费城讯——新加坡外长维文在一场关于美中竞争的讨论中表示，中国的人工智能成功案例常因被指不公平地获得中国政府资助而在西方受到批评，但这反映了中国决心不再重蹈150年前的战略失误。
PHILADELPHIA - China’s artificial intelligence success story, often criticised in the West for being unfairly underwritten by the Chinese government, reflects the country’s resolve not to repeat a strategic mistake made 150 years ago, said Singapore’s Foreign Minister Balakrishnan during a discussion on US-China rivalry.
维文在9月25日与前澳大利亚总理陆克文的对话中指出，中国错过了工业革命，但不会再犯同样的错误。陆克文现任纽约亚洲协会全球总裁兼首席执行官。
China missed the industrial revolution but it won’t make the same mistake twice, said Balakrishnan during a Sept 25 conversation with former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd, who is now the global president and chief executive of Asia Society in New York.
维文在这场长达一小时的交流中挑战了美国看待与中国竞争的方式，他说：“因为错过了工业革命，中国经历了一个多世纪的屈辱和不平等条约。这一次，中国绝无意再次错失良机。”
“Because China missed it, China underwent a century plus of humiliation and unequal treaties. This time, China has absolutely no intention of missing it again,” Balakrishnan said in an hour-long exchange during which he challenged how the US seizes the competition from China.
他说：“你需要明白，这不仅仅是与美国竞争、争当老大或老二的问题，我这是在推测中国的动机，但中国认为：‘这是我的机会，我的高光时刻。凭什么有人要挡道，尤其是当我拥有人才、拥有智力资源？’”他说：“所以从中国的角度来看，‘我不会重蹈一百五十年前的战略覆辙。这是战略机遇，我不想让任何人挡道。我所要求的只是公平竞争的环境、获取技术的渠道，以及尽快实现发展’。”
“You need to understand it is not just a matter of competition with America, being number one or number two, and I am projecting into China’s motivations, but China says: ‘this is my turn, my time in the sunshine. Why should anyone get in the way, especially when I have the human talent, the brain power?’,” he said. “So from China’s perspective, ‘I am not going to make the strategic mistake made a century and a half ago. This is a strategic opportunity and I do not want anyone to get in my way. And all I am asking for is a level playing field, and access to technology, and to get ahead as quickly as I can’,” he said.
他表示，这种激烈的竞争与斯普特尼克时代美苏之间的较量截然不同，因为当今的超级大国依赖共享的全球技术栈和智力资源，而非封闭的孤立生态系统。
Their intense competition is sharply different from the Sputnik-era contest between the US and the Soviet Union, he said, because today’s superpowers rely on a shared global technological stack and brainpower rather than isolated ecosystems.
“有趣的是，AI的数学和计算基础，即美国、中国以及其他国家所依赖的基石，本质上是同一个技术栈。数学家、技术、机器都是一样的，”巴拉克里希南说。
“What is interesting is that the mathematical and computational basis for AI, the foundations that both America, China, and the rest of us are operating on, is essentially the same stack. The mathematicians, the techniques, the machines are the same,” Balakrishnan said.
“正因为是这个共同的技术栈，且一直保持开放和竞争，加速率才如此惊人，”他说。拉德指出，中国的成功建立在“不公平的竞争环境”之上。
“And because it is the common stack and it has been open and competitive, the rate of acceleration has been dramatic,” he said.
“在中国行之有效的是……国家驱动的科技产业战略投资，加上净出口，这变得不可持续，”他说，并指出中国疲弱的国内消费及其依赖出口拉动增长，而这些出口淹没了其他经济体。
Rudd pointed out that China was building its success on an “unlevel playing field”. “What is working in China is… state-driven investment in its techno-industrial strategy, plus net exports, and this becomes unsustainable,” he said, pointing at China’s weak domestic consumption and its reliance for growth on exports that have flooded other economies.
巴拉克里希南表示，补贴的使用并不能完全解释中国的AI实力，推动中国AI公司前进的还有残酷的国内竞争，这导致了廉价高效的中国AI模型的诞生。
Balakrishnan said the use of subsidies did not fully explain the country’s AI prowess and what also eggs on the Chinese AI companies is the cut throat domestic competition which results in the creation of cheap and efficient Chinese AI models.
“假设所有直接或隐性补贴都被取消。你认为这会自动消除中国在学术、科学、技术方面的优势吗？我不这么认为。“你认为国内的恶性竞争会消失吗？不会。
“Let us assume all subsidies, direct or implicit, are removed. Do you think that would automatically remove the academic, scientific, technological edge of China? I do not believe so.
“简单的答案是归咎于补贴，但我想说还有更多因素在起作用，我们最好弄清这种竞争优势的来源是什么，而且它是真实存在的，”他说。
“Do you think that the hyper competition domestically is going to disappear? It is not. “The easy answer is (to) just blame it on subsidy, but I am saying there is something more going on than that, and we better understand what that source of competitive advantage is, and it is real,” he said.
拉德接受了反驳，但表示两种力量同时在起作用——中国的科学才华以及导致全球产能过剩并引发美欧政治反弹的补贴。
Rudd accepted the pushback but said both forces were at work – China’s scientific brilliance as well as its subsidies which lead to global overcapacity and set off a political backlash in the US and Europe.
“他们通过有意识的产业战略、补贴来支撑其模式，这在西方引发了政治反弹，因此美国发动了关税战并减少了贸易顺差，欧洲也即将做出类似反应，”拉德说。
“They are applying through conscious industrial strategy, subsidies, which underpin their model, which is producing political blowback here, hence the tariff war from the US and the reduction in the trade surplus of America, and on the cusp of bringing about a similar reaction in Europe,” Rudd said.
在人工智能出现之前，全球经济就存在着根本性的失衡，巴拉克里希南在两人探讨两国经济如何演变时也指出了这一点。中国成为了世界的制造业中心，而美国则从廉价消费品和低利率中获益，这些低利率由中国的贸易顺差投资美国国库券所支撑。
A fundamental imbalance existed in the global economy prior to AI, Balakrishnan also pointed out as the two discussed how the two economies had evolved. China became the world’s manufacturing hub, while the US benefited from cheap consumer goods and low interest rates funded by Chinese trade surpluses that were invested in US treasury bills.
在西方，历史上较高的生产率带来了更高的工资，从而造就了庞大的中产阶级，他们消费产品并推动了更多的经济增长。
A fundamental imbalance existed in the global economy prior to AI, Balakrishnan also pointed out as the two discussed how the two economies had evolved. China became the world’s manufacturing hub, while the US benefited from cheap consumer goods and low interest rates funded by Chinese trade surpluses that were invested in US treasury bills.
但即将到来的AI经济可能不会遵循这一相同轨迹，因为一家公司可以在不雇佣数千名工人、不提高工资的情况下，获得巨大的生产率收益。
In the West, higher productivity historically led to higher wages that created a massive middle class which consumed products and fueled more economic growth. But the coming AI economy may not follow this same trajectory, since a company can reap huge productivity gains without hiring thousands of workers or raising wages.
对中国而言，困境更为严峻，人口老龄化和萎缩的压力促使北京迅速部署AI以保持竞争力。然而，行动过快可能会因加剧青年失业而导致社会动荡。
The bind is worse for China, where the pressure of an ageing and shrinking population creates an incentive for Beijing to deploy AI rapidly to remain competitive. However, going too fast could lead to social unrest by worsening youth unemployment.
他说，美国也有自己的问题，包括数万亿美元的赤字，这是其产业政策和贸易顺差的结果。但当美国发挥其长期优势——比任何其他国家都更快地将新科学转化为盈利产品时，它也能创造惊喜。
America has its own problems, he said, including deficits of trillions of dollars which are a result of its industrial policy and trade surpluses. But it is capable of surprises when it leans into its longstanding strength: turning new science into profitable products faster than anyone else.
“这就是为什么，至少从新加坡的角度来看，我们不认为美国已经出局。它仍然有能力变戏法般地化险为夷，”他说。
“That is why, at least from Singapore’s perspective, we do not count America out. It is still capable of pulling a rabbit out of the hat,” he said.
在9月26日结束纽约之行（出席联合国大会）时接受新加坡媒体采访时，巴拉克里希南表示，与陆克文的对话是为了理解一个正在被美中关系及其在AI领域的竞争重塑的世界。
In an interview with the Singapore media on Sept 26 as he concluded his trip to New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly, Balakrishnan said the exchange with Rudd was an effort at understanding a world being reshaped by the US-China relationship and their rivalry on AI.
“他逼问，我回应……目的是磨砺我们的视角，”巴拉克里希南说。
“He pushed, I pushed back… the objective is to sharpen our perspectives,” Balakrishnan said.
“观看那场对话的人不必同意陆克文或我的观点，但如果我们成功地让你们思考，那我们就成功了，”他说。
“The people who watch that conversation don’t have to agree with Kevin or me, but if we have succeeded in making you think, then we have succeeded,” he said.