加朗斯·伯克 旧金山电——当科技巨头向一个对人工智能已感厌倦的世界警告称,他们最先进的系统可能危及人类时,一个问题随之浮现:他们究竟能从中得到什么?
GARANCE BURKE SAN FRANCISCO — As tech titans warned an AI-weary world that their own advanced systems could endanger humanity, the question emerged: What do they have to gain?
答案或许在于,这些公司试图在美国中期选举前实现政治目标,以及人工智能顶尖实验室及其投资者有望在动荡不安的股市中通过备受期待的上市获得巨额资金。
The answer may lie in the companies’ efforts to score political goals ahead of the U.S. midterm elections and the money top artificial intelligence labs and their investors stand to make in much-anticipated listings on a jittery stock market.
Anthropic和OpenAI的首席执行官近日宣称,美国最前沿的人工智能模型威力强大,甚至可能带来危险,因此在发布前必须接受监管和独立测试。罕少见地达成一致的是,两家公司通过文章、社交媒体帖子以及在联合国的演讲,勾勒出了一系列令人不安的情景。
The CEOs of Anthropic and OpenAI recently declared America’s cutting-edge models are so powerful, they’re dangerous , and need to be regulated and independently tested before being released. In a rare instance of unity, they have sketched alarming scenarios in essays, social media posts and speeches to the United Nations .
在此过程中,它们正在塑造围绕“其技术应如何受到控制”的讨论。专家、分析师和前政府评估人员告诉美联社,这些公司似乎正利用相关言论争取公众支持,并试图在缺乏监管的市场中为自身的安全协议制定规则。
The CEOs of Anthropic and OpenAI recently declared America’s cutting-edge models are so powerful, they’re dangerous , and need to be regulated and independently tested before being released. In a rare instance of unity, they have sketched alarming scenarios in essays, social media posts and speeches to the United Nations .
这些目标或许与Anthropic工程师雅各布·科克森本月通过一篇X平台帖子宣布离职时所持的立场并不完全一致。他呼吁暂停技术研发,以防“超人类”系统逃脱其创造者的控制。但两家公司将他的帖子视为一个机会,借此突出自身的安全努力,并将自身定位为谨慎的行业领袖——而它们恰在走向华尔街上市、需要新资金之际。
Along the way, they are shaping the conversation around how their technology should be controlled. With their rhetoric, the companies appear to be seeking public favor and to set the terms for their own safety protocols in the unregulated market, experts, analysts and former government evaluators told The Associated Press.
唐纳德·特朗普总统一直否认有必要制定新的人工智能监管法规,并将有关人工智能危及人类的风险讨论斥为旨在帮助中国的“骗局”。
Those aims may not exactly align with what Anthropic engineer Jacob Coxon sought when he quit via a post on X this month, calling for a pause on tech development to keep “superhuman” systems from eluding their makers’ control. But the companies saw his post as an opportunity to highlight their own safety efforts and position themselves as cautious market leaders, just when they need fresh capital before going public on Wall Street.
Anthropic发言人在回答本文提问时表示,该公司多年来一直呼吁加强监管。OpenAI发言人莉兹·布尔乔瓦指出,该公司最近暂停了对其最先进模型的训练。
Those aims may not exactly align with what Anthropic engineer Jacob Coxon sought when he quit via a post on X this month, calling for a pause on tech development to keep “superhuman” systems from eluding their makers’ control. But the companies saw his post as an opportunity to highlight their own safety efforts and position themselves as cautious market leaders, just when they need fresh capital before going public on Wall Street.
“人们希望知道,人工智能正在被安全地开发,而这一切首先取决于我们这样的公司自己怎么做,”布尔乔说。
Those aims may not exactly align with what Anthropic engineer Jacob Coxon sought when he quit via a post on X this month, calling for a pause on tech development to keep “superhuman” systems from eluding their makers’ control. But the companies saw his post as an opportunity to highlight their own safety efforts and position themselves as cautious market leaders, just when they need fresh capital before going public on Wall Street.
曾领导OpenAI地缘政治团队的萨拉·肖克说,将话题转向未经证实的威胁,避开数据中心环境影响、失控的黑客事件、大规模人工智能监控以及人工智能系统在战争中的使用等两极分化议题,会让硅谷处于更为自在的位置。
President Donald Trump has shunned the need for new AI regulations, dismissing talk of risks to humanity as a “HOAX” designed to help China.
“我们又一次在讨论生存性风险,同时却降低了当今一系列其他关乎安全的关键风险的优先级。如果看看人工智能在军事技术中的应用,就能发现这些系统已经被用于杀人,”肖克说。她是加州大学伯克利分校风险与安全实验室的高级非驻研究员。
thropic spokesperson said in response to questions for this story the company has been calling for regulation for several years. An OpenAI spokesperson, Liz Bourgeois, noted the company recently paused training of its most advanced models.
随着人工智能公司从构建聊天机器人发展到具备三维感知能力的高级人工智能“世界模型”,关于应如何测试这些技术的争论一直持续不断。
“People want to know AI is being developed safely, and that starts with what companies like ours do ourselves,” Bourgeois said.
一系列问题事件表明,领先的人工智能公司未能约束自身,也未能设计安全的实验。近几个月来,领先实验室的人工智能智能体在获准脱离公司训练沙盒后入侵了外部网站,以出人意料的方式与美国政府网站互动,并似乎取得了数学突破,随后却遭到窃取数学家成果的指控。
Turning the conversation toward unproven threats — and away from polarizing issues such as data centers’ environmental impacts, uncontrolled hacking incidents, mass AI-powered surveillance and the AI systems’ use in warfare — puts Silicon Valley in a more comfortable position, said Sarah Shoker, who previously led OpenAI’s geopolitics team.
OpenAI representatives recently told reporters that they have talked with AI companies including Anthropic and Google about pausing development. They also argue they need independent auditors to check the labs’ progress, if the government won’t regulate.特朗普对监管人工智能兴趣寥寥,而人工智能一直是近期美国经济增长的主要驱动力。“人们希望知道,人工智能正在被安全地开发,而这一切首先取决于我们这样的公司自己怎么做。”布尔乔说。
“Once again we’re talking about existential risk, while deprioritizing a number of other safety-critical risks that exist today. If you look at the use of AI in military tech, you can see that these systems are already used to kill people,” said Shoker, a senior non-resident fellow at University of California, Berkeley Risk & Security Lab. As AI companies have gone from building chatbots to advanced AI “ world models ” with 3D awareness, debate has raged over how their technologies should be tested.
曾领导OpenAI地缘政治团队的萨拉·肖克说,将话题转向未经证实的威胁,避开数据中心环境影响、失控的黑客事件、大规模人工智能监控以及人工智能系统在战争中的使用等极化议题,会让硅谷处于更为自在的位置。
Problematic incidents have shown leading AI companies failing to police themselves or design safe experiments. In recent months, leading labs’ AI agents have hacked into external websites after being allowed to escape company training sandboxes, interacted with U.S. government websites in unexpected ways, and appeared to achieve a mathematical breakthrough only to face accusations of stealing mathematicians’ work.
“我们又一次在讨论生存性风险,同时却降低了当今一系列其他安全关键风险的优先级。如果看看人工智能在军事技术中的应用,就能发现这些系统已经被用于杀人。”肖克说。她是加州大学伯克利分校风险与安全实验室的高级非驻研究员。
Problematic incidents have shown leading AI companies failing to police themselves or design safe experiments. In recent months, leading labs’ AI agents have hacked into external websites after being allowed to escape company training sandboxes, interacted with U.S. government websites in unexpected ways, and appeared to achieve a mathematical breakthrough only to face accusations of stealing mathematicians’ work.
随着人工智能公司从构建聊天机器人发展到具备三维感知能力的高级人工智能“世界模型”,关于应如何测试这些技术的争论一直持续不断。
OpenAI representatives told reporters recently that they have talked with AI companies including Anthropic and Google about pausing development. They also argue they need independent auditors to check the labs’ progress, if the government won’t regulate.
一系列问题事件表明,领先的人工智能公司未能约束自身,也未能设计安全的实验。近几个月来,领先实验室的人工智能代理在获准脱离公司训练沙盒后入侵了外部网站,以出人意料的方式与美国政府网站互动,并似乎取得了数学突破,随后却遭到窃取数学家成果的指控。
Trump has shown little interest in regulating AI, which has been a major driver of recent U.S. economic growth .
OpenAI representatives recently told reporters that they have talked with AI companies including Anthropic and Google about pausing development. They also argue they need independent auditors to check the labs’ progress, if the government won’t regulate.特朗普对监管人工智能兴趣寥寥,而人工智能一直是近期美国经济增长的主要驱动力。
The Republican president himself has struck deals with Silicon Valley firms that more closely tie the economy to their successes. San Francisco venture capitalist David Sacks, who co-chairs Trump’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, has dismissed calls for an AI slowdown as fearmongering from the “Doomer Industrial Complex.” The reality is the Trump administration already evaluates some of the tech giants’ models through a little-known federal agency, the U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation. Democratic President Joe Biden created the agency in 2023, when it was heralded as a clearinghouse for labs to voluntarily submit advanced AI models for testing.
这位共和党总统本人曾与硅谷企业达成协议,这些协议将美国经济与这些企业的成功更紧密地联系在一起。旧金山的风险投资家大卫·萨克斯(David Sacks)是特朗普科技顾问委员会的联合主席,他驳斥了那些呼吁减缓人工智能发展步伐的观点,称这些观点是来自“末日论者”(即那些悲观预测未来的人)的恐慌言论。事实上,特朗普政府已经通过一个鲜为人知的联邦机构——美国人工智能标准与创新中心(U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation)来评估一些科技巨头的AI系统。该机构是由民主党总统乔·拜登在2023年创立的,当时它被宣传为一个可以让各研究实验室自愿提交其先进AI模型进行测试的平台。
The agency still exists, but the field has since expanded to include an array of independent evaluation firms, such as Berkeley, California-based nonprofit METR, which Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei suggested in a recent essay could help vet his company’s safety practices. But unlike regulated sectors like restaurants, financial services or aviation, there are no universal standards for how to test the safety and security of AI systems, said Andrew Strait, who recently left the United Kingdom’s AI Security Institute, which worked with CAISI.
虽然这个机构至今仍然存在,但相关评估工作已经扩展到了包括许多独立评估机构在内的更广泛的领域;例如总部位于加利福尼亚州伯克利的非营利组织METR。Anthropic公司的首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)在最近的一篇文章中提到,METR可以帮助评估其公司的安全措施。
Notably, the companies aren’t calling for more oversight from the government agency equipped to handle such requests, said Conrad Stosz, who previously led CAISI. Instead, they’re vowing to create their own auditing parameters and choose particular evaluators to grade them.
然而,与餐饮、金融服务或航空等受监管的行业不同,目前还没有统一的行业标准来评估AI系统的安全性和可靠性,安德鲁·斯特雷特(Andrew Strait)指出。斯特雷特此前曾任职于英国的人工智能安全研究所(AI Security Institute),该研究所曾与美国人工智能标准与创新中心合作开展相关工作。他表示:“目前,这些企业并没有要求政府机构提供更多的监管或监督。”
Stosz now works at one such evaluation lab that has worked with Anthropic, OpenAI and Google to test their systems, and also chairs the AI Evaluator Forum, which is drafting best practices for the field. He said even the forum has questions about what Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman want.
值得注意的是,这些企业并没有寻求政府机构的帮助;相反,它们承诺自行制定评估标准,并选择特定的评估机构来对自身的AI系统进行评估。斯特雷特现在就职于一家这样的评估机构,该机构曾与Anthropic、OpenAI和Google等公司合作,共同测试它们的AI系统;同时他也是“人工智能评估论坛”(AI Evaluator Forum)的主席,该论坛正在起草该领域的最佳实践规范。他表示,就连这个论坛本身也对阿莫迪以及OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)的某些主张存在疑问。
“Lots of evaluators are interested in embedding with labs and getting greater access, but it’s a little ambiguous what embedded evaluators means,” said Stosz, now head of governance at Transluce, which revealed last week that OpenAI agents hacked U.S. and Australian government websites . “Will evaluators be able to thoroughly investigate, assuming that access is granted in a way that does not undermine their independence and credibility?” For Harrison Rolfes, a Pitchbook senior research analyst, AI companies’ calls for caution seem meant to curry favor with investors ahead of public offerings and the midterms, when the political winds could shift. Democratic governors already are rushing to show they’re taking the warnings seriously.
“许多评估人员有兴趣嵌入实验室并获得更大的访问权限,但‘嵌入式评估人员’的含义还有些模糊,”现任Transluce治理主管的Stosz表示,该公司上周披露OpenAI代理入侵了美国和澳大利亚政府网站。“假设授予的访问方式不会损害其独立性和可信度,评估人员能否进行彻底调查?”对PitchBook高级研究分析师Harrison Rolfes而言,AI公司呼吁谨慎似乎意在首次公开募股(IPO)和中期选举前讨好投资者,届时政治风向可能转变。民主党州长们已争相表明他们正严肃对待这些警告。
Meanwhile, the AI giants can block smaller competitors’ growth by positioning themselves as the safest bet for investors, as well as for AI chipmakers and tech companies such as Nvidia and Google, which in turn can benefit from deals that provide the giant AI companies compute power, Rolfes said.
与此同时,Rolfes表示,AI巨头通过将自己定位为投资者、AI芯片制造商及英伟达、谷歌等科技公司的最稳妥选择,可以阻碍小型竞争对手的增长,而这些芯片制造商和科技公司反过来又能从为巨头AI公司提供算力的交易中获益。
“They’re creating a wall or a moat within this sector. … It’s genius and they’re all going to make a lot of money,” Rolfes said. “That’s where I see this heading, having the top companies in the world just creating their own wall, and then using the safety as the reason.” Not all AI companies endorse a slowdown . Chipmaker Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang said in a phone conversation with Trump — a call he took onstage at a conference — that he agrees there has been excessive AI alarmism and companies can choose to pace themselves.
“他们正在该领域内筑起一道墙或挖一条护城河……这很高明,他们都将大赚特赚,”Rolfes说。“我看事情正朝这个方向发展,世界顶尖公司只顾筑起自己的高墙,再以安全为由加以辩解。”并非所有AI公司都赞成放缓脚步。芯片制造商英伟达CEO黄仁勋在与特朗普的电话通话中——他在会议现场接听了该通话——表示,他认同存在过度的AI恐慌论,公司可以自行决定节奏。
Daniel Kokotajlo, who left OpenAI in 2024 over concerns similar to Coxon’s, said he continues to worry that AI systems are advancing faster than companies can control, and fears existential scenarios such as AI’s potential to supercharge the creation of bioweapons, nuclear war or other catastrophes.
Daniel Kokotajlo因与Coxon相似的担忧于2024年离开OpenAI,他表示继续担忧AI系统的进步速度超过了公司的控制能力,并担心存在性风险场景,例如AI可能助发生物武器制造、核战争或其他灾难。
“All of this talk is actually a way to sort of dissipate and redirect this political will that has built up, rather than actually channeling that political will to do something good,” said Kokotajlo, who now leads an AI safety advocacy organization and said he counseled Coxon before he resigned. “Just please don’t do the thing that’s going to get us all killed.”
“所有这些谈论实际上是一种消解和转移已积聚的政治意愿的方式,而非真正引导这种政治意愿去做些好事,”现领导一个AI安全倡导组织的Kokotajlo说道,他表示曾在Coxon辞职前对其进行过劝说。“拜托,别做那种会害死我们所有人的事。”
“All of this talk is actually a way to sort of dissipate and redirect this political will that has built up, rather than actually channeling that political will to do something good,” said Kokotajlo, who now leads an AI safety advocacy organization and said he counseled Coxon before he resigned. “Just please don’t do the thing that’s going to get us all killed.”