加德满都——尼泊尔的水电发展热潮长期以来一直被视为经济增长和可再生能源的支柱，但8月发生的灾难性洪灾暴露了其脆弱性。
Kathmandu – Nepal’s hydropower boom has long been touted as a cornerstone of economic growth and renewable energy, but the devastating flood in August exposed its vulnerability.
中尼边境发生冰川山体坍塌，引发严重灾害，造成逾1400人死亡、数千人失踪，同时使410兆瓦（约占总发电能力10%）的电力被排除在尼泊尔电力系统之外。
The disaster triggered by a glacial mountain collapse on the China-Nepal border killed more than 1,400 people and left thousands missing — while knocking 410 megawatts (MW), or about 10% of the generation capacity, out of Nepal’s power system.
尼泊尔90%以上的电力来自水电，但河流水电项目遭受严重破坏，令人们随着气候和地质风险加剧而对能源安全产生疑问。
More than 90% of Nepal’s electricity comes from hydropower, but extensive damage to its river projects has prompted questions about its energy security as climate and geological risks intensify.
独立电力生产商协会（IPPAN）高级副主席乌塔姆·布隆·拉马说：“水电一直是国家经济增长的重要驱动力……创造了就业岗位和收入。”
“Hydropower has been a major driving force in growth of the country ... generating jobs and income,” Uttam Bhlon Lama, senior vice president of the Independent Power Producers’ Association (IPPAN), said.
他说：“它曾给人民带来巨大的希望和光明前景。”他补充称，该国如今不得不重新思考大规模建坝热潮。
“It was bringing huge hope and future prospects to the people,” he said, adding that the country would now have to rethink its dam-building spree.
“我们必须做好准备……这就是我们的新常态。”据政府数据，过去十年间，这个喜马拉雅国家的水电发电量增长了四倍以上，达到约4120兆瓦，帮助其近3000万人口中的绝大多数接入电网。
“We have to prepare ... This is our new normal.” Over the past decade, the Himalayan nation has increased hydropower output more than fourfold to about 4,120 megawatts, according to government figures, helping connect nearly all its 30 million people to the grid.
此前，尼泊尔已开始向邻国印度和孟加拉国出口过剩电力，试图将由冰川补给的河流变成创收来源。灾难发生后，当局暂停了电力出口。
The country had previously moved to export surplus electricity to neighboring India and Bangladesh, seeking to turn its glacier-fed rivers into a source of revenue. Authorities suspended electricity exports after the disaster.
水电基础设施遭到严重破坏，凸显了这一战略的风险。在该地区，冰川正在退缩，永久冻土不断融化，极端灾害也愈发难以预测。据政府评估，灾害造成的基础设施损失中，能源部门约占一半。
The major destruction of hydropower infrastructure underscored the risks of that strategy in a region where glaciers are retreating, permafrost is thawing and extreme hazards are becoming harder to predict.
七个水电项目直接受灾，其他多个项目也停止发电，导致全国电网损失410兆瓦电力。
Nepal’s energy sector accounted for about half of the infrastructure damage from the disaster, according to government assessments.
六座正在建设中的水电站也受到了损坏，这些水电站的总装机容量为508兆瓦。
Nepal’s energy sector accounted for about half of the infrastructure damage from the disaster, according to government assessments.
灾难发生数周后，救援人员仍在水电站的隧道中搜寻数百名失踪的工人、工程师及其他相关人员。灾害的严重程度引发了人们对水电站设计和建造方式的重新思考。
Seven hydropower projects were directly hit while generation was halted at others, removing 410 MW from the national grid. Six hydropower projects under construction, with a combined capacity of 508 MW, were also damaged.
能源、水资源与灌溉部长比拉杰·巴克塔·什雷斯塔周三在议会表示：“这场灾难为我们未来的发展提供了宝贵的教训。”他补充说：“我们不仅要评估灾害造成的损失，还要从中吸取经验，制定相应的措施以降低未来的风险。”
Rescuers have continued searching hydropower tunnels for hundreds of missing workers, engineers and other personnel, weeks after the disaster. The scale of the damage has prompted calls for a rethink of how projects are designed and built. The disaster has “taught us serious lessons for the future,” Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Biraj Bhakta Shrestha told parliament on Wednesday.
世界银行警告称，尼泊尔需要建立一个能够预测、应对日益复杂的喜马拉雅地区自然灾害的水电系统。
“We must not only take stock of the damage but also learn from it and develop systems to reduce future risks,” he said.
科学家们指出，8月份的这场灾难是由多种地质和气候因素共同作用的结果，而非单一的极端天气事件所致。
The World Bank warned that Nepal needs to build a hydropower system capable of anticipating, absorbing and recovering from increasingly complex Himalayan hazards.
根据世界天气归因组织（World Weather Attribution）的研究，这次大规模的岩石与冰体崩塌是由于长期的气候变暖、冰川退缩以及地质不稳定所导致的。
Scientists say the August disaster was caused by a complex chain of geological and climatic factors rather than a single extreme weather event.
尼泊尔的大部分水电站基础设施都建在由冰川融水形成的陡峭河谷中，这些地区极易发生洪水、山体滑坡等地质灾害。
According to the World Weather Attribution group, the massive rock-and-ice collapse was shaped by long-term warming, glacier retreat and geological instability.
国际水电协会（IPPAN）的拉玛表示：“水电站应迁建到河床更高的位置以避免洪水侵袭；同时，我们需要制定更完善的疏散计划，并建立安全的避难所。此外，还应探索远程操控技术，以确保在发生紧急情况时人员能够及时撤离。”
Much of Nepal’s hydropower infrastructure lies along steep river valleys fed by glaciers — terrain exposed to floods, landslides and cascading geological hazards. “Powerhouses need to be moved higher up from the riverbeds to protect them against floods, we need better evacuation plans and stocked safehouses,” IPPAN’s Lama said.
此次洪水事件也再次引发了人们对尼泊尔电力结构多样化的呼吁——该国目前缺乏燃煤或燃气发电能力。
“We should explore remotely operated systems so people are not stuck inside in case anything happens.” The flooding has also renewed calls for diversifying the power mix in Nepal, which lacks coal or gas-fired generation capacity.
德国发展机构GIZ在2024年的一份报告中指出：“尼泊尔的电力系统目前压力巨大，且严重依赖水力发电；通过合理规划，增加太阳能发电的比重，可以使该国的电力系统更加可靠。”这一挑战不仅限于尼泊尔，也适用于其他依赖水力发电的国家。
“Nepal’s electricity system, currently strained and heavily dependent on hydropower, could be made more robust through well-planned additions of solar electricity,” Germany’s development agency GIZ said in a 2024 report. The challenge extends beyond Nepal.
更广泛的喜马拉雅山脉和兴都库什山脉的冰川是山区约2.4亿人的重要水源，也是南亚和东南亚河谷下游另外16.5亿人的重要水源。
Glaciers in the wider Himalayan and Hindu Kush ranges are a crucial water source for around 240 million people in the mountainous regions, as well as for another 1.65 billion people in the South Asian and Southeast Asian river valleys below.
特里布文大学灾害研究中心主任巴桑塔·拉吉·阿迪卡里表示，必须对喜马拉雅山脉进行区域性监测以识别热点地区，从而建立预警系统。“我称之为喜马拉雅人民的命运，”他说。
Basanta Raj Adhikari, director at the Centre for Disaster Studies at Tribhuvan University, said the Himalayas must be monitored regionally for hotspots to develop early warning systems. “I call it the fate of the Himalayan people,” he said.
“这种情况可能发生在世界任何地方，但喜马拉雅山脉正因气候变化和人类活动而遭受不利影响，”他说。
“It can happen anywhere in the world but the Himalayas are experiencing adverse impacts due to climate change and anthropogenic activity,” he said.
“我们必须设计气候适应型基础设施。这是我们的首要任务，因为我们（正面临）生存威胁。”
“We have to design climate-resilient infrastructures. That is our top priority because we are (facing) existential threat.”