尽管面临日益增长的成本压力，美国经济势头依然强劲，9月份的招聘活动可能连续第二个月保持稳健。
US hiring probably remained solid for a second month in September as economic momentum builds, even in the face of mounting cost pressures.
文斯·戈勒（Vince Golle）和克雷格·斯特林（Craig Stirling）报道。经济学家预计，美国劳工统计局将于周五发布的就业报告将显示，继上月创下3月以来的最大增幅后，非农就业人数将增加约9万人。失业率预计将维持在4.1%的一年低点。
By Vince Golle and Craig Stirling Economists estimate the jobs report due Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will show nonfarm payrolls rose about 90,000 after climbing in the prior month by the most since March. The unemployment rate is seen remaining at a one-year low of 4.1%.
不出所料，近期招聘活动增强的催化剂正是经济本身。需求指标凸显了资本支出持续且狂热的步伐，以及消费者支出的改善。这一背景使得美联储能够将政策重点完全转向通胀。
The catalyst for recent stronger hiring has, unsurprisingly, been the economy itself. Demand metrics highlight an extended and feverish pace of capital spending as well as improved consumer spending. That backdrop has allowed the Federal Reserve to turn its policy focus squarely toward inflation.
周三发布的另一份报告预计将显示，8月份经通胀调整后的个人支出增长0.5%，这将是自一年多以来的最大涨幅。
A separate report on Wednesday is forecast to show a 0.5% increase in August inflation-adjusted personal spending, which would be the biggest advance in just over a year.
该报告还将包括美联储首选的通胀指标。个人消费支出价格指数及其剔除能源和食品后的核心指标，预计8月份的环比增速均将加快。
That release will also include the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Both the personal consumption expenditures price index and the core measure — which excludes energy and food — are projected to quicken in August from a month earlier.
投资者将通过这份报告重新评估美联储是否会在10月的会议上继本月加息后再行加息。目前，市场普遍预期下个月将加息25个基点。
Investors will look to the report to reassess bets on whether the Fed will follow up this month’s interest-rate hike with another at their October meeting. Currently, odds favor a quarter percentage point increase next month.
同样在周三，美国经济分析局（BEA）将发布第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）的修正数据，以及追溯至2021年初的年度GDP更新数据。此外，消费者支出数据和个人消费支出价格指数的方法论也将进行更新。
Also on Wednesday, the BEA will issue revisions to second-quarter gross domestic product as well as annual updates to national GDP as far back as early 2021. Methodological updates will also be made for consumer spending data and the PCE price index.
繁忙的日程还包括周二公布的8月份职位空缺数据，以及周四公布的供应管理协会（ISM）9月份制造业调查报告。
The busy calendar also includes August job openings figures on Tuesday and the Institute for Supply Management’s September manufacturing survey on Thursday.
更多详细信息，请参阅《彭博经济学》（Bloomberg Economics）发布的《美国与加拿大未来一周经济展望》（Week Ahead for the US and Canada）。报告预测，由于制造业和零售销售的疲软，加拿大的经济增长将在7月份出现停滞。8月份的初步GDP数据将有助于提前了解当前经济状况，尤其是在与美国进行的贸易谈判破裂的情况下。加拿大央行官员Toni Gravelle和Carolyn Rogers将在本周发表讲话。
For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the US In Canada, July growth is forecast to have stagnated as manufacturing and retail sales weakened. An advance GDP estimate for August will offer early insights into the economy as trade talks with the US collapsed. Bank of Canada officials Toni Gravelle and Carolyn Rogers will speak during the week. Elsewhere, inflation data from the euro zone to Indonesia, monetary decisions in Australia and Colombia, and Brazilian data ahead of the upcoming presidential election will be among the highlights. Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.
此外，欧元区、印度尼西亚的通胀数据、澳大利亚和哥伦比亚的货币政策决策，以及巴西在即将举行的总统选举前的经济数据，都将成为关注的焦点。
’s central banks and inflation outlook will take center stage as policymakers confront a tough mix of higher global borrowing costs, volatile energy prices, and gathering weather risks.
点击此处可查看过去一周发生的重大事件；以下是关于全球经济未来走势的总结：各国中央银行的货币政策及通胀前景将成为关注的焦点，因为政策制定者面临着全球借贷成本上升、能源价格波动以及日益严重的天气风险等复杂挑战。
The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on monetary policy on Tuesday, with markets watching for another rate increase as officials grapple with stubborn inflation and the fallout from the Fed’s latest hike. decision will test how far policymakers may need to lean against price and currency pressures, even as higher borrowing costs sap economic activity and threaten growth.
澳大利亚央行将于周二宣布货币政策决策。市场预计央行会再次加息，因为官员们正在努力应对顽固的通胀问题以及美联储最新加息带来的影响。这一决策将考验政策制定者在应对通胀和货币压力时能采取多大的措施；尽管更高的借贷成本正在削弱经济活动并威胁经济增长。
Australia’s inflation report follows Wednesday. Price data elsewhere will show whether similar pressures are building, especially as the Middle East conflict keeps crude prices near $100 a barrel and El Niño climate pattern starts to hit food supplies. Indonesia releases inflation data Thursday, while prints from South Korea and Vietnam are announced on Friday and Saturday, respectively.
澳大利亚的通胀报告将于周三发布。其他地区的物价数据将显示类似的压力是否也在加剧——尤其是中东冲突导致原油价格维持在每桶100美元左右，同时厄尔尼诺气候现象开始影响食品供应。
Manufacturing PMIs will provide a key reading on regional demand that’s gotten a lift from the artificial-intelligence upcycle particularly in Taiwan and South Korea. China’s factory activity shrank in August, but the official gauge is expected to rebound this month to above the 50 level, the line that separates expansion from contraction.
印度尼西亚将于周四公布通胀数据；韩国和越南的通胀数据则分别将于周五和周六公布。
Manufacturing PMIs will provide a key reading on regional demand that’s gotten a lift from the artificial-intelligence upcycle particularly in Taiwan and South Korea. China’s factory activity shrank in August, but the official gauge is expected to rebound this month to above the 50 level, the line that separates expansion from contraction.
制造业采购经理指数（PMI）将提供有关区域需求的重要信息。目前，由于人工智能技术的快速发展，尤其是台湾和韩国的制造业需求有所回升。中国的工厂活动在8月份有所萎缩，但预计本月该指数将回升至50以上，这一临界点标志着经济从萎缩转向扩张。
South Korean exports will offer further clues on whether Asia’s industrial economies can hold up as the global bond selloff tightens financial conditions and geopolitical and weather risks push up input costs. Japan’s Tankan survey is expected to show sentiment at the nation’s largest manufacturers improving to the most optimistic level since December 2017.
韩国出口将提供进一步线索，显示亚洲工业经济体能否在全球债券抛售收紧金融条件、地缘政治和天气风险推高投入成本的背景下保持韧性。
Europe, Middle East, Africa Euro-area inflation will hit its highest level in three years, according to forecasts ahead of data due on Friday, with the median forecast anticipating an outcome of 3.7%.
日本短观调查预计将显示该国大型制造商的信心改善至2017年12月以来的最乐观水平。
Separate gauges from Germany, France, Italy and Spain come out earlier in the week. Similar quickening is predicted, driven by energy costs Such results would add to the case for a third rate hike this year by the European Central Bank. Among several of its officials speaking in the coming days, President Christine Lagarde kicks things off with testimony on Monday to a European Parliament panel in Brussels.
欧洲、中东、非洲 据周五将公布的数据前的预测，欧元区通胀将升至三年来最高水平，中位数预测预期结果为3.7%。
Separate gauges from Germany, France, Italy and Spain come out earlier in the week. Similar quickening is predicted, driven by energy costs Such results would add to the case for a third rate hike this year by the European Central Bank. Among several of its officials speaking in the coming days, President Christine Lagarde kicks things off with testimony on Monday to a European Parliament panel in Brussels.
德国、法国、意大利和西班牙的单独指标将于本周早些时候公布。预测也将出现类似的加速，由能源成本驱动。此类结果将增加欧洲央行今年第三次加息的理由。在未来几天发表讲话的几位官员中，行长拉加德将于周一在布鲁塞尔欧洲议会小组作证，拉开序幕。
In the UK a number of Bank of England appearances are on the agenda, including one by Governor Andrew Bailey at a conference celebrating former policymaker Charles Goodhart. The central bank’s Decision Maker Panel survey will come out on Friday.
在英国，英格兰银行有多场公开露面安排，包括行长贝利在纪念前决策者古德哈特的会议上的发言。央行的决策者小组调查将于周五公布。包含支出构成的第二季度GDP终值定于周三公布。
A final look at GDP in the second quarter, featuring expenditure components, is scheduled for Wednesday. Minutes from Sweden’s Riksbank, which on Thursday shifted further toward a possible hike will be released on Wednesday.
瑞典央行会议纪要将于周三发布，该央行周四进一步倾向于可能加息。
In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank will publish a tally of its foreign-exchange interventions during the second quarter. The central bank has dialed down its language threatening such action to curb gains in the franc after a meaningful weakening in the currency.
在瑞士，瑞士国家银行将公布第二季度外汇干预统计。在法郎大幅走弱后，央行已淡化威胁采取此类行动以遏制法郎升值的措辞。
In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank will publish a tally of its foreign-exchange interventions during the second quarter. The central bank has dialed down its language threatening such action to curb gains in the franc after a meaningful weakening in the currency.
由于这一举措推高了进口成本，瑞士国家银行（SNB）适度上调了通胀预测。经济学家预计周四公布的最新物价涨幅读数为1%，这将是两年来的最快增速。瑞士国家银行行长马丁·施莱格尔在周六播出的采访中表示，央行在通胀问题上处于“舒适局面”。
With that move having stoked import costs, the SNB moderately raised its inflation forecasts The latest reading of price growth on Thursday is anticipated by economists at 1%, which would be the fastest in two years. SNB President Martin Schlegel said in an interview broadcast on Saturday that the central bank is in a “comfortable situation” on inflation.
标准普尔全球评级定于周五对罗马尼亚进行潜在信用评级更新。该国因数月政治动荡而动荡不安，目前处于最低投资级，面临被降为垃圾级的风险。
Romania is on the schedule of S&P Global Ratings for a potential credit-score update on Friday. The country, roiled by months of political turmoil, is at the lowest investment grade and in danger of a cut to junk.
转向非洲，伊朗和乌克兰战争的外部溢出效应可能导致莫桑比克周三维持利率在9.25%不变，因为官员们正在评估对其通胀预测的风险。赞比亚的通胀放缓可能迫使其连续第四次降低借贷成本。
Turning to Africa, external spillovers from the Iran and Ukraine wars could see Mozambique keep its rate steady at 9.25% on Wednesday as officials assess the risks to their inflation forecasts. Disinflation in Zambia will likely force a fourth successive cut in borrowing costs.
拉丁美洲 巴西10月4日的选举即将成为焦点，民调显示总统大选——80岁的现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦对阵45岁的右翼挑战者弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗——将于10月25日进入第二轮决选。
Latin America Brazil’s Oct. 4 election is about to take center stage with opinion polls suggesting the presidential race — pitting 80-year-old incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against 45-year-old right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro — will advance to a run-off on Oct. 25.
在投票前，个人和政府财政状况是巴西选民和投资者最关心的问题，投资者将密切关注政府8月的债务总额、预算收支平衡、债务占GDP比率。
Preceding the vote, both personal and government finances are front of mind for Brazil’s electorate as well as investors, who’ll be looking closely at the government’s August debt totals, budget balances, debt-to-GDP ratios.
拉丁美洲最大经济体还将发布经常账户、外国直接投资、放贷、失业和就业创造等报告，以及央行的市场解读。
Latin America’s No. 1 economy will also post reports on the current account, foreign direct investment, lending, unemployment and job creation along with the central bank’s market readout.
本周智利报告的重点将是8月经济活动。7月下滑1.7%很大程度上归因于致命暴雨导致部分采矿作业停工，但这紧随上半年疲软表现之后。智利央行援引“疲软可能比预期更持久”的担忧，将今年经济增长预测下调至仅0.25%至0.75%之间。
The highlight of the week’s reports from Chile will be August economic activity. July’s -1.7% tumble owed much to deadly rainstorms that halted some mining operations, but followed on from a dismal first half Citing concern that the “weakness may prove more persistent than anticipated,” Chile’s central bank cut its forecast for economic growth this year to between just 0.25% and 0.75%.
在墨西哥，8月份的贸易、贷款、公共收支和汇款数据，以及央行的月度经济学家调查均已提上日程。美国和墨西哥官员于9月23日表示，双方已同意将原定于9月举行的美墨加协定（USMCA）贸易协议修订的第四轮谈判推迟至下个月。
In Mexico, August trade, lending, the public balance and remittances are on the agenda, as well as the central bank’s monthly survey of economists. US and Mexican officials on Sept. 23 said they’d agreed to delay the fourth round of talks on the USMCA trade agreement revision, scheduled for September, until next month.
哥伦比亚央行是下周该地区唯一一家制定利率的主要货币当局，目前的普遍共识是，哥伦比亚共和国银行（BanRep）将连续第二次会议维持12%的利率不变。
Colombia’s central bank is the lone major monetary authority in the region setting interest rates in the coming week, and the early consensus is for BanRep to hold at 12% for a second straight meeting.
尽管8月份的通胀数据高于预期，但分析师认为，比索的升值以及经济活动和国内需求的疲软，将促使该行董事会多数成员按兵不动。
Inflation numbers for August came in higher than expected, though analysts see peso appreciation and weakening activity and domestic demand persuading a majority of the bank’s board to hold fire.
欲了解更多信息，请阅读彭博经济研究关于拉丁美洲的完整“下周展望”。
For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America