2026年中期选举正逼近共和党。其结果将在一定程度上取决于历史认为谁控制了舆论叙事。遗憾的是，共和党正在这场战役中失利，正如他们在2006年伊拉克战争成为决定性议题时那样。
The 2026 midterm election is bearing down on Republicans. How it will turn out will be determined, in part, by whom history says controlled the narrative. Sadly, Republicans are losing that battle just as they did in 2006 when the Iraq War became the decisive issue.
2004年总统大选后，共和党在众议院拥有232个席位的多数优势，民主党占据202席。2006年选举后，这一局面逆转，民主党掌握233席，共和党202席，民主党甚至赢得了唯一的独立议员席位。
After the 2004 presidential election, Republicans had a House majority of 232 seats to 202 seats held by the Democrats. After the 2006 election, that was reversed, with Democrats holding 233 seats to 202 for Republicans, with Democrats even picking up the one independent seat.
令人惊讶的是，2006年经济增长率达3%，全年新增就业岗位180万个，共和党却仍遭惨败。
What might be surprising about that loss is that the 2006 economy was growing at 3% and there were 1.8 million new jobs added in 2006.
中期选举历史极大有利于民主党，但他们正犯一个大错 那么，共和党为何在2006年以如此戏剧性的方式失去众议院控制权？两大原因：未能控制舆论叙事，且未能向选民提供未来几年的施政蓝图。
MIDTERM HISTORY MASSIVELY FAVORS DEMOCRATS. BUT THEY ARE MAKING A BIG MISTAKE So, how did Republicans lose the House in that dramatic fashion in 2006? Two ways: by not controlling the narrative and failing to offer the voters a plan for the years ahead.
2006年竞选的主导议题并非经济，而是伊拉克战争。公众对战争厌倦，出口民调显示56%的美国人不赞成该战争。小布什总统的支持率与该战争挂钩，其不支持率相仿。
The dominant issue of the 2006 campaign was not the economy, it was the Iraq War. The public was weary of it and exit polls showed that 56% of Americans disapproved of it. President George W. Bush’s approval ratings were tied to that war, and he had a similar disapproval rating. REPUBLICANS FACE BRUTAL MIDTERM HEADWINDS. SIX FORCES COULD HELP THEM DEFY HISTORY.
共和党面临残酷中期选举逆风，六大力量或助其逆历史而行此外，还有共和党众议员马克·福利丑闻在选前爆发。
There was also the late-breaking Mark Foley scandal, a Republican congressman. In the process, independent voters voted decisively for Democrats 57% to 39% in those midterms in contrast to voting slightly in favor of Republicans in 2004.
在此过程中，独立选民在中期选举中以57%对39%果断支持民主党，形成鲜明对比的是，他们在2004年曾略微倾向共和党。
Keep in mind that the Iraq War did not result in substantial hardships for Americans as compared to prior wars such as Vietnam, Korea or the world wars.
请注意，与越战、朝战或两次世界大战相比，伊拉克战争并未给美国民众带来实质性困苦。
Obviously, the Iraq War was a Middle East War far from the American homeland. Yes, gas prices did rise (sound familiar?). But they were significantly dropping by the time of the election.
显然，伊拉克战争是一场远在中东、远离美国本土的战争。汽油价格确实上涨过（听起来熟悉吗？）。但到了选举时，油价已大幅下跌。
FOX NEWS POLL: SQUEEZED BY COSTS, FRUSTRATED VOTERS TURN TO THE DEMOCRATS As for the Iraq War itself, nearly 20 times as many Americans had died in the Vietnam War than had in the Iraq War by the 2006 midterms. While all troop deaths are always tragedies, that comparison is made to give context between two major wars and public perception about their gravity and losses.
福克斯新闻民调：选民因成本压力感到沮丧，转而支持民主党 至于伊拉克战争本身，到2006年中期选举时，越战中阵亡的美国人数量是伊拉克战争的近20倍。虽然每一位士兵的牺牲都是悲剧，但这一对比旨在为这两场大战及公众对其严重性和损失的看法提供背景。
FOX NEWS POLL: SQUEEZED BY COSTS, FRUSTRATED VOTERS TURN TO THE DEMOCRATS As for the Iraq War itself, nearly 20 times as many Americans had died in the Vietnam War than had in the Iraq War by the 2006 midterms. While all troop deaths are always tragedies, that comparison is made to give context between two major wars and public perception about their gravity and losses. To a large degree, the controlling dynamic of the 2006 election was the public’s view of the Iraq War, the Foley scandal and the lack of a Republican narrative.
很大程度上，2006年大选的主导动态是公众对伊拉克战争、福利丑闻以及共和党缺乏叙事的看法。
REPUBLICANS NEED A REAGAN-STYLE VISION TO WIN THE BATTLE OVER AMERICA'S FUTURE Elections, however, should never be analyzed just for what happened. They also should be analyzed for what didn’t happen. What didn’t happen in the 2006 midterms was the voters getting a forward-looking reason to vote for Republicans.
共和党需要里根式愿景以赢得美国未来之战 然而，选举绝不应仅因发生了什么而被分析。也应因未发生什么而被分析。2006年中期选举中未发生的事，是选民没有获得一个面向未来的理由去投票给共和党。
REPUBLICANS NEED A REAGAN-STYLE VISION TO WIN THE BATTLE OVER AMERICA'S FUTURE Elections, however, should never be analyzed just for what happened. They also should be analyzed for what didn’t happen. What didn’t happen in the 2006 midterms was the voters getting a forward-looking reason to vote for Republicans.
选举永远关乎未来——无论你过去做了什么。然而，延续几乎所有过去中期选举的惯例，执政党没有向选民提出前瞻性计划。共和党没有承诺选民如果当选控制众议院将实施的三点计划。
Elections are always about the future – regardless of what you have done in the past. However, in keeping with almost every midterm election in the past, the party in the White House did not present voters with a plan going forward. Republicans had no three-point plan that they promised voters they would implement if elected to take control of the House.
共和党刚获得国会争夺战的强力新战术手册。内容如下 相反，他们寄希望于资金优势、过往功绩和复杂的动员选民计划。直白地说，这无法也不可能导致共和党控制2006年中期选举的叙事。结果，共和党被事件和民主党所定义。
REPUBLICANS JUST GOT A POWERFUL NEW PLAYBOOK FOR THE BATTLE FOR CONGRESS. HERE'S WHAT'S INSIDE Instead, they placed their hopes on a money advantage, past laurels and a sophisticated get-out-the-vote plan. In plain terms, that did not and could not result in Republicans controlling the narrative of the 2006 midterms. As a result, Republicans were defined by events and the Democrats.
快进到今天，2006年和2026年的对比显而易见。如今如彼时，美国人身处中东战争。两次美国人都对战争厌倦——尽管伊拉克战争已持续近三年，而2026年仅六个月。两次汽油价格都上涨了。福克斯新闻权力排名：对民主党而言，还能出什么岔子？
Fast-forward to today, and the comparisons between 2006 and 2026 should be manifest. Today as then, Americans are in a Middle East war. Both times, Americans had grown weary of the war – although the Iraq War had been waged for nearly three years compared to just six months in 2026. Both times gas prices had risen. FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: FOR THE DEMOCRATS, WHERE COULD IT POSSIBLY GO WRONG?
如今，经济呈现出许多亮点，包括创纪录的低贫困率、制造业繁荣以及强劲的消费者支出。工资增长跑赢通胀（这与拜登执政时期不同），股市也一片繁荣。
Today, the economy has many very bright spots, including record-low poverty rates, a manufacturing boom and strong consumer spending. Wages are outpacing inflation (unlike the Biden years) and the stock market is booming.
然而，鉴于我们身处的“分裂媒体时代”，全国很大一部分人对此一无所知。更糟糕的是，共和党尚未向选民阐述其2027年的计划。
A good deal of the country, however, would never know it given the Divided Media Era in which we live. Worse yet, Republicans have not told voters their plan for 2027.
丽兹·皮克：人工智能警钟敲响，特朗普需严肃对待。他们抨击民主党及其社会主义路线。然而，仅说对手不好，并非面向未来的计划。事实上，共和党迄今仍未表示：“选我们掌控众议院，我们将做一、二、三。”结果，共和党未能掌控舆论叙事，正如2006年那样。虽然因选区划分操纵，他们预计损失不会像2006年那样惨重，但共和党本应从过去的错误中吸取教训。点击此处阅读更多福克斯新闻观点幸运的是，仍有时间，他们的三点计划应当是：俗话说，“空手套不了白狼。”如果共和党想在2026年获胜，他们必须拿出实招，而且必须立即行动。
LIZ PEEK: AI ALARM BELLS ARE RINGING AND TRUMP NEEDS TO TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY They have called out the Democrats and their socialist ways. However, saying the other side is bad, isn’t a forward-looking plan. Indeed, Republicans have yet to say, "Elect us to control of the House and we will do one, two and three." As a result, Republicans have failed to control the narrative just as they did in 2006. While their losses likely won’t be as large as 2006 because of gerrymandering, Republicans should have learned from their past mistakes. CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION Fortunately, there is still time and there three-point plan should be: The old saying goes, "You can’t be something with nothing." If the Republicans want to win in 2026, they need to offer something, and they need to do it now.