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中国如何试图改变大国的含义How China is seeking to transform the meaning of great power

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随着中国在许多领域成为美国势均力敌的竞争者,一个越来越常被问到的问题浮现:中国是否已成为超级大国?然而,这一问题或许建立在一种属于另一个时代的权力定义之上。

As China has emerged as a peer competitor to the United States in many areas, an increasingly familiar question is whether it has become a superpower. The question, however, may rest on a definition of power that belongs to another era.

中国拥有许多传统上与大国相联系的属性:人口众多、幅员辽阔、经济体量庞大、科技能力先进且军事实力不断增强。然而,北京将中国称为“主要国家”,而非“大国”或“超级大国”。例如,其关于全球治理的白皮书将中国定位为倡导建立更加公正合理的国际秩序的主要国家。

China possesses many attributes traditionally associated with great powers: a large population, vast territory, a major economy, advanced technological capabilities and growing military strength. Yet Beijing describes China as a “major country” rather than a “great power” or “superpower”. Its white paper on global governance, for example, presents China as a major country advocating a more just and equitable international order. It reflects a different conception of what power is for, and perhaps what constitutes responsible power in the 21st century.

这反映出对权力用途的另一种理解,也可能反映出对21世纪何为负责任 Powers 的另一种界定。

The term “superpower” dates from the second world war. In his 1944 book The Super-Powers: The United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union – Their Responsibility for Peace, American political scientist William T.R. Fox identified the three as a new category of states whose military and geopolitical capabilities gave them an exceptional role in shaping the post-war order.

“超级大国”一词可追溯至第二次世界大战。1944年,美国政治学家威廉·T·R·福克斯在《超级大国:美国、英国和苏联——它们对和平的责任》一书中,将这三国界定为一类新兴国家,其军事和地缘政治能力使其在塑造战后秩序方面发挥特殊作用。

The term “superpower” dates from the second world war. In his 1944 book The Super-Powers: The United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union – Their Responsibility for Peace, American political scientist William T.R. Fox identified the three as a new category of states whose military and geopolitical capabilities gave them an exceptional role in shaping the post-war order.

在各主要战区调动并持续维持武装力量的能力,以及海外基地和广泛地缘政治影响力的支撑,是新型超级大国的一项鲜明特征。福克斯的论点还包含一项重要含义:拥有这种非凡能力的国家,将对维护和平承担非凡的责任。

The ability to move and sustain armed forces across major theatres of war, supported by overseas bases and extensive geopolitical reach, was a defining attribute of the new superpowers. Fox’s argument also carried an important implication: those possessing such exceptional capabilities would bear an exceptional responsibility for preserving peace. That concept remains relevant. Military power, strategic reach and the ability to deter or defeat adversaries continue to shape international politics. But they no longer exhaust the sources of national power.

这一概念仍具有现实意义。军事力量、战略延伸能力以及威慑或击败对手的能力,继续塑造国际政治。但这些已不再是国家力量的全部来源。

Over the past eight decades, economic interdependence, global supply chains, technology, finance and industrial capacity have become increasingly important instruments of geopolitical influence. Power can also arise from the ability to produce critical goods, control strategically important technologies, withstand economic pressure or impose costs on an adversary through disruption of commercial networks.

过去八十年间,经济相互依存、全球供应链、技术、金融和产业能力已成为地缘政治影响力日益重要的工具。掌握关键商品生产能力、控制战略性重要技术、抵御经济施压,或通过破坏商业网络向对手施加成本,同样能转化为权力。这也是过去十年经验难以单纯用军事力量定义来概括的原因之一。

Over the past eight decades, economic interdependence, global supply chains, technology, finance and industrial capacity have become increasingly important instruments of geopolitical influence. Power can also arise from the ability to produce critical goods, control strategically important technologies, withstand economic pressure or impose costs on an adversary through disruption of commercial networks. This is one reason the experience of the past decade is difficult to fit neatly into a purely military definition of power.

中美在贸易和技术领域的对抗提供了一个例证。在去年的关税升级中,中国的回应不仅限于对等关税,还采取了涉及关键矿产等其拥有显著杠杆作用领域的措施。随后的谈判显示了世界两大经济体之间经济相互依存的程度。任何一方都无法单纯将对方视为外部对手而不付出重大代价。

The US-China confrontation over trade and technology offers one illustration. During last year’s tariff escalation, China responded not simply with matching tariffs but with measures affecting critical minerals and other areas in which it possesses substantial leverage. The subsequent negotiations showed the degree of economic interdependence between the world’s two largest economies. Neither side could treat the other simply as an external adversary without incurring significant costs.

教训不在于经济力量取代了军事力量,而在于两者日益交织。一个拥有强大武装力量的国家,仍可能因工业基础、供应链、财政或持久对抗能力的弱点而受到制约。反之,一个不具备同等军事投送能力的国家,凭借其在战略性重要经济网络中的地位,也能获得实质性的议价能力。

The lesson is not that economic power has replaced military power. Rather, the two have become increasingly intertwined. A country with a formidable armed force may nevertheless be constrained by weaknesses in its industrial base, supply chains, finances or ability to sustain a prolonged confrontation. Conversely, a state without comparable military reach can acquire substantial bargaining power from its position in strategically important economic networks.

例如,霍尔木兹海峡持续的战略重要性,说明了地理和非对称能力如何赋予地区大国杠杆作用,使其能影响拥有大得多军事资源的行为体。军事优势并不自动转化为无限的政治行动自由。

The continuing strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, for example, illustrates how geography and asymmetric capabilities can give a regional power leverage over actors with vastly greater military resources. Military superiority does not automatically translate into unlimited political freedom of action.

这引出了一个更宏大的问题:21世纪的大国,是否应仅以支配他国的能力来定义,而不应以其为国际体系的稳定与发展做出贡献的能力来定义?

This raises a broader question: should a 21st-century great power be defined only by the ability to dominate other states, or also by its capacity to contribute to the stability and development of the international system?

中国的回答日益明确。其外交辞令强调所谓的“大国”角色,将主权、多边主义、国际法、发展以及以人民为中心的理念列为其所倡导全球治理的原则。其白皮书将全球治理倡议呈现为构建更加公正合理国际体系的努力,并强调多边合作和以联合国为核心的国际秩序的重要性。

China’s answer is increasingly explicit. Its diplomatic language emphasises what it calls a “major country” role, with sovereignty, multilateralism, international law, development and a people-centred approach among the principles it associates with global governance. Its white paper presents the Global Governance Initiative as an effort to build a more just and equitable international system and stresses the importance of multilateral cooperation and the UN-centred international order.

“超级大国”的概念传统上描述的是能力的非凡集中。相比之下,“负责任大国”的概念则更强调这些能力如何被运用。

The concept of a “superpower” traditionally describes an exceptional concentration of capabilities. The concept of a “responsible major country”, by contrast, puts greater emphasis on how those capabilities are used.

这一区分有其历史逻辑。中国的治国经验形成了一种政治传统,将稳定、秩序和民生福祉视为衡量政绩的重要标尺。当代领导人已将该传统的要素适配至现代发展观和国际治理观中。其官方话语日益以发展、合作与解决问题来阐释中国的国际角色,而非正式的支配。

There is a historical logic to this distinction. China’s experience of statecraft has produced a political tradition in which stability, order and people’s welfare are important measures of performance. Contemporary leaders have adapted elements of that tradition to a modern conception of development and international governance. Its official discourse increasingly presents China’s international role in terms of development, cooperation and problem-solving, rather than formal domination.

这并不意味着中国拒斥权力。相反,其经济与技术崛起、军事现代化及日益增长的外交影响力,使北京拥有了塑造国际结果的大幅增强的能力。更有意思的问题是,中国如何选择来概念化并部署这种能力。

This does not mean China rejects power. On the contrary, its economic and technological rise, military modernisation and growing diplomatic reach have given Beijing considerably greater capacity to shape international outcomes. The more interesting question is how China chooses to conceptualise and deploy that capacity.

“超级大国”与“负责任大国”之间的区分,指向国际政治中一场更深刻的转型。投射军事力量的能力仍是实力的关键组成部分,但它日益只是其中一个组成部分。产业韧性、技术能力、经济关系、对关键供应链的控制力,以及提供国际公共产品的能力,也都可能影响各国可供选择的道路。

The distinction between “superpower” and “responsible major country” points to a larger transformation in international politics. The ability to project military force remains a crucial component of power, but it is increasingly only one component. Industrial resilience, technological capacity, economic relationships, control of critical supply chains and the ability to provide international public goods can also shape the choices available to states.

福克斯1944年的洞见是,非凡的力量伴随着非凡的责任。80年后,非凡力量本身的性质或许正在发生变化。

Fox’s 1944 insight was that extraordinary power carries extraordinary responsibility. Eighty years later, the nature of extraordinary power itself may be changing.

对中国而言,问题或许不在于它能否满足超级大国的旧有定义,而在于它能否证明:一个大国可以施加影响,而无需将支配确立为国际关系的组织原则。

The question for China may not be whether it can satisfy an old definition of superpower. It is whether it can show that a major power can exercise influence without making domination the organising principle of international relations.

这将不只是术语上的改变。它将对福克斯1944年提出的问题给出另一个答案:世界上最强大的国家应当如何运用自己的力量?

That would amount to more than a change in terminology. It would be a different answer to the question Fox posed in 1944: what should the world’s most powerful countries do with their power?