彭博新闻社报道，在北京一心一意聚焦人工智能的阴影下，中国消费股陷入了“失去的十年”。
By Bloomberg News Under the shadow of Beijing’s single-minded focus on artificial intelligence, China’s consumer stocks are trapped in a lost decade.
该行业与高飞的科技板块形成了鲜明对比。MSCI中国消费品子指数在过去六个月暴跌约18%，接近10年低点，而AI权重较大的科技指数飙升至2016年水平的两倍多。在最新财报季，MSCI指数中的消费必需品企业利润未达预期的比例接近50%。
The industry is showing a stark contrast with the high-flying tech sector. MSCI China’s consumer goods sub-indexes plunged roughly 18% over the past six months to near 10-year lows, while the AI-heavy technology gauge surged to more than double its 2016 level. During the latest earnings season, consumer staples firms in the MSCI gauge missed profit expectations by nearly 50%.
这种颓势反映了中国经济的失衡，北京对科技霸权的追求推动了出口繁荣，并将资金引入AI企业，但对内需的溢出效应有限。8月社零总额仅微增0.4%，且几乎没有迹象表明投资者对该板块的悲观情绪会在黄金周假期后缓解——这是旅游和消费的关键时期。
The malaise reflects China’s lopsided economy, where Beijing’s drive for tech supremacy has fueled an export boom and funneled capital into AI firms with limited spillover to domestic demand. August retail sales crept up just 0.4%, and there are few signs that investor pessimism toward the sector will ease after the Golden Week holiday — a crucial period for travel and spending.
上海翡翠石投资管理有限公司基金经理陈石表示：“今夏的数据证伪了消费存在任何复苏的说法，并确认了仍是单边押注出口。从市场角度看，这造成了挤出效应。投资者越来越集中于AI受益股，而消费等板块遭到无差别抛售。”中国经济动能依然疲弱，短期内无刺激政策在望这种低迷情绪标志着与疫情前岁月的戏剧性逆转，当时中国中产阶级的崛起被誉为全球最引人注目的增长故事之一。
“Data this summer has disproved that there is any recovery in spending, and affirms that it still is a one-way bet on exports,” said Chen Shi, fund manager at Shanghai Jade Stone Investment Management Co. “From a market perspective, that has created a crowding-out effect. Investors have become increasingly concentrated in AI beneficiaries, while sectors such as consumption have been sold indiscriminately.” READ: Chinese Economic Momentum Stays Weak With No Stimulus in Sight The sour mood marks a dramatic reversal from the pre-pandemic years, when the rise of China’s middle class was celebrated as one of the world’s most compelling growth stories.
随着长期房地产低迷、收入增长乏力和消费信心危机，这种乐观情绪几乎完全消散，使该板块成为亏损的赌注。多年来为提振房地产销售——消费的关键支柱——而逐步出台的政策支持收效甚微。最新数据显示房价跌势延续。
That optimism has all but evaporated as a protracted property slump, sluggish income growth and a crisis of consumer confidence have made the sector a losing bet. A drip feed of policy support over the years to revive housing sales — a key pillar for spending — has fallen short. The latest data showed property prices extending their slide.
陈某表示，当局可通过稳定资产价格、创造更强的工资增长前景以及提高最低收入等措施重塑消费者信心，并补充称任何实质性改善都可能是渐进的。
Authorities could rebuild consumer confidence through measures from stabilizing asset prices to creating stronger wage growth prospects and raising minimum income, Chen said, adding that any meaningful improvement will likely be be gradual.
疲软的消费需求成为最新财报季的反复主题。舍得酒业将该行业描述为处于“深度调整”期，而百货运营商南京中央商场则警示客流放缓和支出减少。头部白酒企业贵州茅台上半年净利润下滑。
Weak consumer demand emerged as a recurring theme during the latest earnings season. Shede Spirits Co. described the sector as being in a “deep adjustment,” while department store operator Nanjing Central Emporium flagged softer visitor traffic and lower spending. Top liquor maker Kweichow Moutai Co.’s first-half net profit dropped.
彭博汇编的数据显示，MSCI中国指数中消费必需品企业的盈利在最新季度较预期低47%，而生产可选消费品的企业低近10%。相比之下，工业和科技公司带来了超预期惊喜。
Earnings for consumer staples firms in the MSCI China gauge fell 47% short of expectations in the latest season, while those producing discretionary goods missed by nearly 10%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In contrast, industrial and tech companies delivered upside surprises.
美国银行亚太股票策略主管吴雯表示，该行业的困境正在全球投资者避开消费股、转而青睐AI投资热潮受益者的背景下展开。她称，对中国而言，包括更严格执行税收规则在内的国内政策逆风，也给家庭和企业带来了更重的财务负担。
The sector’s woes are unfolding against a global backdrop in which investors have shunned consumer shares for beneficiaries of the AI investment boom, according to Winnie Wu, head of Asia Pacific equity strategy at Bank of America. For China, domestic policy headwinds including tighter tax rule enforcements also create a heavier financial burden for both households and businesses, she said.
这种分化的市场促使一些重仓消费股的知名中国主动管理基金转向AI股票。彭博汇编的数据显示，交易所交易基金（ETF）中也出现了同样的趋势，流入科技基金的资金日益超过流向消费品基金的资金。
The bifurcated market has prompted some high-profile, actively managed Chinese funds with heavy exposure to consumer names to pivot to AI stocks. The same trend is playing out among exchange-traded funds, where inflows into tech funds have increasingly eclipsed those targeting consumer products, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
诚然，如果市场波动回归，正如7月全球科技股暴跌期间短暂出现的那样，低迷的估值和轻仓定位可能重燃对消费股的兴趣。MSCI中国可选消费和消费必需品指数分别按约11倍和13倍的前向市盈率交易，远低于信息技术指数的21倍。
To be sure, depressed valuations and light positioning may rekindle interest in consumer shares if market volatility returns, as was briefly seen during July’s global tech rout. MSCI China’s consumer discretionary and staples gauges trade at around 11 and 13 times their forward earnings estimates, respectively, well below 21 for the info tech index.
尽管如此，北京不愿采取激进刺激措施以鼓励更多消费支出，短期内仍可能拖累该板块。
Still, Beijing’s reluctance to use aggressive stimulus to encourage more consumer spending will likely weigh on the sector for now.
“中国消费股在长期经济放缓中缺乏有力催化剂，”北京投资银行承安证券董事沈萌表示。“从长期来看，我看好科技板块有更强的增长机会，而消费股恐将继续夹缝求生，面临基本面疲软与资金外流的双重挤压。”
“China’s consumer stocks lack a compelling catalyst amid a protracted economic slowdown,” said Shen Meng, director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co. “In the long term, I see stronger growth opportunities in technology, while consumer shares will likely remain caught between weak fundamentals and capital flowing elsewhere.”