纸面上看，佛罗里达州似乎是众议员拜伦·唐纳兹创造历史、成为美国首位当选的黑人共和党州长的完美之地。
On paper, Florida looks like the perfect place for Rep. Byron Donalds to make history as the country’s first elected Black Republican governor.
本世纪以来，共和党赢下了佛罗里达州的每一场州长选举。唐纳德·特朗普总统三次拿下该州。罗恩·德桑蒂斯州长以近20个百分点的优势连任。共和党目前拥有约150万的选民登记优势。与此同时，唐纳兹似乎拥有一切所需：全国知名度、强大的筹款机器，以及与现任总统的紧密关系。我仍不信他能赢。
Republicans have won every Florida governor’s race this century. President Donald Trump carried the state three times. Gov. Ron DeSantis won re-election by nearly 20 points Republicans now hold a voter registration advantage of roughly 1.5 million Donalds, meanwhile, has nearly everything he’d seem to need: a national profile, formidable fundraising operation close ties to the sitting president.
共和党已证明愿意提名黑人候选人竞选州长。但他们尚未找到一位能克服部分选民在投票箱前的种族抵触、并组建赢得大选所需联盟的候选人。
I’m still not convinced he’ll win.
尽管唐纳兹拥有上述所有优势，但上周，Decision Desk HQ将州长选举评级调整为“势均力敌”，成为近几天内第三家将其倾向调向民主党候选人大卫·乔利的预测机构。最近的一项St. Pete Polls民调显示双方打成平手。这出戏我们看过，至少开头看过：2006年俄亥俄州的肯·布莱克韦尔和宾夕法尼亚州的林恩·斯旺；2023年肯塔基州的丹尼尔·卡梅伦；2024年北卡罗来纳州的马克·罗宾逊；以及2025年弗吉尼亚州的温萨姆·厄尔-西尔斯。这些黑人候选人均被共和党捧为该党焕然一新、更加多元的证明。他们全都输了。
Republicans have proved willing to nominate Black candidates for governor. But they haven’t yet found a candidate who can overcome the racial resistance some voters bring to the ballot box and assemble the general election coalition required to win. Despite all the advantages listed for Donalds mentioned above, last week, Decision Desk HQ moved the governor’s race to a toss-up the third forecaster in recent days to shift it toward Democrat David Jolly. A recent St. Pete Polls survey showed a statistical tie We’ve seen this movie before, or at least the start of it: Ken Blackwell in Ohio and Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania in 2006; Daniel Cameron in Kentucky in 2023; Mark Robinson in North Carolina in 2024; and Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia in 2025. Each of those Black candidates was held up by the GOP as proof that the party is new and more diverse. Each of them lost.
原因各异。卡梅伦对阵人气颇高的现任州长安迪·贝希尔。罗宾逊过于极端且陷丑闻不断，在特朗普拿下北卡罗来纳州的那一年落败。其他人则遭遇恶劣的政治环境。这正是布莱克韦尔的失利对今天最具启示意义的原因。
Despite all the advantages listed for Donalds mentioned above, last week, Decision Desk HQ moved the governor’s race to a toss-up the third forecaster in recent days to shift it toward Democrat David Jolly. A recent St. Pete Polls survey showed a statistical tie We’ve seen this movie before, or at least the start of it: Ken Blackwell in Ohio and Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania in 2006; Daniel Cameron in Kentucky in 2023; Mark Robinson in North Carolina in 2024; and Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia in 2025. Each of those Black candidates was held up by the GOP as proof that the party is new and more diverse. Each of them lost.
2026年8月18日，得到特朗普支持的拜伦·唐纳兹（Byron Donalds）与民主党候选人戴维·乔利（David Jolly）在佛罗里达州州长初选中获胜。2006年，共和党人在共和党总统的第二个任期内遭遇了惨败；当时布莱克威尔（Blackwell）曾在州级选举中获胜，前总统乔治·W·布什（George W. Bush）也在两年前赢得了俄亥俄州的选举，但这些因素并未能保护他们免受全国性的强烈反对。最终，布莱克威尔以24个百分点的差距落败。虽然每次选举的背景、年份和政治环境都不同，但结果始终如一：那些试图竞选州长的共和党候选人总是以失败告终。
The reasons varied. Cameron ran against a popular incumbent governor, Andy Beshear. Robinson was so extreme and scandal-prone he lost in a year Trump carried North Carolina. Others ran into hostile political environments. That’s why Blackwell’s loss may be the most instructive today. Trump-backed Byron Donalds, Democrat David Jolly win FL governor primaries August 18, 2026 In 2006, Republicans faced a brutal midterm in the second term of a Republican presidency. Blackwell had won statewide times, and former President George W. Bush had carried Ohio two years earlier. None of it protected him from the national backlash. He lost by 24 points Different states, different years, different political climates. And yet the same result each time for the Black Republican vying to be governor.
最能消除我对唐纳兹胜算怀疑的因素，就是佛罗里达州的选民结构。上个月，有超过169万佛罗里达州选民参加了共和党州长初选，而民主党方面的选民人数约为124万。共和党在选民登记方面具有明显优势，且他们的选民投票率也更高。不过，11月的选举选民人数将会大幅增加——佛罗里达州有超过330万无党派选民，他们无法参加任何党派的初选。这些无党派选民在2022年（当时民主党执政）的中期选举中曾支持德桑蒂斯（DeSantis）；而今年的情况则恰恰相反：反对特朗普的选民力量正在增强。
The strongest case against my skepticism of Donalds’ chances is Florida’s electorate. Last month, more than 1.69 million Floridians voted in the Republican primary for governor, compared with about 1.24 million on the Democratic side. Republicans have a clear registration advantage, and they turned out. But November’s electorate will be much larger. More than 3.3 million active Florida voters areed with no party affiliation couldn’t participate in either partisan primary That’s more than twice the GOP’s registration advantage. Those voters broke for DeSantis in 2022, a midterm election under a Democratic president. This year, the backlash runs the other way.
肯塔基州的选举也提供了一个类似的例子：2020年特朗普以26个百分点的优势在肯塔基州获胜；三年后，尽管卡梅伦（Cameron）是特朗普支持的、备受看好的共和党候选人，仍有足够多的共和党选民转而支持民主党候选人贝希尔（Beshear），导致卡梅伦落败。
Kentucky also offers a lesson. Trump carried it by 26 points in 2020. Three years later, Cameron was a sitting attorney general endorsed by Trump and a rising GOP star. Yet enough Republican voters crossed party lines to re-elect the Democrat, Beshear.
目前来看，唐纳兹最大的优势——即他与特朗普的密切关系——也可能成为他的最大弱点。他曾是特朗普最得力的支持者之一，在特朗普面临刑事指控时始终坚定地维护他的立场，甚至一度被视作特朗普的潜在竞选搭档。特朗普在唐纳兹正式宣布参选之前就公开表示支持他。这种支持帮助唐纳兹在共和党初选中以近23个百分点的优势获胜。然而唐纳兹自己也承认：仅靠特朗普的支持，在11月的选举中是远远不够的。
At this point, Donalds’ greatest strength, his closeness to Trump, may be his greatest weakness. He was one of Trump’s most effective surrogates and a staunch defender of Trump during his criminal prosecutions. Donalds was even talked about as a potential running mate. Trump endorsed Donalds even before Donalds had declared his candidacy. That support helped Donalds win an 11-candidate Republican primary by nearly 23 points. But Donalds himself conceded that Trump’s endorsement would not be enough in November.
众议员拜伦·唐纳兹对众议院于2025年7月3日通过特朗普提出的那项重大法案作出了反应。他确实有理由感到担忧：根据《纽约时报》与Sienna联合进行的最新民意调查，特朗普的支持率仅约为38%，而人们对伊朗战争以及由此导致的油价上涨越来越不满。
Rep. Byron Donalds reacts to House passing Trump’s megabill July 3, 2025 He is right to worry. Trump’s approval rating hovers around 38%, according to the latest New York Times/Sienna polling amid growing dissatisfaction with the Iran war and the resulting higher gas prices.
唐纳兹自始至终都支持特朗普。如果选民现在感到愤怒，无论他如何从自己的竞选网站上删除与特朗普相关的信息或照片，都无法令人信服地与特朗普划清界限。
Donalds has stood by Trump through it all. If voters are angry now, he can’t credibly run from the president, no matter how many mentions and photos of Trump he scrubs from his own campaign website.
唐纳兹的民主党对手乔利形成了鲜明的对比——这位前共和党议员已经退出了共和党，现在正与格温·格雷厄姆搭档参选。格温的父亲鲍勃·格雷厄姆是一位深受民众爱戴的民主党人，曾担任佛罗里达州州长和美国参议员。
Donalds’ Democratic opponent, Jolly, offers an unusually clean contrast. The former Republican congressman left the party and is now running with Gwen Graham, daughter of the late Bob Graham, a popular Democrat who served as governor and a U.S. senator.
如果唐纳兹落选，高油价很可能是主要原因之一。今年春天，佛罗里达州消费者的情绪持续低迷，6月份达到了两年来的最低点。房屋保险费用也受到了严重影响：2021年至2025年间，房屋保险费上涨了75%，涨幅几乎是全国平均水平的两倍。
If Donalds loses, high prices might be the primary cause. Floridians’ consumer sentiment fell for four straight months this spring, reaching a two-year low in June. Homeowners insurance is part of the squeeze: Premiums rose 75% between 2021 and 2025 roughly twice the national rate.
共和党人在佛罗里达州长期占据主导地位——他们已经控制了州政府以及州立法机构的两个议院长达27年。西班牙裔选民在11月的选举中也将起到关键作用。2024年特朗普在佛罗里达州的西班牙裔选民中获得了58%的支持率；但最近的一项民意调查显示，在西班牙裔选民中乔利的支持率（48%）高于唐纳兹（39%）。这一选民群体对佛罗里达州共和党的未来至关重要。唐纳兹选择来自南佛罗里达州的古巴裔议员布赖恩·阿维拉作为自己的竞选搭档，无疑也是出于这一考虑。
And Republicans own the record. They’ve controlled the governor’s mansion and both chambers of the legislature for 27 years The Hispanic vote will also be a key factor in November’s election. Trump won 58% of Florida Latinos in 2024 But a recent St. Pete Polls survey had Jolly leading Donalds among Hispanic voters, 48% to 39%. That’s a constituency central to Florida’s Republican transformation and no doubt a key factor in Donalds’ choice of Bryan Ávila, a Cuban lawmaker from South Florida, has his running mate.
此外，佛罗里达州的民主党候选人阵容还包括州众议员安吉·尼克松——她是一位主张民主社会主义的候选人，正在竞选美国参议院席位。从意识形态上看，她与前共和党人乔利截然不同；但从选举角度来看，两人都可能成为对方在投票站上的有力支持者：乔利能够吸引那些对共和党感到失望的独立选民，而尼克松则能够吸引那些原本可能对共和党持冷漠态度的进步派选民。共和党人试图与特朗普划清界限：为时已晚，力度不足2026年9月24日美国已选出三位黑人州长，他们都是民主党人：弗吉尼亚州的L.道格拉斯·怀尔德、马萨诸塞州的德瓦尔·帕特里克和马里兰州的韦斯·摩尔。从未有黑人共和党人当选州长。
Then there is the rest of the Democratic ticket, including state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist running for U.S. Senate. Ideologically, she and the former Republican Jolly are miles apart. Electorally, each could be an asset to the other at the ballot box. Jolly has an argument for independents and disaffected Republicans; Nixon has one for progressives who might otherwise lack enthusiasm for a former Republican. Too little, too late for Republicans seeking distance from Trump September 24, 2026 America has elected three Black governors Democrats L. Douglas Wilder in Virginia, Deval Patrick in Massachusetts and Wes Moore in Maryland. No Black Republican has ever been elected governor.
种族主义在多大程度上导致了每一位黑人共和党州长候选人的落选，无法精确衡量。但若假装选票箱中的种族抵触已不复存在，那将是愚蠢的。
How much racism contributed to the defeats of every Black GOP nominee for governor is impossible to measure precisely. But it would be foolish to pretend racial resistance at the ballot box no longer exists. In last month’s primary, Donalds’
在上个月的初选中，唐纳兹在佛罗里达州北部农村地区的支持度明显较弱，该地区人口以白人为主、多样性较低。副州长杰伊·柯林斯（白人）赢得了17个县，这些县的共和党选民登记中白人占比高达94%。其中两个县——迪克西县和利伯蒂县——唐纳兹甚至仅得第三名。
support was notably weaker in rural northern Florida which tends to be whiter and less diverse. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who is white, carried 17 counties where the Republican voter registration is 94% white In two of them, Dixie County and Liberty County, Donalds finished third.
这些数据并不能证明选民因唐纳兹是黑人而拒绝支持他。柯林斯在这些县深耕细作，初选结果受多种因素影响。但这告诉我们十一月大选时该关注哪里。
This data does not prove voters rejected Donalds because he’s Black. Collins worked the counties hard, and primaries turn on many factors. But it tells us where to look in November.
有理由相信，不愿支持资历优秀的黑人共和党总统候选人的共和党选民，也会拒绝支持资历优秀的黑人共和党州长候选人。
There’s reason to believe Republicans who wouldn’t support a well-qualified Black Republican presidential candidate would reject a well-qualified Black Republican gubernatorial candidate.
2024年盖洛普民调显示，只有88%的共和党人（相比之下，92%的无党派人士和96%的民主党人）表示会投票给共和党提名的资历优秀的黑人总统候选人。该问题针对的是白宫而非佛罗里达州长官邸。尽管如此，有理由相信，不愿支持资历优秀的黑人共和党总统候选人的共和党人，也会拒绝支持资历优秀的黑人共和党州长候选人。共和党在黑人选民中有所斩获：皮尤研究中心对2024年投票模式的分析发现，特朗普赢得了15%的黑人选票，其中包括21%的黑人男性选票。但在当前严峻的政治环境下，特朗普在各个人口群体中的高不满度——包括两年前共和党有所斩获的群体——不足以成为依靠。
2024 Gallup poll only 88% of Republicans (compared to 92% of independents and 96% of Democrats) said they would vote for a well-qualified Black presidential candidate nominated by the GOP. The question was about the White House, not the Florida’s governor’s mansion. Still, there’s reason to believe Republicans who wouldn’t support a well-qualified Black Republican presidential candidate would reject a well-qualified Black Republican gubernatorial candidate. Republicans have made gains with Black voters: Pew’s analysis of 2024 voting patterns found that Trump won 15% of Black voters, including 21% of Black men. But Trump’s high disapproval across demographic groups, including those where the party made gains two years ago, cannot be relied upon in this tough political environment.
布莱克威尔对此深有体会：二十年前，他拥有丰富的履历（包括三次在全州范围内的选举胜利），并在当时共和党总统任期第六年参选，但最终以24个百分点的差距落败。
Blackwell knows that firsthand. Twenty years ago, he had the résumé and three statewide wins under his belt. He ran in the sixth year of an unpopular Republican presidency and lost by 24 points.
考虑到佛罗里达州共和党选民的投票倾向、丹尼尔斯的筹款能力以及该州近期的选举历史，这个州本应是黑人共和党人突破州长选举障碍的理想之地。然而，这场竞选的结果仍难以预料（胜负难分）。
Florida should be the place for a Black Republican to break the gubernatorial barrier, given the Republican voter registration, Daniels’ fundraising numbers and the state’s recent electoral history.
政治环境是导致这种不确定性的主要原因；而竞选过程中的其他因素也可能对最终结果产生影响。这些不利因素加在一起，很可能会让他输掉这场选举。
And yet the race is a toss-up. The political environment explains much of that. Race may explain some of the rest. Together, they may be enough to cost him the race.
《MS NOW》杂志指出：“佛罗里达州的共和党候选人拜伦·唐纳兹看似拥有一切优势……唯独缺乏‘历史经验’。”
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