关键信息：意大利极端民族主义者罗伯托·瓦纳奇（Roberto Vannacci）领导的政党首次在选举中接受考验，这场选举可能成为衡量总理乔治亚·梅洛尼（Giorgia Meloni）领导的联盟在明年大选前表现的重要指标。
By Donato Paolo Mancini Italian ultranationalist Roberto Vannacci’s breakaway party gets its first test at the ballot box, a contest that may provide a gauge of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s coalition heading into next year’s general election.
瓦纳奇推选的候选人多梅尼科·贾内塔（Domenico Giannetta）将参加雷焦卡拉布里亚（Reggio Calabria）地区的议会选举；他曾是“意大利力量党”（Forza Italia）在该地区的负责人，如今将与梅洛尼联盟支持的候选人法比奥·罗斯科利（Fabio Roscioli）竞争。中左翼的弗兰克·贝内代托（Frank Benedetto）则试图利用右翼内部的裂痕来争取选民支持。
Vannacci’s candidate for a parliamentary seat in the southern city of Reggio Calabria, Domenico Giannetta, a former regional whip in Forza Italia, is going up against Fabio Roscioli, a candidate backed by Meloni’s coalition. The center-left’s Frank Benedetto is seeking to capitalize on the fractured right.
瓦纳奇在民意调查中的支持率上升，只是欧洲民粹主义右翼势力崛起的一个例证：最近，德国的“德国选择党”（Alternative for Germany）在萨克森-安哈尔特州赢得了选举；法国的玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）则成为2027年总统大选的热门人选。然而在意大利保守派势力强大的卡拉布里亚地区，传统政治势力仍持乐观态度。
Vannacci’s burst in national polling is just one data point in the populist right’s surge across Europe. Most recently, Germany’s Alternative for Germany won an election in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, and France’s Marine Le Pen is the frontrunner in the 2027 presidential campaign. But in Italy’s conservative stronghold of Calabria, the establishment remains positive.
“我对选举结果非常有信心，”该地区省长、同时也是梅洛尼政府中第三大政党“意大利力量党”的全国副秘书罗伯托·奥基乌托（Roberto Occhiuto）周四在接受采访时说，“这次选举将证明：即使没有联盟支持，民粹主义者也是可以被击败的。”
“I am very confident about the outcome,” Roberto Occhiuto, the regionalgovernor and a deputy national secretary at Forza Italia, the third-biggest party in Meloni’s government in Rome, said in an interview Thursday. “This test will show that populists can be defeated even without alliances.” A former general, Vannacci has focused his campaign on the same themes he has espoused nationally: He’s most faithful to the right’s views on crime, sovereignty, national identity and opposition to aid to Ukraine. He has also likened his campaign to that of Germany’s rising AfD.
作为前将军的瓦纳奇，他的竞选纲领延续了他在全国范围内倡导的观点：他坚决支持右翼在犯罪问题、国家主权、民族认同以及反对向乌克兰提供援助等方面的立场。他还将自己的竞选活动比作德国“德国选择党”的竞选活动。
Reggio Calabria “will be our Saxony,” Vannacci said at a rally this month. “We’ll do better than AfD in Saxony. We’ll get more than 43%.” His culture war rhetoric, which echoes Meloni’s messaging when she was in opposition, has made Vannacci’s movement Italy’s second-biggest political force on the right. A national poll last week put his National Future party at about 8.1%. There’s been no polling for the seat in Calabria.
“雷焦卡拉布里亚将成为我们的‘萨克森’，”瓦纳奇在本月的一次集会上表示，“我们的支持率会超过‘德国选择党’在萨克森州的支持率（43%）。”他的文化冲突言论与梅洛尼在反对派时期所宣扬的观点如出一辙，这使得瓦纳奇领导的政党成为意大利右翼第二大政治力量。上周的一项全国性民意调查显示，他的政党在全国范围内的支持率为8.1%；不过目前尚未针对卡拉布里亚地区的具体选区进行过民意调查。
Reggio Calabria “will be our Saxony,” Vannacci said at a rally this month. “We’ll do better than AfD in Saxony. We’ll get more than 43%.” His culture war rhetoric, which echoes Meloni’s messaging when she was in opposition, has made Vannacci’s movement Italy’s second-biggest political force on the right. A national poll last week put his National Future party at about 8.1%. There’s been no polling for the seat in Calabria.
梅洛尼已排除在明年大选前与万纳奇达成任何协议的可能性。他表示，任何此类联盟都必须尊重他在安全和移民问题上的“红线”。尽管梅洛尼的任期将于2027年10月结束，但彭博社报道称，大选可能最早于4月举行。
Meloni has ruled out any deal with Vannacci ahead of next year’s vote. He has said any such alliance would have to respect his own “red lines” on security and migration. Though Meloni’s mandate ends in October 2027, an election could be held as soon as April, Bloomberg has reported.
此次补选是由意大利力量党的弗朗切斯科·卡尼扎罗今年当选雷焦卡拉布里亚市长所引发。投票将于周一下午结束，结果预计随后不久公布。
The by-election was triggered by the election of Francesco Cannizzaro of Forza Italia to mayor of Reggio Calabria this year. Polls close Monday afternoon, and results are expected shortly thereafter.