南卡罗来纳州的保守派共和党人在2026年初选期间明确表示，他们不希望财政自由派、战争贩子林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）的妹妹在今年秋季成为共和党参议院候选人。
Conservative Republicans in South Carolina made it abundantly clear during the 2026 primary election cycle that they didn’t want the sister of fiscally liberal warmonger Lindsey Graham serving as the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate this fall.
遗憾的是，南卡罗来纳州的共和党建制派在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的怂恿下拒绝听取民意，并执意投入数百万美元，支持立场偏左的“共和党人”达琳·格雷厄姆·诺多内（Darline Graham Nordone）。
Unfortunately, the Palmetto State’s Republican establishment – egged on by U.S. president Donald Trump – refused to listen, and proceeded to launch a multi-million dollar campaign in support of left-of-center “Republican” Darline Graham Nordone.
与此同时，特朗普及其南卡罗来纳州共和党盟友斥资数百万美元攻击诺多内的自由党团竞争对手、美国国会议员拉尔夫·诺曼（Ralph Norman），此举进一步疏远了该州日益壮大的保守派选民基础。
At the same time, Trump and his SCGOP allies spent millions attacking Nordone’s Freedom Caucus rival, U.S. congressman Ralph Norman – a move that further alienated the state’s growing conservative base.
如今，这种持续疏远所带来的后果对于南卡罗来纳州共和党的统治阶层，乃至对于特朗普本人来说，正变得愈发惨痛且清晰。
Now, the consequences of this ongoing alienation are becoming painfully clear for the Palmetto State’s GOP ruling class… and for Trump.
在全国分析人士指出诺多内与民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯（Annie Andrews）之间的大选竞争日益激烈几天后，全美最准确的共和党民调机构之一发布的一项新调查显示，双方选情陷入胶着。
Days after national analysts noted the increasing competitiveness of Nordone’s general election against Democrat Annie Andrews, a new survey from one of the nation’s most accurate Republican pollsters has revealed the race to be a dead heat.
根据特拉法加集团（Trafalgar Group）于2026年9月26日（周六）公布的民调结果，诺多内对民主党对手的领先优势极其微弱。当被问及如果明天举行选举会支持谁时，43.4%的受访者表示支持诺多内，42.3%支持安德鲁斯，差距仅为1.1个百分点。
According to poll results released on Saturday (September 26, 2026) from the Trafalgar Group, Nordone is clinging to an incredibly narrow advantage over her Democrat rival. Asked to say who they would support if the election were held tomorrow, 43.4% said Nordone compared to 42.3% who answered Andrews – a spread of just +1.1%.
另有5.9%的受访者表示支持其他候选人，8.5%的人表示尚未决定。
Another 5.9% of respondents said they were supporting another candidate, while 8.5% indicated they were undecided.
是什么让这些数据对诺多内来说更加令人不安？根据特拉法加的调查，近十分之六（59.1%）的受访者自认为是共和党人，而自认为是民主党人的仅占29.3%。其余11.6%的受访者则不属于两大主要政党。
What makes these numbers even more troubling for Nordone? According to the Trafalgar survey, nearly six-out-of-ten respondents (59.1%) identified as Republicans, compared to just 29.3% who professed being Democrats. The remainder of the sample – 11.6% – did not identify with either of the two major parties.
一位未参与任何参议院竞选活动的共和党顶级战略家告诉我们：“如果这些数据可信，那情况就非常、非常糟糕了。”相关报道 | 美国参议院竞选局势变动Trafalgar民调机构由资深共和党全国战略家罗伯特·卡哈利（Robert Cahaly）运营，该机构在南卡罗来纳州的选情评估中一直表现精准。卡哈利于2026年9月23日至25日期间对1087名受访者进行了调查。此次民调的误差幅度为正负2.9%。
“This is very, very bad if these numbers are believed,” a top Republican strategist unaffiliated with any of the Senate campaigns told us. RELATED | SHIFTING SANDS IN U.S. SENATE RACE Run by veteran national GOP strategist Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar has been consistently on the money in its South Carolina assessments. Cahaly surveyed 1,087 respondents between September 23-25, 2026. His poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9%.
正如我们本周早些时候指出的，许多诺曼（Norman）的支持者计划在2026年的选票上写下这位国会议员的名字——这一举动很可能会从共和党的右翼阵营中分流至少1%至2%的选票。与此同时，诺多内（Nordone）在负担能力问题上已被安德鲁斯（Andrews）完全压制。
As we noted earlier this week, many Norman supporters plan to write the congressman’s name on their 2026 ballots – a movement that is likely taking at least 1-2% out of the Republican’s right flank. Meanwhile, Nordone has been completely outflanked by Andrews the affordability front.
“这是一场完美的风暴，”另一位与任何竞选团队均无关联的共和党操盘手告诉我们。“一位糟糕的共和党候选人、一个分裂的共和党、一位不受欢迎的总统，再加上经济逆风，这些因素正被一位本无胜算的民主党候选人巧妙地利用。”自2006年以来，还没有民主党人在南卡罗来纳州赢得过全州范围的选举。自1998年以来，也没有民主党人在南卡罗来纳州赢得过最高级别的竞选。
“This is a perfect storm,” another Republican operative unaffiliated with any of the campaigns told us. “A terrible GOP candidate, a divided Republican party, an unpopular president and economic headwinds that an otherwise unelectable Democrat candidate is deftly capitalizing on.” No Democrat has won a statewide election in South Carolina since 2006. No Democrat has won a top-of-the-ticket race in South Carolina since 1998.
安德鲁斯能在11月打破这一纪录吗？如果这些民调数据保持不变，她将拥有均等的胜算……
Could Andrews break that streak in November? If these numbers hold up, she’s got an even money shot…