华沙北部不远处，沿着维斯瓦河，伪装过的导弹发射器驶过安静的乔斯努夫村。
A short distance north from Warsaw along the Vistula river, camouflaged missile launchers roll through the quiet village of Czosnów.
就在两年前，它们的目的地——一个本月刚刚启用的高科技武器设施——还是一片玉米地。如今，随着波兰以发达国家中最快的速度之一推高国防投资，这个乡村地点已在欧洲应对俄罗斯侵略和美国脱离的背景下完成了蜕变。
As recently as two years ago, their destination – a hi-tech weapons facility opened this month – had been a cornfield. Now, as Poland drives up defence investment at one of the fastest rates in the developed world, this rural spot has been transformed amid Europe’s response to Russian aggression and US disengagement.
“每个人都不得不加快两倍速度来满足波兰的需求，”欧洲跨国军工集团MBDA的波兰子公司MBDA Polska总经理吉姆·普赖斯表示。这位常驻英国的前皇家海军陆战队员说，波兰正从进口武器转向在本土制造武器。
“Everyone has had to move twice as fast to meet the Polish needs,” says Jim Price, the managing director of MBDA Polska, the local subsidiary of the European multinational arms group. Based in the UK, the former Royal Marine says Poland is shifting from importing its weapons to manufacturing them at home.
“当清楚地认识到需要保卫北约东翼、一旦发生战争时，他们需要能在眨眼间完成部署。因此我们决定在波兰投资建厂。我们必须壮大我们的波兰子公司——这意味着波兰就业岗位。”波兰的国防预算以惊人的速度增长。自弗拉基米尔·普京下令俄军进入乌克兰近五年来，国防开支占波兰国内生产总值（GDP）的比重已从2.2%翻倍多，达到今年的4.8%。按现金计算，这相当于530亿美元（398亿英镑），在欧盟中仅次于德国、法国和意大利，位居第四。
“When it became clear there is a need to defend Nato’s eastern flank, in the event of a war itself, they needed to be able to do things in the blink of an eye. So we decided to invest in-the country to create a facility. We had to build up our Polish subsidiary – and that means Polish jobs.” Poland’s defence budget has grown at a blistering pace. Since Vladimir Putin ordered Russian troops into Ukraine almost five years ago, spending as a share of Polish gross domestic product (GDP ) has more than doubled from 2.2% to 4.8% this year. In cash terms, this equates to $53bn (£39.8bn), the fourth-highest in the EU after Germany, France and Italy.
华沙的关注点显然集中在俄罗斯即将对北约决心进行考验的风险上。然而，还有另一个动机：发展经济。
Attention in Warsaw is clearly focused on the risk of an imminent Russian test of Nato resolve. However, there is also another motive: growing the economy.
在华沙办公室隔音、气闸式的门后，波兰副外长马尔钦·博萨基表示，俄罗斯的侵略行为深刻影响着波兰政府的经济发展计划及与欧盟和北约盟友的合作。
Inside the soundproofed, airlock-style doors enclosing his office in Warsaw, Marcin Bosacki, Poland’s deputy foreign minister, says Russian aggression is heavily influencing the Polish government’s plans for economic development and cooperation with EU and Nato allies.
“这显然有利于波兰的安全；有利于波兰的国防，也有利于波兰经济，”他说。
“[It] is clearly benefiting Polish security; Polish defence, and the Polish economy as well,” he says.
博萨基补充道，在追求军事准备的过程中强化经济联系，将阻止普京（“一位传统的俄罗斯帝国主义者”）攻击北约。
Strengthening economic ties in the pursuit of military readiness would discourage Putin (“a traditional Russian imperialist”) from attacking Nato, Bosacki adds.
“普京唯一听得懂的就是团结与力量。因此，我们越团结、越强大，俄罗斯对北约成员国发动更多侵略性挑衅的可能性就越小。”人们仍寄希望于外交解决。本月，特朗普的特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳在莫斯科与普京、在基辅与乌克兰总统泽连斯基举行了会谈。下个月，阿布扎比将举行进一步谈判。
“The only thing which Putin understands is solidarity and power. And so the more we are united and strong, the less likely the outcome of more aggressive Russian provocations against Nato member states is.” Hope remains for a diplomatic solution. This month, Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held talks in Moscow with Putin and in Kyiv with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Next month, further negotiations are scheduled in Abu Dhabi.
然而，外交消息人士认为俄罗斯不太可能让步——这使得北约展示军事准备至关重要。
“The only thing which Putin understands is solidarity and power. And so the more we are united and strong, the less likely the outcome of more aggressive Russian provocations against Nato member states is.” Hope remains for a diplomatic solution. This month, Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held talks in Moscow with Putin and in Kyiv with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Next month, further negotiations are scheduled in Abu Dhabi.
历史表明，国防与经济紧密交织。统计学家最初设计GDP这一指标，是为了应对1930年代的大萧条和战时规划的需求，以衡量经济的产能。
However, diplomatic sources believe Russia is unlikely to cede ground – rendering Nato’s demonstrations of military readiness critical. History shows defence and economics are closely intertwined. Statisticians first devised GDP as a metric in response to the 1930s Great Depression and needs of wartime planning to gauge the capacity of an economy.
自从团结工会运动在格但斯克造船厂罢工中兴起、为近四十年前波兰从共产主义转型铺平道路以来，波兰经历了一场经济奇迹。生活水平从90年代中期欧盟平均水平的40%跃升至去年的81%。
Poland has been through an economic miracle since the Solidarność (solidarity) movement that arose from the Gdańsk shipyard strikes paved the way for its transition from communism almost four decades ago. Living standards have shot up from 40% of the EU average in the mid-1990s to 81% last year.
2004年加入欧盟并从布鲁塞尔获得追赶基金——这些资金用于新建公路、铁路和其他提高生产力的基础设施——也起到了帮助作用。去年年度产值超过1万亿美元（7550亿英镑），尽管伊朗战争导致全球逆风，波兰仍以第二季度3.9%的年化增长率跻身欧盟增长最快的国家之列。然而，波兰的国防繁荣并非零成本。经济发展也未能使其避免政治极化。
Joining the EU in 2004 and securing catch-up funds from Brussels – which was spent on new roads, railways, and other productivity-enhancing infrastructure – also helped. Annual output surpassed $1tn (£755bn) last year, with Poland among the fastest-growing EU countries at an annualised rate of 3.9% in the second quarter despite the global headwinds caused by the Iran war However, Poland’s defence boom is not cost-free. Nor has economic development helped it avoid political polarisation.
不断上涨的军费预算是波兰预计明年将在欧盟中拥有最大财政赤字的原因之一，赤字率达GDP的7.1%。上周，穆迪因明显缺乏重建财政缓冲的意愿，将该国长期主权信用评级下调至2002年以来的最低水平。
The rising military budget is among the reasons why Poland is predicted to run the biggest fiscal deficit in the EU next year, at 7.1% of GDP. Last week, Moody’s downgraded the country’s long-term sovereign credit rating to the lowest level since 2002, amid an apparent lack of willingness to rebuild fiscal buffers.
总部设在华沙的英商银行经济学家莱谢克·孔塞克表示：“这条道路不可持续。你应该问问民众，波兰能否维持其增长故事，以及政客们是否准备好进行调整？”夹在两个大国之间、在有生之年曾两度被征服，波兰人对国家安全感到不安。但尽管在欧盟成员国身份下实现了经济翻身，并从布鲁塞尔获得了数十亿欧元的国防资金，支持欧洲怀疑论政治的声浪依然存在。
Leszek Kąsek, a Warsaw-based economist at ING Bank, said: “This path is not sustainable. You should ask people if Poland can maintain its growth story and whether politicians will be ready to adjust?” Wedged between larger neighbours it has been subjugated twice within living memory, Poles are uneasy about national security. But despite its economic turnaround under EU membership, and as it secures billions of euros in defence funds from Brussels, support for Eurosceptic politics remains.
在明年大选前夕，国家防务、对乌支持以及欧盟关系将成为高度政治化的议题。
Leszek Kąsek, a Warsaw-based economist at ING Bank, said: “This path is not sustainable. You should ask people if Poland can maintain its growth story and whether politicians will be ready to adjust?” Wedged between larger neighbours it has been subjugated twice within living memory, Poles are uneasy about national security. But despite its economic turnaround under EU membership, and as it secures billions of euros in defence funds from Brussels, support for Eurosceptic politics remains.
在华沙外交部大楼外，抗议者挥舞着标语牌，参加由反欧盟及反对支持乌克兰的右翼政客组织的“波兰人要和平”民族主义集会。
In the run-up to the general election next year, the defence of the country, support for and EU relations will be highly politically charged.
在大楼的大理石大厅内，波兰国旗似乎在每一个机会旁边都与北约和欧盟旗帜并列悬挂，博萨茨基表示，关于波兰加入这两个机构获益多寡的分歧首次浮出水面。
Outside the foreign ministry in Warsaw, protesters wave placards in a “Poles for peace” nationalist rally, organised by rightwing politicians opposed to the EU and its support for Ukraine.
今年，得到右翼“和平与正义党”支持的波兰总统卡罗尔·纳夫罗茨基，试图阻止总理唐纳德·图斯克领导的自由派、亲欧盟政府动用欧盟“欧洲安全行动”（Safe）计划批准的440亿欧元（约合380亿英镑）国防投资贷款。
Inside the building’s marble halls, where the Polish flag appears to be positioned next to those of Nato and the EU at almost every opportunity, Bosacki says divisions over the benefits to Poland of membership to both institutions has emerged for the first time. This year, Poland’s president, Karol Nawrocki, who has backing from the rightwing Peace and Justice party, attempted to block the Polish prime minister Donald Tusk’s liberal, pro-EU government from accessing €44bn (£38bn) of defence investment loans approved under the bloc’s security action for Europe (Safe) programme.
“我认为我们的右翼急于重掌大权，什么手段都会使出来，”博萨茨基说。“这是反对派首次反对做一件事——依我之见，也是大多数波兰人的看法，这件事显然有利于波兰的安全、国防和经济。”通过“安全”计划，华沙获得了该贷款项目中单笔最大的拨款。政府承诺将其中近90%投向国内工业——由波兰国有国防集团波兰兵器集团（PGZ）牵头。
“I think our right is so eager to regain power they will use anything,” Bosacki says. “Here for the first time, the opposition was [against doing] something which, in my opinion – and the opinion of the majority of Poles – is clearly benefiting Polish security, Polish defence and the Polish economy as well.” Through Safe, Warsaw secured the largest single disbursement in the loan programme. The government has pledged to channel almost 90% of it to domestic industry – led by Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ), the state-owned defence conglomerate.
然而，在扩充产能的竞赛中，美国军火制造商供应“爱国者”导弹、“艾布拉姆斯”坦克和F-35战斗机，赚得盆满钵满。
“I think our right is so eager to regain power they will use anything,” Bosacki says. “Here for the first time, the opposition was [against doing] something which, in my opinion – and the opinion of the majority of Poles – is clearly benefiting Polish security, Polish defence and the Polish economy as well.” Through Safe, Warsaw secured the largest single disbursement in the loan programme. The government has pledged to channel almost 90% of it to domestic industry – led by Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ), the state-owned defence conglomerate.
今年3月，国际货币基金组织警告称，欧盟国防投资带来的积极经济溢出效应，不一定会惠及那些掏出支票本的政府。
However, in the race to build up capacity, the tills are ringing for US-arms manufacturers supplying Patriot missiles, Abrams tanks and F-35 fighter jets.
不过，华沙在与国际伙伴（包括英国）达成国防协议、建设军事备战能力的同时，也在致力于发展国内制造业基础。
In March, the International Monetary Fund cautioned that the positive economic spillovers from EU defence investment would not necessarily flow for the governments taking out their chequebooks.
英国防务集团巴布科克正与波兰兵器集团合作，助力建造一支新型护卫舰舰队。该项目被称为“Miecznik”（剑鱼）计划，该公司在波罗的海沿岸的格丁尼亚拥有一座造船厂。首舰于今夏由图斯克下水。
However, Warsaw is doing defence deals with international partners, including the UK, to help develop its domestic manufacturing base at the same time as building military readiness.
“从根本上说，波兰必须增加投资。但他们希望以聪明的方式进行投资，”巴布科克波兰区总监、驻华沙的安德烈·马切耶夫斯基表示。
The British defence group Babcock is working with PGZ to help build a fleet of new frigates. Known as the Miecznik, or swordfish, programme, the company has a shipyard at Gdynia on the Baltic coast. The first ship was launched this summer by Tusk.
“我们正在回应这一雄心——这些巨额国防投资将带来更高的性价比，并在长远来看形成这些能力。”英国宇航系统公司正与波兰兵器集团旗下生产弹药和火箭的梅斯科公司合作，在波兰南部卡托维兹附近的老工业腹地建设一座火炮工厂。
“It’s a must for Poland, basically, to invest more. But they want to do it in a smart way,” says Andrzej Maciejewski, Babcock’s country director for Poland, who is based in Warsaw. “We’re addressing this ambition – that these great investments in defence will bring greater value for money and, in the longer run, these capabilities.” BAE Systems is partnering with the PGZ subsidiary Mesko, which makes ammunition and rockets, to build an artillery plant in Poland’s old southern industrial heartlands near Katowice.
到2028年，波兰计划建设三座新的弹药工厂。在8月对Mesko设施的视察中，图斯克表示，2023年的数据显示，波兰仅能生产5000发155毫米炮弹——这是北约标准的火炮弹药。他说：“俄乌前线一天消耗的量就超过这个数。”今年，波兰将产量提升至3万发，目标是在未来两年内达到年产20万发。
By 2028, Poland plans three new munition factories. During a visit to the Mesko facility in August, Tusk said figures for 2023 showed Poland was capable of producing only 5,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition – a Nato-standard artillery shells. “More is used in one day on the Russian-Ukrainian front,” he said. This year, Poland will have increased production to 30,000 rounds, with a goal of 200,000 a year in the next two years.
本月，英国国防备战部长卢克·波拉德访问了Czosnów，出席MBDA设施的开业仪式。波拉德表示，这将有助于支持两国的就业，包括布里斯托尔、斯蒂夫尼奇和博尔顿的岗位。
This month, Luke Pollard, the UK minister for defence readiness, visited Czosnów for the opening of the MBDA facility. Pollard said it would help support jobs in both countries, including in Bristol, Stevenage and Bolton.
尽管如此，英国增加国防投资的步伐较慢。政府承诺将国防开支从去年的GDP的2.3%提高到3%，但尚未明确说明具体如何实现以及时间表。在波兰，有迹象表明其投资热潮开始惠及本地承包商。
Despite this, Britain is increasing defence investment at a slower pace The government has committed to increase spending from 2.3% of GDP last year to 3%, but has not spelled out precisely how or when this will be achieved.
Advanced Protection Systems联合创始人马切伊·克莱姆表示，该公司在格丁尼亚生产反无人机系统，今年员工人数从约150人增加到200人。
In Poland, there are signs its investment spree is beginning to pay off for local contractors. Maciej Klemm, the co-founder of Advanced Protection Systems, which builds counter-drone systems in Gdynia, has increased its headcount from about 150 staff to 200 this year.
随着俄罗斯无人机闯入波兰领空事件增多，APS正参与波兰价值40亿美元的“San”计划，建设一道“反无人机墙”以保卫该国东部侧翼。
Amid growing Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, APS is playing a role in the Warsaw’s $4bn San programme to build an “anti-drone wall” to protect the country’s eastern flank.
克莱姆说：“作为一个国家，我们投入了大量资金，几乎成了这方面的‘标杆’。”他在波兰和英国两地奔波，自2000年代从布里斯托尔大学毕业后，他一直与家人居住在英国，他也道出了波兰近期的经济历程。
“We are spending a lot of money as a nation, and we are almost a poster child for it,” Klemm says. Splitting his time between Poland and the UK, where he still lives with his family after graduating from the University of Bristol in the 2000s, Klemm also sums up Poland’s recent economic history.
“我搬到英国时，正值大批波兰人涌入英国的浪潮。现在脱欧后，那股浪潮部分退去，反向流动。现在，像我们这样的公司以及其他企业正在证明，我们拥有技术人才；我们可以以此为基础，在波兰发展壮大企业。”
“I was moving to Britain at the time there was a big wave of Poles coming over here. Now after Brexit, that wave partly receded and went the other way. Now, companies like ourselves and others are showing we have technical talent; we can build on this, and grow companies in Poland.”