气候模型显示，这一现象几乎可以肯定不仅将持续到今年秋冬，还将延续至2027年春季。
and getting ready for a long stay. Climate models indicate the phenomenon is nearly certain to last not just through this fall and winter, but also into spring 2027.
哥伦比亚大学气候科学家阿扎尔·埃赫桑本周在媒体简报会上展示了一张图表，显示厄尔尼诺现象持续到春季的概率为“100%至99%”。“我写的是‘近乎确定’，但其实是100%，”他说。
In a briefing to the media this week, Columbia University climate scientist Azhar Ehsan presented a chart showing probability of El Niño lasting until spring was “100% to 99%.” “I wrote near-certain but it’s 100%,” he said.
埃赫桑并非唯一做出此类预测的人。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）气候预测中心也认同，厄尔尼诺现象有100%的可能性将持续约六个月。
Ehsan is not alone in his predictions. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center agrees El Niño is 100% sticking around for about six more months.
气候预测中心显示了厄尔尼诺现象（以红色条形表示）在每个三个月周期（八/九/十月，随后是九/十/十一月，以此类推）中出现的概率。（图：NOAA/CPC）预计此次厄尔尼诺现象不仅持续时间长，而且强度大。其发展速度比有记录以来的任何厄尔尼诺现象都要快，预计将在秋季或冬季达到“超强”级别。
The Climate Prediction Center indicates the chance of El Niño (seen as a red bar) in each three-month period (August/September/October, followed by September/October/November, and so on). (Map: NOAA/CPC) This El Niño isn’t just expected to be long but also strong. It’s accelerating faster than any El Niño in recorded history and expected to reach “super” strength in the fall or winter.
因此，它将对未来几个月的天气产生“相当重大的影响”，Nexstar首席气象学家布莱恩·詹姆斯表示。
As a result, it will have a “pretty substantial impact” on the weather we see over the next several months, said Brian James, Nexstar chief meteorologist.
詹姆斯说，它已经对飓风季产生了影响，助长了太平洋的大量活动，但让大西洋异常平静。
It has already been making an impact on hurricane season, James said, fueling lots of activity in the Pacific but keeping things extra-quiet in the Atlantic.
随着冬季临近，厄尔尼诺现象对该国北半部和南半部的影响将截然不同。总体而言，北部各州将比常年更干燥、更温暖，而南部各州将更凉爽、更潮湿。（详见本文顶部视频中詹姆斯的更详细预报。）“中部地区仍可能偶尔遭遇冷空气南下，北部大平原仍将经历寒流，是的，美国北部仍至少会有一些降雪，但总体模式不利于美国北部出现大量降雪，”詹姆斯说。
As we head into winter, how El Niño plays out will be very different for the northern half of the country and the southern half Broadly speaking, the northern states will be drier and warmer than normal, while southern states will be cooler and wetter. (See James’ more detailed forecast in the video at the top of this story.)“We can still get occasional shots of colder air that drop into the central U.S., and we’re still going to get cold air to go across the northern Plains, and yes, there’s still going to be at least some snow across the northern part of the U.S., but the overall pattern does not favor a whole lot of snow across the northern U.S.,” James said.
虽然看起来我们还将持续受到厄尔尼诺现象的影响一段时间，但它不会始终保持巅峰强度。气候预测中心预计，它将于明年春初前后从“极强”减弱为“强”，最终过渡到“中等”级别。
While it looks like we will be stuck with El Niño for a while, it won’t be at peak strength the entire time. The Climate Prediction Center expects it to weaken from “very strong” to “strong” sometime by early spring, and then eventually move into the “moderate” category.