库克政治报告创始人查理·库克周日表示，民主党在11月中期选举后重夺众议院已是“板上钉钉”的结论，而他们夺回参议院的机会看起来“非常现实”。
Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook on Sunday said that it has been a “done deal” conclusion that Democrats are likely to retake the House after the November midterm elections, while their chances of claiming the Senate look “very realistic.”
“我完全同意，众议院已经有相当长一段时间基本上是板上钉钉了，”库克在接受ABC新闻《本周》节目主持人玛莎·拉达茨采访时说。“但参议院方面，一年前认为参议院可能易手并不现实，但现在非常现实。”
“I would completely agree that the House has been kind of a done deal for a good while,” Cook said in an interview on ABC News’s “This Week” with Martha Raddatz. “But the Senate, a year ago, it wasn’t realistic to think that the Senate might flip, but now it’s very realistic.”
“我是说，这很正常。在中期选举中，每个党派都会遇到这种情况：你们的人感到幻灭，投票率低迷，”库克说。“对方则士气高涨，大量投票，而中间那些摇摆不定的独立选民开始倒向对方。”他补充说，预计民主党将在众议院赢得约20个席位，在参议院赢得四到五个席位。库克表示，他在密歇根、北卡罗来纳、阿拉斯加、爱荷华、新罕布什尔、明尼苏达以及“可能”包括堪萨斯州的参议院竞选中看到了这一结果。
“I mean, the thing is, this is normal. It’s happened to every party in midterm elections where your people get disillusioned and turn out at low levels,” Cook said. “The other side is energized, turning out big numbers and then those fickle independent voters in the middle start breaking against you.” He added that he expects Democrats to pick up around 20 seats in the House and four or five in the Senate. Cook said he sees this outcome in Senate with races in Michigan, North Carolina, Alaska, Iowa, New Hampshire, Minnesota and “maybe” Kansas.
“但在密歇根，焦点在于特朗普总统，”库克指的是民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德与前众议员迈克·罗杰斯（密歇根州共和党人）之间的参议院竞选。“这确实伤害很大。但当你有一个两极分化、有争议的民主党提名人，就像在密歇根州那样，这会把关注点从特朗普身上转移开，转移到民主党人身上。”
“But in Michigan, it’s where the focus is on President Trump,” Cook said, referring to the Senate race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.). “Boy, it’s really hurting. But when you have a Democrat nominee that’s somewhat polarizing, controversial, like you have in Michigan, that takes the attention away from Trump and goes on the Democrat.”
库克说，这场竞选不太可能是“蓝色浪潮”，而是“红色暗流”，他说浪潮会显得更“统一”，而“拖垮”共和党人的现象“在某些地方比其他地方更严重”。《国会山报》的合作伙伴Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）预测，民主党在11月重夺众议院的概率为72%，赢回参议院的可能性为54%。
Cook said the race is not likely to be a “blue wave” but a “red undertow,” saying that a wave would appear more “uniform” and that “pulling down” Republicans has hit “some places more than other places.” The Hill’s partner Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) forecasted a 72 percent probability that Democrats retake the House and a 54 percent possibility of winning back the Senate after November.
民调专家表示，预测民主党将在两院均获胜的前景，反映在特朗普总统暴跌的支持率、民主党初选中的高涨热情，以及共和党候选人因伊朗战争导致物价飙升而公开与总统决裂等现象中。
Polling experts have said that forecasts favoring Democratic victories in both chambers are reflected in President Trump’s tanking approval ratings, Democratic enthusiasm in the primaries and GOP candidates publicly breaking with the president over the Iran war’s effect on soaring prices.
最近的一项路透社/益普索民调显示，总统的支持率跌至历史最低点，为32%。在共和党人中，72%表示赞同其表现，低于前一周的82%。紧随其第二次就职典礼后，共和党支持率曾高达91%。
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows the president’s approval rating sunk to an all-time low, at 32 percent. Among Republicans, 72 percent said they approved of his performance, down from 82 percent the week before. GOP approval sat at 91 percent right after his second inauguration.
共和党对伊朗战争的支持也在下降，一些人如罗杰斯呼吁冲突“结束，并迅速结束”，因为自2月冲突爆发以来，汽油价格飙升。
Republican support for the Iran war has also been on the decline, with some like Rogers calling for the conflict “to end, and end quickly,” as gas prices have soared since the conflict began in February.