参议院共和党的民调专家周六在向共和党捐赠者和操盘手表示他们可能在11月的中期选举中扩大多数派优势后，遭到了与会者的难以置信，消息人士向Axios透露。
A pollster for Senate Republicans was met with disbelief on Saturday after telling GOP donors and operatives that they could grow their majority in November's midterm elections sources tell Axios.
为何重要"妄想症，"一位出席全国共和党参议员竞选委员会（NRSC）在佐治亚州海岛举行的秋季闭门会议的与会者在听完民调专家埃里克·伊弗森的演讲后告诉Axios。"气氛不太好，"另一位与会者说。
Why it matters "Delusional," one attendee at the National Republican Senatorial Committee's Sea Island retreat in Georgia told Axios after the presentation by the pollster, Erik Iverson. "The mood is not good," said another.
- "我认为大多数来这儿的与会者在政治上都很敏锐，对共和党面临的逆风有着现实的认识，"第三位与会者表示。
• "I think most attendees down here are politically astute and realistic about the headwinds Republicans face," said a third.
- 第四位与会者形容会议上的谈话是共和党人讽刺地互相说"我们在赢"和"一切都好"。
• A fourth attendee described conversations at the event as Republicans sarcastically telling each other "we're winning" and "everything's good."
- 海岛秋季闭门会是NRSC每个周期的主要捐赠者活动，吸引了大额捐赠者、参议员及其高级幕僚。
• The Sea Island fall retreat is a major donor event for the NRSC each cycle, attracting big-dollar donors, senators and their senior staff.
细节消息人士称，曾任蒙大拿州共和党主席的伊弗森建议共和党在中期选举后净增一席，但未提供各州层面的具体实现路径。
The details Iverson, a former Montana Republican Party chair, suggested that Republicans could net gain one seat in the Senate after the midterms, but did not provide a state-by-state explanation for how they would do so, sources said.
- 现场另一位消息人士称，伊弗森的言论是在回答关于2022年中期选举的提问时作出的，当时尽管前总统拜登民调数字惨淡，参议院民主党人仍净增一席。
• Another source in the room said Iverson's comments were in the context of a question about the 2022 midterms, when Senate Democrats picked up a seat despite former President Biden's poor polling numbers.
- 该消息人士称，当一位听众问这是否意味着共和党也会赢得一席时，现场有人哄堂大笑。
• Some in the room laughed when a member of the audience asked if it meant Republicans would also pick up a seat, the source said.
他怎么说："我对与会者说，我认为所有共和党现任参议员都能保住席位，因为我们有优秀的候选人且资金充足，"伊弗森告诉Axios。
What he's saying: "I told attendees that I think all incumbent Republican Senators will hold their seats because we have good candidates who are well funded," Iverson told Axios.
- "我还指出，2022年拜登总统的形象在每一个关键参议院摇摆州的都高出两位数，但民主党人仍然赢得了一席。信息是让大家保持信心，"他补充道。
• "And I pointed out that in 2022 President Biden's image was double digits under water in every single swing Senate seat yet Democrats still gained a seat. The message was for folks to keep their heads up," he added.
- 根据Axios获得的幻灯片，伊弗森还分享了关于汽油价格和数据中心的制胜政治信息。
• Iverson also shared winning political messages on gas prices and data centers, according to slides obtained by Axios.
- 其中包括：如果满足社区要求（如支付所有能源成本、不对当地水资源造成负面影响），60%的摇摆选民会考虑支持在其所在州建设新数据中心。
• It included that 60% of swing voters would consider supporting new data centers in their state if they met community requirements such as paying all their energy costs and not negatively affecting local water supplies. Between the lines
深度解读与会者质疑为何未获得各选情的完整更新。
Attendees questioned why they were not given a full update on each race.
- 消息人士指出，出人意料地激烈的得克萨斯州竞选根本未被提及。
• The surprisingly competitive Texas race was not discussed at all, some sources noted.
聚焦细节：周六的其他发言人包括全国共和党参议员委员会（NRSC）主席蒂姆·斯科特（R-南卡罗来纳州）、参议员雪莱·摩尔·卡皮托（R-西弗吉尼亚州）、参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（R-南达科他州）以及NRSC政治总监布伦丹·贾斯珀斯。
Zoom in: Other speakers on Saturday included NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W. Va.), Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and NRSC political director Brendan Jaspers.
- 还有一场小组讨论，参与者包括参议员伯尼·莫雷诺（R-俄亥俄州）以及参议院候选人朱莉娅·莱特洛（路易斯安那州）、凯文·赫恩（俄克拉荷马州）、安迪·巴尔（肯塔基州）和哈丽特·哈格曼（怀俄明州）。
• There was also a panel with Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Senate candidates Julia Letlow (Louisiana), Kevin Hern (Oklahoma), Andy Barr (Kentucky) and Harriet Hageman (Wyoming). The big picture
大局观资深参议院共和党人公开承认，他们在11月面临艰难的选情版图
Top Senate Republicans openly acknowledge they face a tough map in November
- 参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（R-南达科他州）周三告诉Axios，这是一个“艰难的环境”。
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Axios on Wednesday that it's a "tough environment."
- 正如Axios周四独家披露，NRSC本身正在向捐赠者募集900万美元，以在阿拉斯加、爱荷华和俄亥俄三个州提供帮助——特朗普总统在2024年在这三个州均以两位数优势获胜。
• The NRSC itself is asking donors for $9 million to help in three states — Alaska, Iowa and Ohio — where President Trump won by double digits in 2024, as Axios scooped on Thursday.