在您的搜索结果中查看更多我们的报道。一位民主党策略师预测共和党将在2026年中期选举中遭遇“惨败” —— 并以德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特出人意料的胶着连任竞选为证。
See more of our coverage in your search results. A Democratic strategist is predicting a Republican “wipeout” in the 2026 midterms — and pointing to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s surprisingly tight Texas reelection race as proof.
资深民主党策略师保罗·贝加拉周日表示，阿博特对阵民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨的民调数字可能预示着11月将出现更广泛的民主党浪潮。
Veteran Democratic strategist Paul Begala said Sunday that Abbott’s numbers against Democrat Gina Hinojosa could signal a much broader Democratic surge in November.
“这不会是一场胜利，”比尔·克林顿1992年大选获胜的缔造者之一在CNN的《国家现状》节目中说。
“This is not going to be a win,” the architect of Bill Clinton’s 1992 win said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
“也不会是一波浪潮。这将是一场惨败。” 这场德州竞争已大幅收紧 —— 这位共和党中坚的民调领先优势已从7个百分点缩减至RealClearPolitics平均值中的仅1.8个百分点。
“And it’s not going to be a wave. It’s going to be a wipeout.” The Texas contest has tightened considerably — with the Republican stalwart’s polls falling from a 7-point lead to just 1.8 point in the RealClearPolitics average. Abbott, who is seeking an unprecedented fourth term, is still the odd-on favorite to win, but he clinched reelection in 2022 by nearly 11 percentage points.
阿博特正在寻求前所未有的第四个任期，目前仍是获胜的大热门，但他在2022年以近11个百分点的优势赢得连任。
Republican strategist Ashley Davis pushed back on Begala’s predictions, arguing that a Democratic Senate takeover is not inevitable, and that the Republicans are unlikely to suffer the kind of historic House collapse Democrats experienced in 2010.
共和党策略师阿什利·戴维斯反驳了贝加拉的预测，辩称民主党夺取参议院控制权并非不可避免，共和党不太可能遭遇民主党在2010年经历的那种历史性众议院溃败。
Republican strategist Ashley Davis pushed back on Begala’s predictions, arguing that a Democratic Senate takeover is not inevitable, and that the Republicans are unlikely to suffer the kind of historic House collapse Democrats experienced in 2010.
“这是一场针对特朗普的选举吗？是的。”戴维斯说。“但我现在认为我们会失去参议院吗？大概率不会。” 此外，民主党目前的声望远低于以往浪潮选举时期。2018年，泛民主党与共和党的民调中民主党领先12个百分点。现在，仅领先5个百分点。
“Is this an election against Trump? Yes.” Davis said. “Do I think we’re going to lose the Senate right now? Probably not.” Additionally, the Dem party is much less popular now than it was during previous wave elections. In 2018, the generic Democrat v. Republican polling had Dems up by 12 points. Now, it’s just 5 points. Still, Abbott’s race against state Rep. Hinojosa is drawing national attention — and Abbot is no ordinary incumbent.
尽管如此，阿博特与州众议员伊诺霍萨的对决正引发全国关注 —— 阿博特并非寻常的现任者。
The 68-year-old Republican has been Texas governor since 2015. Before becoming governor, he served as the Texas attorney general and on the Texas Supreme Court.
这位68岁的共和党人自2015年起担任德州州长。成为州长前，他曾任德州检察长和德州最高法院大法官。第四个完整任期最终将使他成为德州历史上任职时间最长的州长。
The 68-year-old Republican has been Texas governor since 2015. Before becoming governor, he served as the Texas attorney general and on the Texas Supreme Court. A fourth full term would eventually make him the longest-serving governor in Texas history.
他的竞选团队报告称，截至6月30日手头现金超过6700万美元，并表示在2026年上半年筹集了超过2800万美元。其他竞选财务文件显示，他在后续申报中的竞选资金超过1亿美元。
His campaign reported more than $67 million in cash on hand as of June 30 and said it raised more than $28 million during the first half of 2026. Other campaign-finance puts his war chest above $100 million in later filings.
然而，根据德克萨斯政治项目的数据，他在过去四年的工作支持率下降了3%——这给了伊诺霍萨充足的攻击空间。
However, his job approval rating has plummeted 3% over the past four years, according to the Texas Politics Project — giving Hinojosa plenty of room to attack.
52岁的奥斯汀律师伊诺霍萨试图将竞选焦点放在生活成本、公立学校、能源和大公司的影响力上。她辩称，在阿博特领导十多年后，德克萨斯人已准备好迎接变革。
Hinojosa, a 52-year-old lawyer from Austin, has sought to make the race about the cost of living, public schools, energy and the influence of large corporations. She’s argued that Texans are ready for a change after more than a decade of Abbott’s leadership.
贝加拉辩称，阿博特在某些民调中支持率低于50%，对现任者来说尤为不利。
Begala argued that Abbott’s position below 50% in some polls is particularly ominous for an incumbent.
“策略师看民调时会问：现任者在哪里？”贝加拉说。“如果现任者低于50%，他就麻烦大了。”贝加拉还将功劳归于伊诺霍萨和同为民主党人的州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科——后者正在参加关注度高得多的参议院竞选——他们激发了对特朗普总统感到幻灭的选民。
“When strategists read polls, they say where’s the incumbent?” Begala said. “And if the incumbent’s below 50, he’s in big trouble.” Begala also credited Hinojosa and fellow Dem state Rep. James Talarico — who is running in the much higher profile Senate race — with energizing voters who have become disillusioned with President Trump.
“我们国家非常脆弱，吉娜正在进行一场我认为很棒的竞选，与詹姆斯·塔拉里科一起激发所有那些被特朗普彻底吓退的选民，”他补充道。
“We have a very vulnerable country, and Gina is, I think, running a great campaign along with James Talarico in energizing all these voters who have been so turned off by Trump,” he added.