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霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势持续,伊朗与美国距离达成协议愈发遥远Strait of Hormuz tensions linger as Iran and US move further from a deal

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在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普拒绝伊朗提出的旨在重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的外交解决方案数小时后,据伊朗媒体报道,该海峡内传出了爆炸声。

Hours after US President Donald Trump rejected a diplomatic solution put forward by Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, explosions were heard in the waterway, according to Iranian media.

有报道称,在霍尔木兹海峡靠近伊朗南部克什姆岛的区域发生了爆炸事件,疑似有多枚反舰导弹和无人机被发射向途经该海峡的船只。尽管伊朗当局尚未正式确认当天确实发生了袭击事件,但该海域的航运活动仍持续受到威胁——上周就有一艘印度货船在此遭遇袭击,导致一名船员死亡。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)宣称,任何未与伊朗当局取得协调的船只都不得进入该海峡。

Reports of blasts near southern Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz suggested that multiple antiship missiles and drones were fired at vessels transiting the waterway against Tehran’s wishes. While Iranian authorities did not confirm any attacks in the Strait of Hormuz that day, shipping continues to be attacked in the waters, including an Indian cargo ship last week, which killed a sailor The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains that the strait is closed to any ship that does not coordinate with Iranian authorities. On Sunday afternoon, it released video of what it said was a second US underwater drone seized this month.

周日下午,伊朗方面公布了他们声称是本月缴获的第二架美国水下无人机的视频。

While Iranian authorities did not confirm any attacks in the Strait of Hormuz that day, shipping continues to be attacked in the waters, including an Indian cargo ship last week, which killed a sailor The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains that the strait is closed to any ship that does not coordinate with Iranian authorities. On Sunday afternoon, it released video of what it said was a second US underwater drone seized this month.

伊朗方面已要求途经霍尔木兹海峡的航运公司使用伊朗当局批准的临时航线,并支付相关费用;同时表示,除非美国解除对伊朗港口的封锁,否则该海峡不会完全重新开放。

Tehran has issued instructions to shipping companies transiting the Strait of Hormuz to use a temporary route approved by Iranian authorities and pay relevant fees. But it has also said the strait will not fully reopen until the US blockade on Iranian ports ends.

伊朗波斯湾海峡管理局周六宣布,将对任何命令船员使用未经授权航线的航运公司列入黑名单。该机构还发布了一份来自某艘未具名船东的“道歉声明”,称船东是出于商业压力才试图强行通过该海峡的。

Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority announced on Saturday that it would blacklist any shipping charterer company which orders crews to use routes it considers to be unauthorised.

华盛顿方面仍坚称,其军舰已成功引导油轮通过其他路线离开了霍尔木兹海峡。美国能源部长克里斯·赖特周日对福克斯新闻表示,目前途经该海峡的原油运输量平均每天约为1300万桶。

It also published what it described as an apology from an unnamed shipowner blaming commercial pressure from its charterer for trying to pass through the strait. Washington still insists that its warships are successfully guiding oil tankers out of the strait via a different route. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News on Sunday that the “running average” of crude oil in transit was nearly 13 million barrels per day.

美国中央司令部9月19日发布的行动报告显示,在过去两个月内,美军协助将超过10亿桶原油运出了波斯湾。

Washington still insists that its warships are successfully guiding oil tankers out of the strait via a different route. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News on Sunday that the “running average” of crude oil in transit was nearly 13 million barrels per day.

美国军方还表示,他们已重新部署了122艘商船,以执行对伊朗港口的海上封锁措施,从而阻止所有伊朗原油的出口。

A September 19 operational update by US Central Command claimed that its forces had helped move more than one billion barrels of crude out of the Gulf over roughly two months.

德黑兰方面声称,美国提供了关于霍尔木兹海峡航运情况的虚假信息,目的是为了对该关键水道施加控制。自2月28日美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争以来,该地区的航运活动一直受到严重干扰。

The US military also says its forces have redirected 122 commercial vessels to enforce the naval blockade of Iran’s ports halting all Iranian crude exports. Tehran has claimed that the US is providing false information regarding Strait of Hormuz traffic to project control over the key waterway. Shipping has been severely disrupted since the US and Israel started their war on Iran on February 28.

伦敦国王学院副教授安德烈亚斯·克里格(Andreas Krieg)指出,伊朗采取海上攻击的策略使得冲突带来的经济影响已经超出了伊朗本土的边界。虽然伊朗因战争破坏和美国的海上封锁及制裁而遭受了经济损失,但“认为这种压力会导致伊朗屈服”是一种错误的判断。

Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King’s College London, said Iran’s strategy of launching maritime attacks has spread the economic costs of the conflict beyond its borders. While Iran has suffered economically from war damages, the US naval blockade and sanctions, it would be a mistake “to assume that reaching that threshold produces submission”.

克里格表示:“伊朗接下来的行动很可能会加剧海湾地区的紧张局势——他们可能会采取更激进的措施来报复美国的压力,比如在霍尔木兹海峡拦截更多船只、攻击能源基础设施、加大对巴布-曼德布海峡(Bab al-Mandeb)地区胡塞武装势力的压力,或者利用与伊朗结盟的势力来干扰沙特的替代出口路线。”

“The next Iranian move is therefore likely to be an attempt to increase the pain experienced by the Gulf rather than simply absorb further American pressure,” Krieg said.

“我们已经在看到这些行动所带来的连锁反应:霍尔木兹海峡、红海以及沙特基础设施所承受的压力正在相互影响。”

“That could mean more aggressive vessel interdictions in Hormuz, attacks on energy infrastructure, greater Houthi pressure around Bab al-Mandeb and pressure from Iranian-aligned groups against alternative Saudi export routes. We are already seeing how pressure on Hormuz, the Red Sea and Saudi infrastructure can interact.” The flight deck of the USS George Washington aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, September 11, 2026 [Ed Ou/Reuters] More escalation on the way At the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Iran projected a message of defiance while also proposing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if its seven conditions were met.

2026年9月11日,美国“乔治·华盛顿”号航空母舰在阿拉伯海上的甲板画面( 项条件得到满足,他们愿意在一周内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

“That could mean more aggressive vessel interdictions in Hormuz, attacks on energy infrastructure, greater Houthi pressure around Bab al-Mandeb and pressure from Iranian-aligned groups against alternative Saudi export routes. We are already seeing how pressure on Hormuz, the Red Sea and Saudi infrastructure can interact.” The flight deck of the USS George Washington aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, September 11, 2026 [Ed Ou/Reuters] More escalation on the way At the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Iran projected a message of defiance while also proposing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if its seven conditions were met.

这些要求主要包括:解除对伊朗的封锁、解冻被冻结的伊朗资金,以及停止所有方面的攻击(包括以色列对黎巴嫩的军事行动)。这些要求实质上就是要求美国回到美国与以色列在6月份达成的谅解备忘录的框架内行事。德黑兰方面强调,重新开放霍尔木兹海峡必须通过已经与阿曼(霍尔木兹海峡沿岸唯一拥有领海的国家)达成的双边协议来实现。

They included lifting the blockade on Iran, the release of frozen Iranian funds and an end to attacks on all fronts, including Israel’s assault on Lebanon. The demands mostly amounted to a return to the June memorandum of understanding between the US and Israel Tehran has added that reopening the strait must be undertaken through a bilateral arrangement already finalised with Oman, the only other country with territorial waters in Hormuz.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对记者表示,他拒绝了这些要求;但伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉吉在周日表示,伊朗方面坚持这些条件,并将通过巴基斯坦、卡塔尔和阿曼等调解国等待美国的正式回应。

US President Donald Trump told reporters he rejected the offer, but Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday they were adamant about the conditions and would await an official response through mediators, such as Pakistan, Qatar and Oman.

伊朗武装部队发言人阿博尔法兹尔·谢卡奇警告称,如果美国进一步干涉霍尔木兹海峡的事务,伊朗将采取强硬措施予以回应。他说:“美国除了从西亚地区撤军外别无选择;他们撤得越早,遭受的损失就越小,该地区也会因此变得更加安全。”

Abolfazl Shekarchi, chief spokesman of the Iranian armed forces, warned that if the US further intervenes in the Strait of Hormuz, “it will get slapped”. “The Americans have no way out other than withdrawing from the West Asia region. The sooner they leave, the fewer losses they will incur and the region will certainly become safe after that,” he said.

伊朗陆军发言人穆罕默德·阿克拉米尼亚则表示,美国的处境日益恶化,甚至可能导致美国对伊朗发动新的军事攻击。

Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said conditions were deteriorating so badly for the US that it might launch another “military aggression” on Iran.

克里格分析称,由于美国试图通过制裁手段孤立伊朗,而伊朗无法采取相应的经济报复措施,因此伊朗将不得不继续在霍尔木兹海峡问题上采取强硬态度。他说:“最有可能的情况是双方会陷入长期的消耗战,而不是立即恢复开战初期的大规模军事行动。在未来几周内,预计针对油轮、美国支持的航运设施以及地区基础设施的攻击或袭击事件会继续发生;随后美国可能会对伊朗革命卫队的海上资产、沿海导弹设施或参与相关行动的船只发动有限规模的打击。这种针锋相对的局势已经在霍尔木兹海峡重新出现。”

Krieg said that as the US moves to isolate Iran via sanctions, Tehran, unable to respond with mutual financial measures against Washington, will be forced to rely on continued coercion in the Strait of Hormuz. “The most likely level remains controlled attrition rather than an immediate return to the massive air campaign of the opening months,” Krieg said. “Over the coming weeks, I would expect further attacks or attempted attacks on tankers, US-enabled shipping and regional infrastructure, followed by limited US strikes against IRGC maritime assets, coastal missile positions, drones or vessels involved in those operations. That tit-for-tat cycle has already re-emerged around Hormuz.”