Washington’s proposed military bases and expanded defence presence in Greenland will be akin to a “keep out” sign against potential Arctic military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, according to analysts.

The US, Denmark and Greenland signed a defence deal on Tuesday that allows Washington to build two new military bases on the world’s largest island, while reaffirming Denmark’s sovereignty over it.

The deal – which updates and amends a 1951 defence agreement between Denmark and the US – allows expansion and modernisation of the Pituffik US Space Force Base in northwestern Greenland and for additional military bases to be established in Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig, though they will still require approval from Greenland and Denmark.

Narsarsuaq is a settlement located in southern Greenland with a former civilian airport and US airbase that was closed in 1958. Its population is only a few dozen people. A second base is planned for Mestersvig in the northeast of Greenland, which currently hosts the Sirius Dog Sled Patrol, a Danish special forces unit.

The defence deal also calls for “stronger Nato engagement in the Arctic”, with non-Nato countries barred from establishing their own manned or unmanned military installations in Greenland or from having a military presence there. They are also barred from making any investments in Greenland that could threaten US national security. Before theg ceremony, President Donald Trump said the United States would “immediately begin” the process of developing a large military presence at the appropriate locations.

Melting sea ice due to climate change is increasing the strategic importance of the Arctic, where an emerging northern sea route is set to become the shortest shipping lane connecting the Asia-Pacific and Europe. Situated between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean, Greenland has been strategically and geopolitically significant to the US and its Nato allies since the Cold War as a crucial defence against missile attacks and submarine operations.

Not only is it located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean that separates North America from Russia, but it is also adjacent to the narrow strip of the northern Atlantic, with Iceland and the United Kingdom on the other side, known as the GIUK Gap – where the Russian navy could advance to the wider Atlantic Ocean.

Not only is it located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean that separates North America from Russia, but it is also adjacent to the narrow strip of the northern Atlantic, with Iceland and the United Kingdom on the other side, known as the GIUK Gap – where the Russian navy could advance to the wider Atlantic Ocean.

Marc Lanteigne, a professor at the Arctic University of Norway in Tromso, noted that not only does the new agreement allow for a larger US military presence in Greenland, but it also “calls for an expanded Nato presence”. “The stipulations that no non-Nato member country could establish any sort of military installations in Greenland, and … should be permitted to exercise control over investments seen as strategically sensitive, are very much directed at China and Russia,” Lanteigne said.

“The stipulations that no non-Nato member country could establish any sort of military installations in Greenland, and … should be permitted to exercise control over investments seen as strategically sensitive, are very much directed at China and Russia,” Lanteigne said.

While many of the elements of the deal were already enshrined in the 1951 Defence Agreement, a key concern in the Arctic is the need to monitor the strategic waterway off the Greenlandic coast, according to Lanteigne.

“The two new bases would also likely have a political role, underscoring that Washington is quite serious about deterring outside threats or incursions,” he said. Troy Bouffard, an assistant professor of Arctic security at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said the deal focused on “closing the door” before either China or Russia could gain access to the Arctic.

“Narsarsuaq restores a southern airfield and logistics node on the western end of the GIUK Gap, while Mestersvig gives the United States an eastern location for domain awareness, sustainment and undersea access towards the Fram Strait,” Bouffard said. “It’s more accurate to think of them as enablers for presence and surveillance.” Despite having no territory in the region, China framed itself as a “near-Arctic state” in a 2018 policy report, while strengthening its ties with Russia in scientific research, resources, shipping routes and infrastructure that could lead to an increased Chinese military presence in the region.

In July 2024, Chinese and Russian bombers were spotted jointly operating in airspace off the coast of Alaska for the first time, prompting American F-16 and F-35 fighter jets and Canadian CF-18s to intercept the aircraft.

Four Chinese navy ships were also spotted by the US coastguard in the Bering Sea near the Aleutian Islands that month. And in October 2024, China’s coastguard conducted its first joint patrol with its Russian counterpart in the Arctic.

Lanteigne said while neither China nor Russia’s armed forces were operating near Greenlandic waters, the US had plans to incorporate Greenland within its proposed Golden Dome anti-missile shield and to deploy unmanned military installations.

“At present, Sino-Russian Arctic activity has been far more focused on the Pacific Arctic region, including joint development of the Polar Silk Road between Northeast Asia and Northern Europe,” he said.

“However, as the Central Arctic becomes more open to sea traffic due to ice erosion, the need to monitor the Arctic for military activities has been seen by Nato as more pressing,” he continued.

“The end result is a ‘keep out’ sign directed at American adversaries.” Bouffard said the strategic benefit of a bigger US military presence in the region would be to “reduce opportunities” for China and Russia to “exploit surveillance gaps” and give the United States and its allies more warning and better options to respond.

“That could make closer China-Russia cooperation harder to translate into military opportunity and advantage in this area,” Bouffard said.