016. Clinton controlled it from the very beginning.
民主党全国委员会关于2024年总统选举的那份极具争议的事后复盘报告于今年5月公布。报告对如今民主党全国委员会以及民主党整套组织体系的状况有何评价?
The DNC’s very controversial post-mortem report on the 2024 presidential election came out in May of this year. What does the report say about the state of the DNC and the Democratic Party apparatus today?
我认为那份尸检报告纯粹是个笑话——它并没有真正深入剖析2024年发生的事件,而只是被用作政治工具罢了。我认为该政党并没有从过去的错误中吸取任何教训;正因如此,全国范围内的党员注册人数持续减少。越来越多的人选择成为无党派人士,因为他们无法在任何一个政党中找到归属感。我们真的需要认真思考如何建立一个能够解决国家问题的新体制。
I think the autopsy report was a joke. It was not a serious look back at what happened in 2024. It was a political agenda item. I don’t think the party has learned many lessons in its recent past. That’s why our numbers continue to dwindle in terms of party registration throughout the country. More and more people are moving to being independents because they can’t find a home in either of the parties, and we have to really think about how we’re going to design a system that recognizes the problems in this country.
为什么国家如今会陷入如此困境?虽然把问题归咎于特朗普总统似乎很简单、很方便,但真正的根源在于我们糟糕的竞选财务制度:有人匿名捐款数百万、数亿美元,甚至数十亿美元,以此来影响选举结果。这一切都是由于最高法院的某些裁决所导致的。这种腐败的竞选财务制度不仅破坏了选举的公平性,也进一步加剧了经济的失衡。
Why is the country in so much trouble today? It’s easy and convenient to say it’s because Trump is president. But the real reason we’re in trouble is because we have a campaign finance system that is utterly corrupt. People anonymously contribute millions, hundreds of millions, and now even billions of dollars to control the outcome of elections. Why?
民主党必须意识到:我们必须彻底摒弃那些“暗钱”(即那些通过非法渠道获得的资金)。除非我们解决了这个问题,否则国家根本无法得到改善。
Because of [the Supreme Court’s decision in] . They have created a corrupt campaign finance system that holds in place an economy that is rigged. The Democratic Party has to begin to understand that we need to move away from dark money.
那么,民主党全国委员会(DNC)如今还扮演着什么角色呢?它还有存在的必要吗?或者,它是否还有复兴的希望?
Until we fix that problem, we cannot fix this country. What is the role of the DNC anymore? Is it something that can be revived, or is it even worth reviving?
我认为民主党全国委员会仍然可以发挥重要作用——它可以成为提名过程的公正仲裁者。但在现阶段,我们不应该再与他们进行那些涉及“暗钱”的竞争。我们应该明确承认“暗钱”的本质(即它们其实是对我们政府的恶意操控),并着手推动竞选财务制度的改革。我们必须将竞选财务改革提升到与就业和医疗保健同等重要的地位。
Yes, I think the DNC can have an important role in the process. It can be a fair arbiter of the nominating process. But, in the meantime, I think we should not try to have a dark money race with them. We should swear dark money off, recognize it for what it is, which is a hostile takeover of our government, and begin to work for campaign finance reform. We need to elevate campaign finance reform to the level of jobs and healthcare.
我们需要让人们明白:只有改变那些给予权势利益集团的特殊待遇,才能真正解决国家的经济问题。因此,如果民主党愿意做出改变,它仍然可以发挥重要作用。绝对可以,我相信它一定能够做到。
In terms of the issue spectrum, we need to make people understand that the economic issues in our country can only be solved if we change the advantage given to powerful interests. So yeah, the DNC can play an important role still if it chooses to evolve. Absolutely, I think it can.
我们必须推出与民主党毫无渊源、毫无忠诚度的外部候选人才能获胜。“你对民主党全国委员会(DNC)的演变抱有希望吗?
“We have to run outside candidates who have no allegiance or history to the Democratic Party to win. “Are you hopeful that the DNC evolve?
我抱有希望。鉴于特朗普执政下美国当前的形势,我们的眼光不能超越下一次选举。我们必须将所有精力和注意力集中在争取胜利上。我认为我们正走在十一月大获全胜的道路上。我看着民调,开始看到民主党正在获得普遍优势,在内布拉斯加、堪萨斯、蒙大拿等地——这些地方看起来真的具备了竞选竞争力。我认为我们夺回政府控制权的唯一途径就是取得大胜。
I’m hopeful. Given the situation we’re in right now in America with Trump, our horizon cannot exceed the next election. We have to focus all our energy and attention on trying to win. I believe we’re on a path to a massive victory in November. I look at the polling and begin to see the generic advantage that Democrats are starting to enjoy, in places like Nebraska, or Kansas, or Montana–these are really looking like places where we can compete in elections. I think the only way we’re going to get control of this government back is to have a massive victory.
当然,这一胜利将受到重新分区现实的制约。但如果我们能在大选中成功,夺回众参两院控制权——我相信这是可能的——我们就能获得足够的施展空间,真正追究特朗普的责任。
Now, that victory will be tempered by the reality of reapportionment. But if we can succeed in this election and take control of the House and the Senate–and I believe that’s possible—we can get enough elbow room so that we can really try to hold Trump accountable.
你认为伯尼2016年的竞选活动,以及伯尼本人作为一名民主社会主义者,对我们在中期选举中看到的这股民主社会主义候选人浪潮,应负多大责任?
How much do you think Bernie’s 2016 campaign, and Bernie himself as a Democratic Socialist, is responsible for the wave of current Democratic Socialist candidates that we’re seeing in the midterms?
我认为伯尼对此负主要责任。有许多人深受伯尼2016年竞选活动的影响。亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯曾是一名女服务员,随后她出马参选,当选为国会议员。我自己不是民主社会主义者,但我理解他们的纲领吸引力。如果我们拥有一个以核心经济议题为中心的议程,如果我们谈论就业和工资,如果我们谈论医疗保健、扩大覆盖范围并降低费用,如果我们谈论住房、教育以及为下一代保障社会保障——如果我们成为做这些事的政党,我们将在未来一代人的时间里成为美国的多数党。我认为是伯尼首次将这些议题摆上了桌面。
I think Bernie is principally responsible for this. We have all these people who were deeply affected by Bernie’s 2016 campaign. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez was a waitress, and then she goes out, and she runs for office and gets elected to Congress. I’m not a democratic socialist myself, but I understand the appeal of their platform. If we have a core economic issue-centered agenda, if we talk about jobs and wages, if we talk about healthcare and expanding coverage and making it affordable, if we talk about housing and education and affording Social Security for the next generation—if we become the party that does that, we will be the majority party in America for a generation. And I think Bernie put this on the table for the first time.
你强调了2016年大选中“局外人”的重要性,并认为桑德斯在大选中本将是对抗特朗普的强劲候选人。那么,后特朗普时代的选举,在建制派与局外人的对决中会呈现何种景象?
You emphasize the importance of the outsider in the 2016 race, and that you believe Bernie would have been a formidable candidate against Trump in the general election. What does a post-Trump election look like now between establishment vs. outsider?
我认为我们必须等待并观察这些选举的结果。我相信前景可能非常乐观,而且不仅仅是对局外人有利。我们必须推出与民主党毫无渊源、无过往包袱的局外人候选人来赢得选举。我们要做的是找到一种方式,赋予选民权力,让他们来做这些选择。如果选民决定选出一位非常进步、自称民主社会主义的人,我认为我们作为民主党人必须接受这一点。
I think we have to wait and see the results of these elections. I believe it could look very good, and [not] just for outsiders. We have to run outside candidates who have no allegiance or history to the Democratic Party to win. What we have to do is find a way to empower voters to let them make those choices. And if the voters decide to elect someone who is very progressive and calls themself a Democratic Socialist, I think we have to accept that as Democrats.
我们的联盟中有这些人的位置,这才是我们需要开始思考政治的方式。如果民主党全国委员会今天邀请我去演讲——虽然看到我的书名后他们大概会嘘声四起——我会说:“我们需要为这次选举建立一个联盟,而这个联盟的一部分必须包括美国民主社会主义者。我们需要与他们站在一起。”人们厌倦了政治。他们想要的是:能回应他们诉求、能为他们办实事、并聚焦于他们生活中最重要议题的人。你觉得在2026年和2028年击败共和党需要什么?
There is room for these people in our coalition, and that’s really the way we need to start thinking about politics. If the DNC asked me to come in and speak to them today—although, they’d probably start booing me after seeing the title of my book—I would say, ‘We need to build a coalition for this election, and part of that coalition includes the Democratic Socialists of America. We need to be with them.’People are sick of politics. Here’s what they want: They want people who are responsive to them, who get things done on their behalf, and who focus on the issues that are most important in their lives. What do you feel like it will take to beat Republicans in 2026 and in 2028?
我们需要聚焦于2026年。这需要资源来与共和党竞争。我们无法在资金上超过他们,因为他们拥有巨额资源。但我们需要足够的资源来参与竞争,并且需要真诚、能与选民建立联系、并愿意与选民分享其价值观、信仰和背景的候选人。
We need to focus on 2026. It’s going to take resources to compete with Republicans. We’re not going to be able to outspend them because they’ve got enormous resources. But we need enough resources to compete, and we need candidates who are authentic, who connect with voters, and who are willing to share their values, beliefs, and backgrounds with voters.
我请你推测一下,我保证不拿此事追究你。你认为谁在进入2028年时看起来特别强势?
I’m going to ask you to speculate here, and I promise I won’t hold you to it. Who do you think looks particularly strong going into 2028?
鉴于当前政治运作的方式,我认为民主党的提名人可能是一个我们不认识的人。这就是政治的本质。我认为如果AOC(亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯)现在竞选参议员并当选,我会建议她竞选总统。但既然她没有,我就不会建议她从众议员的位置上竞选总统。但谁知道呢?也许我错了。我认为有很多候选人。有乔恩·奥索夫,他正在证明自己。
Given the way our politics are working now, I believe the nominee of the Democratic Party could be someone we don’t know. That’s just the nature of politics. I think if AOC were running for a Senate seat right now and she got elected, I would advise her to run for president. But the fact that she’s not, I would not advise her to run for president from a House seat. But who knows? Maybe I’m wrong. I think there are a lot of candidates. There’s Jon Ossoff who is really proving himself.
有肯塔基州州长安迪·贝希尔。对于贝希尔,最让我印象深刻的不是他赢了两次选举。最让我印象深刻的是,一个在跨性别议题上表态如此强烈的人,竟然在肯塔基州两次当选州长。显然,他找到了谈论这个议题的方式。如果谢罗德·布朗获胜,虽然他年纪稍大,但他也会是作为副总统竞选搭档的非常有力人选。你希望读者从你的书中获得什么启示?
There’s Andy Beshear the Governor of Kentucky. With Beshear, the thing I’m most impressed by is not that he’s won two races. What I’m most impressed by is a guy who has spoken out so strongly on trans issues got elected governor in the State of Kentucky twice. Obviously, he found a way to talk about this issue. If Sherrod Brown wins, although he’s a little older, he’d also be a very strong candidate to put on a ticket as vice president. What do you hope readers take away from your book?
我希望如果人们读了这本书,能从中看到很多希望。伯尼遭遇了不公,但这本书真正讲的是他做了什么、怎么做的、这对我们这个时代意味着什么,以及最重要的是,这对我们的未来意味着什么。我不想写一本关于过去的书。我想写一本让过去成为我们行动序章的书。如果我们从2016年的竞选中学到了什么,我会非常高兴。
I hope that if people read the book, they see a lot of hope in it. Bernie got screwed, but what the book is really about is what he did, how he did it, what it means for our times, and most importantly, what it can mean for our future. I didn’t want to write a book about the past. I wanted to write a book where the past can be a prologue of what we do. If we learned something from the 2016 campaign, I’ll be very happy about that.